That UK is the hardest team to beat in a long time (IMHO since each of Lew Alcindor/Kareem Jabbar's UCLA teams, and two of Walton's teams, each of which had an undefeated ring season if I recall correctly--@JayHawkFanToo augment me here) we are in full agreement.
My point however is that KU's BAD BALL is much, much, much more systematic than what UConn used to beat UK.
I think Frank Mason, if his knees hold up, is absolutely the right guard to do what Shabazz did, AND I think KU's BAD BALL, which focuses and achieves to an unprecedented degree, disruption of flow, rather than strips, TOs, and blocks, is the team and system that if it played perfectly, that could most likely beat UK.
UK is simply too talented and too favored by referees to be able to be beaten by teams that just modulate tempo and play the way UK has seen over 35 games plus six before the season started.
UK has to see something they have never seen before and something that forces their young players into making an almost constant series of choices about attack coming from all directions and all players.
KU is the only team able to do it. No one else in college basketball can really pull out bigs away from the basket with one player and then attack from that player, or from four others.
No one has the defense AND that kind of offense that have been intentionally designed in combination to disrupt flow end to end.
UK has had it slowed down on them. It has been roughed up. It has seen all of the conventional approaches to overcoming greater talent.
But it has not seen BAD BALL.
UK is a low possession team.
Cal schemed UK precisely as a low possession team because he had 4 footers and he knew everyone would slow the ball down and try to muddy it up on UK all season. He has even prepared his team for having its centers pulled out. Cal was very, very smart to do what he did.
But...
BAD BALL can be played at different tempos.
BAD BALL is about shrinking impact space and attacking from all points on the court.
It is about disrupting flow, not winning disruption stats, and this UK has never played against.
It appears to me that that first KU-UK game has focused every move Self has made the rest of the season about developing capabilities aimed to contend with a team like UK.
UK is just a better version of what it was when we played them the first game of our season after they had already played 6 games.
KU is not only not the same team, it is playing a kind of basketball UK has never seen that has been being developed the entire season to deal sooner or later with meeting them.
UK is designed to do what it does no matter who it meets.
KU is designed to disrupt the flow of whatever another team does on both ends of the floor.
Something has to give in this sort of an encounter.
Self designed the confrontation this way.
Self is a defensive coach and this solution of his is the thinking of a defensive mind.
KU is now effectively playing defense on both ends of the floor.
Everything KU does is designed to disrupt flow, to stop runs, to create scoring opportunities at the FT line where how good UK is does not matter.
Self's logic distills to this: it is easier to disrupt flow than it is to impose flow.
And if a team with superior talent cannot flow, cannot stay in any rhythm, its greater talent can be defended, and outscored at the FT line, and on a good trey day, beaten with as few as 10 3ptas, and as many as 25 3ptas.
I don't know if KU will be whole enough to play a perfect BAD BALL game if it survives to meet UK.
But if it is, and if it plays a perfect BAD BALL game, which will not look at all like a perfect Good Ball game, unless UK plays a perfect, slow, Dribble Drive game to counter it, KU will win.
I don't really think UK can play a perfect, slow Dribble Drive game with rhythm and flow against KU.
I think KU can play a perfect BAD BALL game against UK.
I am only saying its possible.
Nine out of ten games KU loses.
But when you are trying to scheme a team to beat the most talent stacked team of not only the talent stack era, but in at least 40 years, and probably in the entire history of college basketball, I am pretty confident that Self has built the only mouse trap that could do it even once.
You can bet Cal has his entire team practicing against each other driving into each other to guard intentionally shrunken impact space. Cal knows exactly what Self is doing. But the beauty of BAD BALL is that even when you know its coming, even when you practice defending against attack from all directions and positions into you, it is still disrupting your flow and breaking up your rhythmn and flow.
Frank, Wayne, Devonte, Kelly, Perry, Brannen, and Svi can all break out in canned heat from three.
Everyone but Brannen can drive it into their man and draw a foul.
Not a one of them fear being blocked any more.
They only thing they have to keep focused on is to keep driving in so tight UK has to either commit to the block and our guys make sure our shooting elbows make contact with some part of the Kentucky defender every play, or if the Kentucky defender does not commit, that our guys reverse under the basket so the rim is between them and their man, and if help comes to stop them on the reverse side of the rim, they either make shooting elbow contact with the help defender, or kick to the man he has left behind that has floated out to the trey stripe. Or more likely simply attacks from where he is. This is the essence of attack basketball. Short NBA players have been playing this way at least since the days of Bill Russell or back to Tom Gola. KU players have to learn to use the rim as a screen on almost every shot. And if they can't use it as a screen, then reset, or kick for the trey. We've got the athleticism to do this at almost every position. This is not a pipe dream at all. Basketball can be played this way.
But we've got to pray we can win a couple of close skirmishes before we even get to UK.
I am much more worried about getting to UK than I am about UK. We have been designed to beat UK. But we are going to see ways of playing that are new to us before then.
Most of our guys are young and have never been to a Madness; this is our biggest enemy the first weekend.
We've got to get guys believing they can play at this level and able to recognize, and react correctly to styles of play they are seeing the first time. This is what Marvin Menzies was talking about when he said he is not going to outcoach Bill Self. Notice Marvin did not say he could not outcoach Bill Self. He was saying that he is going to rely on his experience seniors to recognize and react to familiar tournament circumstances better than KU's green team will. He is playing to his strength. KU has to play to its strength--BAD BALL--something NMSU has not seen.
Two wins in three days this week end will do the trick.