@JayHawkFanToo
Interesting point.
I agree with you that the NBA players have wised up quite awhile ago and figured out that their careers probably lasted longer if they all run around shooting treys at a slow tempo with good defense, instead of transitioning, and banging and driving inside.
The NBA is a game of a player's union trying to improve working conditions and career length for its members, given the rules. The NBA not only emphasizes treys, but its tempo the last 20 years or so has been pretty slow.
At the same time, there is also intermittently a minority movement starting to try to try to push the ball up court faster to get better looks before the defense locks in. it is a return to Red Auerbach's running game adjusted to get treys instead of lay ups. George Karl kept the up tempo game going for awhile. D'Antonni restarted it, but won no championships with it. Now Kerr is picking up the flag and trying it with Golden State. Here is a nice concise link on the speeded-it-up phenomenon I had to look up, because I have not been keeping up with the NBA much the last five years.
http://www.nba.com/2015/news/features/john_schuhmann/03/06/warriors-defending-with-pace/index.html ↗
But the story indicates that it is still a minority phenomenon.
Could it spread around the league? It depends on two things IMHO. First it has to prove it can win a championship. But there is a second criterion in the NBA, now that NBA players make so much and want to play as long as they can and stay as healthy as possible to milk the cow as longs as they can. Which way of playing the game puts the least strain on players and so lengthens their career? This is the union's agenda, as it should rightly be. My hunch is that the pro game has slowed, because defense wins championships. So: teams have figured out that you might as well have most of your team spend most of its energy on defense and rely on a just a couple players to be great scorers. By slowing the game down, everyone is playing more under control and there are fewer health risks--fewer sacrificing body plays in a slow tempo game. But there are health risks to half court m2m defense. Defensive sliding is one of the toughest wear and tear items on a player. Self defense wrecks the pop in half his players by their second,or third seasons just in college. Professional players have recognized this for decades and only played defense during the play offs. And then reintroduced zone defense to further reduce the need for sliding in the playoffs.
Where is this headed then?
One idea I see confusing board rats some is the idea that the NBA is getting away from centers. I think this is a somewhat misleading take. The NBA drafts every footer and near footer it can find. And though I can't document it, I suspect the NBA probably has more footers and near footers on its rosters than ever before. And it is very shortly going to have as many as 20 more on its rosters, since UK, Duke, UA, Louisville, and Gonzaga have four each. Oh and Utah had 4, or so. Plus some more always turn up from overseas. What is happening is that the NBA is starting to use footers and near footers differently. They are probably running less offense through them and more through their trey ballers. But the more trey balls they take the more long length they need to grab long boards and stop stick backs. And the more footers and near footers they find they more of them turn out to be able to shoot the trey, which means the more these footers have to be able to range out to guard the trey. And so on. So: it is not at all that footers and near footers are scarce. Quite the contrary. It is the rising number of footers and near footers that forces more and more outside shooting, which puts a premium on the footers that can range outside to guard the trey stripe.
I think the push the ball approach makes sense in the NBA, because it produces a quick shot before the footers and near footers get locked in and the perimeter guys overplaying because of those footers behind them. And it does this with as little defense being played as possible. Couple push ball with settling into zones for any half court defense needed after a miss and you've got just about the least wear and tear you can put on an NBA player over a career. Note that push-ball is not really running basketball like Red Auerbach's Celtics, or George Karl's kamikaze kids used to play. Push ball NBA style is not aiming for a drive to iron, It is aiming for a quick open look trey. Players are not running full speed, they are just releasing early and striding out comfortably for a long sideline pass and an open trey. During the regular season, when the emphasis is on entertainment and not on winning, this style is perfect for letting most of the players loaf and every so often letting the super star have an uncontested running dunk that doesn't look quite as fake as it is. All one team has to do is just not release defenders up the floor every 5th or tenth drip in January and let the superstar make his highlight dunk in which no one has to run at all.
So: yeah, the tempo is going to speed up to striding out, but there is going to be none of the balls to walls running of the old days. And the beauty of push ball will be that there will be even less of what you are describing--back to basket banging in half court. This combination of benefits should lengthen careers and reduce injuries in the L. The union will be happy and so will management.
That being said, they will still draft as much length as they can find to rebound the long missed treys. And during the playoffs, the height will make ACTUAL driving against a zone difficult enough to justify 3 point shooting in the playoffs. The bigger you are in a zone the less slides you have to make to cover ball movement; that's good for the bigs. And the more treys you take the less stress on the ligaments and tendons on your back court guys.
Now, with the above context, consider what we are seeing shape up in D1.
Footers are being stacked and played as few minutes as possible at the stack schools, until they absolutely HAVE to play their best two footers. Since the ShoeCo-Agency complex appears to running the whole show now, the stacking works perfectly to minimize wear and tear on their product endorsers and fee generators. It would be stupid NOT to reduce wear and tear on the footers now that stacking is feasible to do, because of informal institutionalizing of the recruiting space by the ShoeCo-agent complexes. When everything used to depend on head coaches and players having a meeting of the minds, there was no way to control talent distribution. Now that the coach and school are just a pit stop, it is the long term relationship with the Shoeco-Agent complex started in middle school, or early high school, that shapes choice by players and their families. The ShoeCo Agency complex apparently gives the cream of the crop players a list of schools to choose between. The idea is for you to go where ever you can not be overworked and have your joints jeopardized with injury BEFORE you generate a fee to the agents that have been shepherding you since 9th grade or so. Most of the top footer players that don't have affluent parents go to the stack schools, where their minutes can be limited until the Madness. They can't afford to say no to the shoeco-agent complex. The occasional exception like Zimmerman announces he is taking no risks so it doesn't matter where he plays, as long as he does not play unnecessary minutes, and does not have to dive for 50/50 balls. Of course I am speaking hypothetically in all of this.
Notice that UK, Duke, UA, Louisville, and Gonzaga each had 4 footers and they all went a long way.
Notice that the only non stack school to make a dent this season was Wisconsin, which had one stretch 5 footer, the rarest bird in the aviary.
You are right. The future of D1 is probably not back to the basket post men.
The future of D1 is 4 footers rotating two at a time taking dishes from drivers, sticking back drivers misses, and long rebounding missed treys.
My hunch is that we are going to see more and more footers in the college game playing less and less pure back to basket, now that you've got me thinking this through.
The amount of reliance on three point shooting will depend heavily on the refereeing.
So long as referees increasingly favor home teams on foul calling during the regular season and stack teams the last ten minutes in the Madness, I think the driving perimeter player becomes indispensable, because you will always have a higher PPG driving and shooting FTs than three point shooting, given a favorable whistle.
And if you are a non stack team, like KU appears destined to be until it resigns with Nike, you have no choice but do what Bo Ryan, Rick Pitino and Mark Few have done, and what I believe Bill Self is in the process of shifting over to.
You have to have get rid of your long trey ballers that cannot drive it, and stock up on driver/trey ballers on the perimeter. And at the same time you have to get as long as possible in front court to rebound the long treys, and limit your opponent to shooting outside. You also want at least one of your bigs to be able to be a stretch 4, or a stretch 5, that can ding the trey. Finally, you want to tailor your offense to push ball as much as possible. You want your footers releasing the rebound to a wing defender and then rifling it up the sideline to someone to take an open trey the way the pros do, or else, settle into a little action ending in a drive.
Or so it seems written in a hurry and on the run myself.