@madmaxKU
Self was asked about recruiting more guards, even though our big hole is in the post next year. Self replied that he will continue to recruit guards because anything could happen and we suddenly need guards. So Self feels like any or all of your ideas about guys leaving early COULD happen (or the negative possibility that someone gets badly injured). But that doesn't mean LIKELY to happen.
Personally, just my opinion, but I don't see much of a chance Mason or Graham will be benched for a stud guard coming in. That would be extremely risky regardless of the talent level. There is no knowledge as to how quickly a newbie elite guard will translate their skills to D1, learn Self ball, AND create chemistry with the team. So while there are elite guards out there that will surpass our current guards on strictly a talent comparison, that still doesn't mean one could come in and steal a starting spot away... especially from a senior or junior.
Mason and Graham have both shown steady improvements even over the course of one season. If they stay healthy there is no reason to think they won't make another leap over the next year. I still find it unlikely either of these guys enter the draft next year... but the ridiculous sports media will be jumping all over that idea the first time these guys post double-figure scoring this year... why? Because they think anyone scoring a few baskets should consider themselves NBA stock.
Svi... analysts project him to have NBA draft potential next year. Who knows? Certainly not these people. They have to find original content to keep the readers they have. Keeping readers and growing readership IS what they do for a living, not actually reporting facts. If I had a penny for every projection error they made, I would buy the Taj Mahal.
Truth is... no one knows where these players will be after this March. Anything can play out. Injuries... or what if we win a NC? That tends to induce more players into the draft.