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For the first time I can remember, Oubre is falling on the ESPN mock draft. After holding steady in the lottery, as high as 7-9 range he's now #18 on Chad Ford's Big Board after measurements & interviews from the combine. I'm kind of shocked because that makes him the 5th rated SF at the moment.

It doesn't sound as if his interviews went that well:

"Oubre measured with a massive 7-2 wingspan at the combine and was the tallest of the wings. He also showed off above-average athleticism in the athletic testing. However, his interviews played to mixed reviews from scouts and whoever drafts him sees a project with major upside -- pushing him a little further down our board past a few mid-first round sure things. "I think he has a chance to be a 3-and-D guy in the league and his best NBA skill will probably be on the defensive end," one GM said. "I think he'll be able to lock down guys if he wants to. And I think he'll be a good shooter. It's the in-between stuff that I'm not sure he'll ever get. I don't think he can really dribble the basketball. But the biggest issue is his head. Is he ready to put in the work?" If he does, he could be a steal this late."

It's still early and workouts with teams will really decide his fate but I didn't see him sliding past the lottery with his great size for the SF position and upside.. Should Kelly have stayed a 2nd year?

@BeddieKU23 Yes, Kelly should've stayed another year, but I'm still upset that Paul Pierce left early.

Hard to imagine us not winning a NC if he had stayed... especially now.

And with a great March showing it would have helped his draft stock.

It shouldn't all be about where a kid goes in the draft. First round just gives them guarantee money. They still have to play, and the big money comes later... future contracts.

It's easier to develop while in college because it is built for guys to develop. Shorter seasons and less travel. Simpler lifestyles and less agents and clingers. I don't know why more players can't see the great opportunity college is for development, instead chasing the fast buck. Most of those guys end up in D-league... might as well call it F-league, because if you are playing in it you are F%$&ED!

@drgnslayr

We are probably the clear favorite if he stayed but we knew that was a longshot going into the season regardless of his comments on the matter. He's the type of kid that could thrive from the NBA (Wiggins) and landing on a team that gives him the opportunity.

I'm just surprised that he was #12 maybe a week ago and had plenty of GM's saying they had him as high as 7. Seems odd that a lot of people are now shifting their thoughts on him, just from the beginning stage of this process. I hope Kelly brings it in the workouts and gets back up there, it looks good for KU and Self is he lands in the lottery after 1 year of ups & downs.

@BeddieKU23

He had his momentum. GMs and coaches see his long reach and athleticism and they oozed on his potential. But his potential isn't the same as his reality. It isn't known if he will develop handles. It isn't known if he will ever become skilled at finishing on the right side of the goal and using his right hand. It isn't known if he can create his own offense at this level of ball. About the most known skill is his defense... but you have to have more than D in the league.

Kelly's basketball resume is tiny. He didn't even play a full season of college games last year because he started out on the bench. Even after he got the nod, he didn't dominate every game. His resume is short, and he should have stayed to better develop that. If he would have stayed he could have answered some of the unknowns in his second year of college ball... one in which he could have started dominating from Day 1 this coming season!

But.. he should be a first round pick and get guaranteed money. He'll have his chance to make it. He'll get a legitimate shot. He'll have to fight it out with men much older than him. He'll find out what he is made of very very soon!

@BeddieKU23

You have to be careful when looking at drat projections. Much like Lunardi is to Bracketology, Chad Ford is to the draft, an average (at best) projection ranking with the huge audience of ESPN. There are many draft prediction services and rankings out there with a much better track record than Chad Ford. I try to follow these projection but it has been pretty busy at work and I have not looked at the other draft projections. Maybe, if you have the time, you can look at some of the other projection and see where Oubre stands.

He just last week hired an agent so do you think that removes some of his leverage because the owners know he can't return. Now they have him so lets play with his head to get a better deal.

@JayHawkFanToo

Ford has constant talk with GM's so a lot of his rankings have to do with feedback from what he is hearing. I take that as much of a guide as anything. Just cause he is #18 on his board doesn't mean he won't get drafted before hand, but I did find that he is sliding to be of concern.

He had to leave. All of these kids who are possible lottery picks have to leave. Why stay if you are going to more than likely be in the lottery? Too much risk of injury, etc by coming back to college.

It is the kids who are projected 2nd round picks like Dakari Johnson that I don't understand. He barely played for 2 years at UK and will go late in the draft. I truly don't get why he leaves unless he is covering up the fact that he is not good and wants to get drafted on "potential".

Here is a good read on why Kelly isn't finding pure love in his initial NBA assessment:

Kelly Oubre Is Heading To The NBA, But Is He Ready? ↗

There are 3 questions about his game that have to be weighed against his long reach and athleticism -

1. Can't (or doesn't) go to his right or finish with his right hand.

2. Ball handling needs work.

3. Gives up on defense.

I'm sure if he had stayed one more year he would have erased #3. And there was an excellent chance he would have helped himself on the first two issues, too. Had he done that, there would be no more question about his ability to make it to the next level and he would have become a Top 5 pick.

@drgnslayr hm. I didn't agree with you when you said he shouldn't have gone initially.. Now I'm not so sure. Certainly if he misses the lottery, you'll be right.

@drgnslayr I joined you last month in declaring that Kelly was taking a huge gamble regarding lottery selection. He might yet slip in there, but I would not bet a dollar, even at 3/1 odds. Essentially, he played half a season for KU, rarely rose to his heralded billing. A good kid whose early and mid-teen years were uprooted by untowards circumstance. As a Jayhawk he was offered the chance for stability and security, at least on the good luck side of career threatening injury. One more year most probably would have solidified his position as a top 13 draft pick, and might have given him a Final Four stage to enhance his prospects. I wish him well; will always, but perhaps vaguely, remember him as a starting Kansas Jayhawk...on a squad which underperformed in late March and early April 2015. I will watch the June Draft and hold out hopes for him with bated breath.

FWIW: Garry Parish has this on Kelly:

1. Indiana Pacers
   Kelly Oubre Jr., SF, Kansas: If the Pacers genuinely want to play faster in the future than Oubre is a perfect roster addition. He's an athletic wing who developed well from November to March at Kansas. And the fact that he handled his early adversity well speaks to a maturity level that isn't always evident in one-and-done prospects.

From Snacks:

No school dominates the NBA Draft lottery more than the University of Kansas | Business Insider http://www.businessinsider.com.au/nba-draft-lottery-2015-5 ↗ …

!draft.jpg ↗

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The NBA is about potential, but it is also about knowing who may realize that potential, understanding that most will not.

Oubre is an NBA player. He could become a star like Kawhi Leonard or Jimmy Butler. He could end up as a rotation guy. But he has the ability to play at that level. Most guys won't ever be stars, so staying in college in hopes that you hit the jackpot is fools gold.

The NBA is better for development anyway. With the collegiate restrictions on practice and coaching time, it's hard for a guy to really add to his game unless he works with someone privately. In the NBA you have all of that at your disposal automatically.

@justanotherfan I agree on the point about the NBA being the place where you can develop. I think it is a misconception that the NCAA is a better place to develop. Some guys like Kaminkski (or Perry Ellis) need 4 years to reach their peak for the draft but I totally agree that the NBA is where guys go from being good players to great players. NBA guys play every single day. All they do is play basketball. There are no college courses to worry about. No restrictions on practice. No "this is how I need to play as I need to impress for the draft" stuff. The NBA is a business and the management and coaching staff are sinking tons of money into player development and there is essentially no off season. Think of how good Okafor was for Duke this year and that is with only one year of playing against great competition. He hasn't even learned how to shoot yet. In the NBA he will turn into a monster and may be playing along side Wiggs next year.

Looking forward to seeing Wiggs development and JoJo once he is healthy! Those guys are potential NBA All Stars. I can't say I feel that way at all about Oubre. Glad he is living out his dream and I think he had no chance but to leave but I don't see him being anything outside of a rotation guy in the NBA. Not that this is a bad thing. I wish I could make $2 million a year being a rotation guy at my company.

@RockChalkinTexas Good for the NBA, not so much for KU.

@joeloveshawks

Your comments about Oubre are why he might have benefited coming back. A second year could have put him in a better position to be drafted higher because of the talent at the SF position is so deep. He's probably the least reliable option of the other 4 that may be drafted ahead of him. I thought he was a cinch to be in the lottery but I'm not sure that's the case anymore. If a lottery talent like him is falling, it tells you how good this draft class could be.

But if the NBA is where he can develop better than hopefully he puts in the work to make a name for himself in the league. I believe Kelly will do well in the league, I think his game will be suited to the faster pace and the coaches who will work with him to refine some of his skills. His defense will translate and that should help him get minutes as a rookie.

@BeddieKU23

Again, you have to take the comments in context. If you are a GM, would you tell Ford what your real priorities are so other team can be made aware of that? I think not. Who a NBA team is interested in or will try to draft (other than the obvious top 2-3) are very closely guarded secrets that NBA teams do not discuss with reporters.

@approxinfinity @REHawk

I look at it like this... Which is the bigger risk? Playing one more year of college ball and remaining injury free? Or.. throwing your hat in the draft and hope you sign a guaranteed contract?

It's even deeper than that. The higher players go, so does their contract amount. Surely, teams are willing to stick it out longer and put a higher perceived value on a player they had to pay more for.

I think Kelly took a much larger gamble by jumping in the draft early. His game is still a long ways off from him finding any vital PT minutes at the pro level. Will he be afforded the time and given the attention to help him make it to the level where he can play? At best, I put him in the category of "situational risk" meaning... he needs to have a bit of luck and get with a team in the right situation. He definitely needs to avoid the wrong deal or his NBA hopes will be dashed. The time window for sink or swim is quite small in the league.

Kelly Oubre made the right decision. He has the maturity to know that he's not going to dominate the NBA game right away. You do not get better by playing against players that are at best the same talent level as you and the vast majority are nowhere near as good as you. You get better by playing against players that are better than you that force you to up your game. Chad Ford's mock is the lowest I've seen Oubre's name in the draft, (Oubre's name falls anywhere from 11-17 on the most credible sites) so there's no guarantee he goes that low.