The correlation between summer team Shoe brand and school shoe brand is significant, but not 1 to 1.
See these USA Today stories.
http://usatodayhss.com/2014/basketball-recruits-shoe-contracts-nike-adidas ↗
Looking at Shoe Brands and recruiting asymmetries in D1 feels like astronomers and physicists looking at the Milky Way Galaxy and saying something is missing. There aren't enough stars here to form the gravity needed to hold this thing together. The stars are part of it, but there has got to be something more.
The astronomers and physicists finally figured out there was a black hole at the center holding our Milky Way together.
What might be the black hole at the center of D1 recruiting?
Pitino speaks of a reduced recruiting pool open to adidas coaches vis a vis Nike coaches, something the data seems to suggest.
But this does not explain the imperfect correlation either.
Hurt feelings and greener pastures and coach sizzle explain some of it. Relationships can sour and persons can change loyalties easily. But this does not seem to explain how much lack of correlation there is.
The only hint I have right now is the voice of 100 in my ear writing about World Wide Wes once upon a time.
Cal and some others interviewed in the USA Today stories seem to put some care into the wording of their answers that suggest shoe brand is not driving things. And Nike officials declined to answer questions. Some parents said they were in control of their children's recruiting.
But no one is saying that nothing else is involved, and not a parent, player, coach or reporter, mentioned a word about agents or agent runners.
Hmmmmm.