MEMO
FROM: jaybate basketball intelligence network
TO: KUBuckets board rats
CLASSIFICATION: FOUO (for official use only)
SUBJECT: BAYLOR PRE-GAME INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
Peter Principle coach with a lot of talent, as usual, rotates 9 players > 12 mpg, including 8 > 17mpg. This team can match KU's length in front court, and equal some of KU's athleticism there, too. Baylor's back court rotation is mostly longer than KU's, except for Selden. Wiggins has two inches on their wing. Baylor wins with rebounding (+10.9), shot blocking (double their opponents) 3pt shooting (39% for team with two 46-47% trinitarians), by getting to the FT line a third more, and FG defense inside. They have 5 guys over 6-7 that play. If Selden and Wiggins were to come to play, they would hold MUA at 2 and 3. Perry Ellis at 6-8 and 225 could have a good game, because he can out quick 6-8 270 Rico Gathers who only plays 18 mpg. Gathers will be a bit like the Georgetown widebodies that Perry out maneuvered. When Gathers is out, the other players are finessers like Perry--the other kind that Perry likes to play against. 7-1 Isaiah Austin can probably stay with Joel for 25mpg, but Joel seems the better rebounder and scorer. On KU water-marked paper, Joel outweighs Austin by 25 lbs; that is about as likely as Joel having killed a lion.The two giants are a wash at shot blocking. When Baylor plays well, they are very hard to beat. When KU plays well, so are they. KU's rebounding will be sorely tested by Baylor. If KU can rebound, it can match Baylor at shot blocking, and FG% defense inside. Neither team strips much. The game should come down to whether KU's long perimeter players can muzzle Baylor's great trey shooting, and whether KU can find ways to score inside when the trees are tall. Getting an edge in strips and holding down TOs could determine the winner if both teams play well.
Baylor Trey Shooters to Hound: 6-2 Heslip and 6-6 Royce O'Neale.
Key Match-ups:
Perry on Rico Gathers and Jefferson Corey: Could go either way for Perry. Either player could start blocking his shots, unless Perry is in the right tail of his aggression distribution.
Embiiid on Austin: challenging match up for newbie Joel. Austin is the first guy his size, with some athleticism, that the lion killer has faced in D1. Austin has the experience. But Embiid has "the feet." If Joel isn't cowed by having a few of his shots crammed in his face the way he does to others, then Joel's quickness could get Austin in foul trouble. They both have size. Were Joel truly 25 pounds heavier, then we should expect to see Austin get worn down as the game reaches 10 to go. But is Joel really 250? Is Perry really 6-8? Is Jam Tray really 6-7? Are Frank and Naadir really anywhere near 6-0? Was EJ really 6-4? Was Cole really 6-11? And so on.
Wiggins on Royce O'Neal: If Wigs came to play this could be the MUA to exploit.
Tharpe on Kenny Chery could be a real headache, but Tharpe has been getting enough help lately and Frank Mason could be an Advil for Chery.
On paper it should be a close game. But on wood, KU seems to be playing better than Baylor and maybe a bit more athletically. Depth looks similar, though if Traylor and Black continue to improve their tandem play in back up, KU becomes more and more invincible.
Self likely will be having his guards long pass it up the side lines to make Baylor run back, try and get some quick looks before the 2-3 is set, then make the zone slide right left right left before shooting; that should reduce the time Austin is on the floor.
Baylor is going to going to change up its defenses unless it has a lead in which case it will sit in its zone and dare KU to beat it from outside.
Word has to be getting around the league that for whatever reason, Andrew Wiggins does not like contact. Baylor has the depth to put Andrew on his but a few times, but probably won't unless he comes out strong. Wigs really did not like the face punch he got a couple games ago, so he's like to catch on of those, plus he pay as well put on skate boarding pads, if he wants to go to iron while Rico Gathers is in. Where ever Wigs slashes, Rico is apt to bare the forearm on the greatest prospect since Lebron.
(Note; Forearms to the head go with the hype. I wish to heck the Wiggins Brain Trust would shut off the hype until after the season. Self apparently prevailed upon them to turn it down for a month and Wigs started finding his way. The minute they turned it back on before the OSU game, he did the disappear-o. Wigs seems too young to be able to self-hype and play well at this stage of his development. The hype is clearly not who he is as a person, however much his talent may justify it. And getting roughed up is also clearly not who he is. If John Nash were a beautiful mind (and he was), then Andrew Wiggins is a beautiful athlete. Like Nash, Wig's extraordinary talents can take him places in youth that he is not necessarily ready to go. For god's sakes save Andrew Wiggins. I am about ready to make t-shirts with that slogan. Turn off the hype machine and just let him grow up this year and play; that was the point of the OAD think anyway. He's seems a great kid. One year without hype is not going to kill his earning power for all those that want a piece of him. And one year without hype could let him become one of the great ones. But back to the game.)
KU's Big Offensive Need for this Game: Greene, or CF, need to come in and make 3 treys this game to offset the gunners on Baylor. 1 or 2 treys are not enough. We need them to take the next step. We are very likely to see a lot of very long, stretched 2-3 zone today. This seems to favor Greene, but when 6-2 Heslip is in, Self can afford to go to CF, if Greene comes up snake eyes on his first attempt.
As usual, Self is worth 5 points on Drew.
Every game from here on out would be a great game for Andrew Wiggins to play like a #1 draft choice, instead of a guy who can't quite adjust to the roughness.
He's going to have to go into the seams on the zone a lot, work the baseline some for lobs. And he's not going to be able to get open looks on his side of the zone, unless he feeds the post and collapes the zone for a kick out. O'Neale will be on his side.
He ought to have a monster game, because there are going to be a lot of times, when he has more MUA than anyone else on our team. But he had that against OSU and disappeared from focusing on defense. Royce O'Neale is going to require his defensive attention again. Here's hoping he has reached the stage of being able to do two things at once.
Finally, Tarick Black could become a factor due to size and weight. Once Embiid and Austin exit the game, Black has a pretty big heft advantage that could translate to rebounding...if the refs are letting them play.
We will need a productive bench again, because there bench is productive.
NOTE: DESTROY AFTER READING
