@wrwlumpy
This element of luck that your raise is so appropriate to introduce into the discussion of Self and all great coaches that have great runs.
John Wooden had lots of luck. One of the things that has bothered me most about those that try to degrade Wooden's accomplishments is that they try to explain it away by corruption and never by luck. I have always argued that Wooden started winning once he stepped up to the same level of corruption as was then prevalent at many of the basketball schools Wooden had to compete with. But that only created a level playing field for him. Wooden needed sustained excellence and lots of luck to tip the level playing field far in his favor. Wooden got a lot of luck when Walton made 21 of 22 FGAs in a national final game. Why can't people understand that? UCLA played excellently that game, but Walton's freakishly peak performance, which has to have had some luck involved in it coming the night it came. was decisive.
Does anyone remember Christian Laettner's turn around half court desperation shot that won Coach K one of his rings. Pure luck.
You have to be lucky to be great.
It is so self evident.
But people struggle with the notion.
Persons are allowed to be all bad, or all good.
All skill, or all luck.
The way I think of it is like this:
All great persons at anything in any field have vast amounts of skill, vast amounts of work ethic, and vast amounts of luck.
They have all three.
Michael Jordan was just incomparably luck in addition to being incomparably hard working and incomparably talented. He came along for much of his career after Bird's back prevented him from being great, and Magic's AIDs took him away from the game. That was incomparable luck for Jordan. How flipping lucky was Jordan to get a coach like Jackson that was a hall of fame that could win rings with Jordan, with Shaq, and with Kobe. Jackson was an insanely great coach, who proved that he didn't need Jordan to win rings. But Jackson to was incredibly lucky. What other coach had Jordan, Shaq and Kobe? Insane luck. Not something Jackson could plan out. All he could do was seize the opportunities.
Wilt was not so lucky, even though he was incomparably hard working and incomparably talented.
All someone has to do is get to know some world class scientists and you will learn about the importance of luck. The great universities are full of brilliant scientists that put together a great body of work, and are respected by their fellow scientists. But only a few get lucky and discover something of lasting and seminal importance. Some scientists are just lucky at getting good results in experiments. Some scientists are just unlucky. Erwin Shroedinger gets credit for formulating Quantum Mechanics. But there was an American mathematician and physicist that formulated quantum mechanics at the same moment. He was a little late getting his stuff published. He never got credit, even though everyone knew this great American scientist knew as much or more about quantum mechanics than Schroedinger did. Shroedinger was in the right place--Europe--at the right time, and he was the right age with the right constellation of acquaintances. He was lucky. This American scientist was not lucky.
Luck is fracking real.
It is a major, major force in the universe.
No one has really figured out how to formalize it, but it is as real as gravity that no one can figure out either.
Chalmer's The Shot?
Luck.
Luck for Sherron to make the steal.
Luck for Sherron falling down to get it to Chalmers.
Luck for Chalmers to have enough time.
Luck for Chalmers to make it off balance.
Chalmers had two NBA rings for Chrissakes.
Chalmers is not one of the 10 best players in the NBA.
But Chalmers has 2 NBA rings.
Chalmers is a great basketball player and he is lucky.
When you trying to find a great coach, you are looking for a guy with great talent, great work ethic, and great luck.
Whenever you find such a guy, hire him and be grateful that you guy lucky finding a lucky coach.
