The Doke-Mitch-Silvio Post Complex have averaged 20.8 ppg and 13.7 rpg. We are likely to need significantly more from themāmore points and more rebounds on both ends.
KU has most recently shot 41% and then 35% descending into its cyclic shooting trough on treys.
The range of prior troughs have been 19% and 35%, so we should expect the coming trough to fall somewhere between and guesstimate in the middle: 28%.
(Note: the 35% against Duke could have been the trough, but I suspect the refs letting Duke hack KU took KU lower than IT OTHERWISE would have descended that soon. Without the hacking, KU probably would have been, say, 37-38% with another descent coming this coming game for the real bottom somewhere in the low 30s or high 20s.)
KU averages 10.1 3pt makes per game on 40.1% 3pt shooting.
Letās guess KU makes 7 treys; thatās 3 makes below average, or 9 points needing to be made up another way.
Extra focus on Offensive rebounding and put backs with our longer bigs (compared with Nova) could get us 2 baskets, or 4 points.
Diverting a few more 3pta possessions to feeding the bigs could get get us maybe one more 2 on a lob dunk than average, since Nova is not long inside, but very active nonetheless. Call that 2 more points. Note: We canāt expect short-three fouls being awarded by refs against Nova any more than against Puke. Thus, perimeter driving or feeding the post for short treys is NOT how to close the trey gap for a W.
We are still really 4 points, or 2 2point baskets shy of over coming the trey deficit by +1 point. What to do?
Where to find 2 more buckets?
Sound the defensive trumpets!
We need a few extra strips and blocks/recoveries.
Defense helps wins two ways:
a.) by holding down the opponents shooting percentages with belly button defense; and
b.) by stealing possessions (I.e., by denying the opponent the chance to make a basket with a strip or block).
Alas, stripping Nova one on one on the dribble is tough, because they are really a bunch of combo guards same as KU is.
Self usually addresses this issue one of three ways:
a.) with stretches of surprise lane-jumping defense; I.e., defenders gambling on jumping into the passing lanes and risking being out of position to recover if they donāt intercept the pass;
b.) with wing-stripping of lane drivers, I.e., a point guard overplaying on ball and funneling the PG to drive to a side of the lane, where the nearest KU wing is sagging to strip the dribble.
c.) a out of the blue resort to a 3/4 court press (he apparently likes this least).
Jay Wrong knows Selfās 3 tendencies, so Self may be forced to āinnovateā another stripping technique.
KU has to have about 4 stolen possessions to get two made 2point baskets.
The only other reasonable way to deal with this trey deficit, given the likely asymmetric whistle, is denying Nova enough second shots (enough under its average of second shot scoring), so that KU does not have to make up the last two baskets at all.
Self appears to take the incremental approach to most scoring problems. He breaks things down and gets a little more here and allows a little less there and before you know it the deficit from bad shooting to make up is not insurmountable, if, that is, you donāt lose your offensive focus and defensive intensity from the shots you miss.
Rock Chalk!!!
