A review of Kansasâ roster leads to two pretty obvious conclusions â the 2014-15 Jayhawks will have an overwhelming wealth of perimeter talent. But the talent in the post, depth-wise, is questionable.
Arguably, from a pure talent perspective, three of the four best players on this team could be Wayne Selden, Brannen Greene, and Kelly Oubre (with Alexander the fourth).
At 6â5â, 6â7â, and 6â7â, those three perimeter players on the floor at the same time would create significant match up problems for any team. None, of course, can play on the ball. So the only option is to play those three at the 2, 3 and 4 spots if they are to be on the floor at the same time.
Rewind to the Missouri Tigers of 2011-2012. MU played Kim English at the 4. Self started out both contests with TRob guarding English, only to relent and remove Withey from the game because our 4 couldnât guard their 4. Frank Haith, for all of his failings, simply played his best players.
For the 2014-15 Jayhawks, we know that Ellis and Alexander will start in the post, donât we? I mean, it would take either injury, ineligibility, or some other cataclysmic event to start anyone else on KUâs roster in the post, right? So thatâs set. No arguments there.
With KUâs perimeter rotation, there is the significant chance that Brannen Greene just wonât play. Or Kelly Oubre. We know three things âfor sureâ on the perimeter:
- Self will have a base four man perimeter rotation, with a fifth guy getting scraps. Itâs how it always is. Itâs how it always will be.
- Of the four perimeter rotation players, two will have primary ball handling skills. That means two of Mason, Frankamp, Graham and Mykhailiuk. We know Selden does not qualify. Donât really about Mykhailiuk yet.
- We know Selden will be part of the four man rotation.
With those three âfor suresâ, that leaves Oubre vs. Greene -- both competing for minutes at the 3 with the loser getting the same role as Greene did this past season (scraps). Why not give one of them some minutes, perhaps 10 per game, at the 4?
Given their respective talent levels, they both demand playing time. Certainly both are more talented players than Lucas, Traylor, or Mickelson. So when Alexander or Ellis leave the game, whatâs the best option? Perhaps half of that time would be going small.
We have talked many times about KU going small. Rarely has coach Self gone that route. But heading into next season, Self has perhaps the least talented post grouping that he has had in many years. Add to that a presumptive freshman starter (Alexander) and Ellisâ defensive liabilities, and you have the chance that our post group will be our Achillesâ heel. Certainly, it could be our weak link. We donât have senior Tarick Black and rim protector Joel Embiid. Instead, we have 6â8â Cliff Alexander and the inclusion of Traylor, Lucas, or Mickelson as the 3rd post player. The third post player will still get big minutes. Shifting small for a larger percentage of game action will limit the 4th post playerâs minutes more substantially.
Ask yourself this â how does an opposing 4 effectively guard Oubre or Greene? Rarely will it happen.
The next question will be whether Oubre or Greene can guard the opposing 4. But what we have seen, nearly definitively, is that talented teams that go small dictate an adjustment by bigger teams. Itâs easier to double team the bigger post player than guard the smaller player out on the floor. Certainly, there are times that it may not work. But generally, it does. If opposing teams answer by going small as well, Iâll take our talent any day.
In an 8 man rotation, the best use of our talent is to go with two ball handlers, along with Selden, Oubre, Greene; then Alexander, Ellis, and say Mickelson. Then Traylor or Lucas for scrap minutes. Last season, four post guys got rotation minutes. This season, the best use of our talent might be to transfer some of the minutes given to the 4th post player to the 5th perimeter player. Get more talent on the floor. Get your best players on the floor.
Self has said Brannen Greene is an NBA talent. Self has never said that about Jamari Traylor. Using the pick and pop 4 can provide offensive diversity, increase pace, exploit match-ups, change the flow of the game when needed, and create better offensive production. And for the time when we utilize this change-up, Self can scheme the defense to cover match-up issues, so long as the match-up is not completely overwhelming.
Iâm hoping that Self strongly considers large doses of a small lineup. This option, perhaps for 25% of the game, can get our most talented players on the floor. Being able to play both big and small, having significant in-season experience with both, and getting guys comfortable in those roles, can only help come March. And that may, in the end, translate to a more successful season.