This past week, coach Self made this rather incredible comment:
“I probably changed too much last year. We became an inside-out team, and then obviously the last half of the season we were an outside-in-type team. We still wanted to play through our bigs, but not like we have in the past. I don’t think we ran near as good of offense last year, so hopefully personnel will allow us to do some different type things. We were thin up front last year from a production standpoint."
Thought I might take a stab at breaking this down.
-Concession that "Bad Ball" Was A Mistake: I believe that Self is flat out conceding that the "change" that occurred after the Texas Tech game was a mistake, albeit a bit backhanded in its delivery. This is Self's way of recognizing that the post Texas Tech "offense" was a disaster. He's right. It was bad offense. And this was the biggest change of last season. The drive it, drive it drive it, outside-in attack that was the biggest deviation we've ever seen offensively under Self. It was perhaps the worst offense we've run in the recent past. The weave, the emphasis on driving the ball over and over, and the lack of true, diverse motion gave us a 6-5 record to finish the season. I'm confident that Self sees this error.
-Change Was The Error: Self changed his approach after Texas Tech and "Bad Ball" thus was born. But his admission of an error was because of a deviation from his system, not because he didn't try something other than Bad Ball. His mistake, in his mind, was changing at all - deviating from his system. This is an important distinction. Admittedly, it's not what I was looking for this off season. His blown gasket was because he was horrified by the direction of his offense. Horrified by what many of us want. Horrified by any hint of "outside-in." Bill Self loves his system, and loves inside-out.
-Bad Ball's Ineffectiveness Obvious: And look, this was obvious once we began to see the results. There is no doubt that we were worse offensively the last 11 games than the prior games. The statistics don't lie. We can say it was needed, or that Self knows what's best, or whatever .. but it was worse offense. We were worse. And I do think that Self regrets it -- he "changed too much."
-Type Of Change A Different Issue: My comments about Bad Ball have been that we would have been better offensively just doing what we had been doing, rather than switching to "Bad Ball", which was all pre-Cliff (eligibility) and Ellis (injury) issues. Of course, I felt that we should have made a different sort of change, a different direction. That's a separate discussion.
-Outside-In Before Texas Tech: Self recognized that we had evolved into more of an outside-in team before the Texas Tech game. He said very clearly on January 31, 2015, that we were not an "inside-out" team. We were an outside-in team. And that's what he meant by "half of the season." Heck, we talked about it here. We were and outside-in team the minute we dominated the first half playing that way against Utah, and when we yacked up the lead playing inside-out the second half of that game. Our most effective offense was when we were gunning from the outside, and those looks were not derived from an "inside-out" approach. Self knew this. We all saw it. But he didn't like it. And he will never accept it.
-This Means Self Believed Pre-TT Offense Poor As Well: Because we were playing outside-in before Texas Tech, it also seems clear to me that Self believed our offense before the TT meltdown was poor. Not just that he wanted to play a different way, but that he felt the offense itself was bad. The comment above by Self is further evidence to me that he really did blow a gasket after Texas Tech. We kind of knew that anyway. It was not just that we were shooting threes at a high rate (too high for Self's liking), it was because Self felt that our entire offensive approach was poor. Like it or not, that means we won't see that again.
-Could Self Be Even More Rigid Offensively?: On the surface, it would seem that Self will become even more rigid. The comments seem to indicate that change is the enemy -- but I don't think so. I do think that that the days of the four out/one in weave appear to be dead. Good riddance. That was a 3-5 minute offense. It had no complexity. It was thrown together. It was easily defended when schemed against. It was not an offense that could sustain a game (as we saw). With the right personnel -- and we had the right personnel -- a four out/one in system can be tremendous. What we ran was not a system. It was a simplistic, mid-season improvisation.
-But This Is Really Good News: I analogize this to my discussion on man to man teams playing zone. Sure, you have to practice it. And practice it a lot. That's one challenge. But your coach also needs to know how to coach it. Great coaches may not be good zone defense coaches. Self coaching a four out/one in offensive scheme focused on an outside-in approach is not Self's strength. We know his strength. It's the high/low. It's what he knows. Even more importantly, it's what he believes in. Kansas will be better with Self coaching and teaching what he knows. The high/low is the greatest offensive basketball scheme ever devised. There are enumerable options. And if you can play inside-out, and you can score at the rim, it seems pretty obvious to me that playing inside-out is the better choice. My only gripe was with our personnel and the mismatch with the inside-out attack Self was running. While an initial interpretation could be that Self won't change anything, I think there is a good chance that we'll see some new wrinkles. Actually, I expect it. The change we should expect will come within his system.
-New Wrinkles In The High/Low: The change will come within Self's system. That I am now quite sure of. New wrinkles and adjustments within the system. Here's why -- nothing could have been more disturbing to Self than seeing his team's inability to score inside. I wonder if he was able to sleep after some games. We'll see some changes within his scheme to find scoring opportunities beyond our standard fare inside. I can't imagine that Self could watch last season's inside futility and not dedicate himself to modifications within his system to help mitigate those issues. I can't imagine that he won't be proactive, to ensure that such failures inside don't occur at such a high rate.
-What Could We See?: I've thought about this a lot since we signed Diallo. Ellis and Diallo are both mobile. I expect that a new wrinkle could be some elevator action for the bigs -- elevator plays are ones where there are two screeners and the offensive player goes between the screeners. We run a set play with one of those looks against a zone for the PG on penetration. This is a great option for mobile bigs and would seem to fit Diallo to a T. This seems like a simple add to our motion offense (as opposed to a set play) when our three moves wing to wing, in concert with the other big. Another option could be more vigorous movement between the high and the low. In our offense, there's not a lot of exchange between the two positions -- meaning if you start high or low, you stay high or low for the possession. Where it makes the most sense is creating entry pass opportunities for a long and athletic guy like Diallo who can make plays on the move. We struggled feeding the post. This is a contrast to the static post feed. It typically has to be well timed and means that the high/low guys may move out on the floor more often. Again, this seems to fit Diallo perfectly. We've tried it sporadically, but neither Lucas nor Ellis were able to make the reception reliably. Having Svi on the wing, and perhaps more Graham (both of whom are adept passers in this type of action), will help as well. Another off shoot of this is more emphasis on the pick and roll. Again, not big changes, just doing more things that create the easy baskets that Self craves. Finally, I think we'll see more pick and pop action. Bragg, like Ellis, has the ability to shoot from outside. I think Self will be more accepting of this if we are able to get easy baskets inside, and if those opportunities flow from the inside, such as Diallo or the low post kicking it out after the post opportunity has passed. We've obviously done this in the past. I think we could just see more of it. Imagine the possibilities with Bragg and Ellis, rotating more between the high and the low, both able to hit the 15 footer? If we are scoring more easy baskets, I sense that Self will be more receptive to our post guys stretching the floor as we've done in the past.
-Three Point Shooting Will Increase: The three point shooting rate has declined in each of the last four seasons. Oddly, I expect it to increase substantially next season -- within the high/low, inside-out scheme. Self is averse to the three pointer being the focus of the offense. Self is not averse to it being part of the offensive system. If we are in an offensive system that Self is comfortable with (getting a reasonable number of easy baskets inside), I do think that Self will utilize our three point game more often -- perhaps to the level it was used pre-Bad Ball. Again, as long as we're getting the requisite number of easy baskets, I think Self will tolerate the three to a higher degree. With our shooters, this could lead to a more explosive attack. But the three will never be our lead weapon.
Interested in others' thoughts on these topics. One thing I can't imagine is that Self will endure the offensive tug of war we saw last season. I don't think we'll ever see that again. And I don't think Self will simply move into 2015-16 without some adjustments. Creating some new wrinkles within his system, to get more looks inside, seems like the reasonable approach. This makes the most sense to me.
