What would Bill Self have gained for KU's seeding by pulling out all the stops to beat ISU?
Before we even try to answer, let's consider what Self might have done differently against ISU in terms of pulling out all the stops?
He might have zone pressed intermittently during the first and second halves.
He might have routed more of the offense through Perry Ellis, who was 11-12 from the field instead of continuing to route offense through Andrew Wiggins who was 7-21. He might have played Frank Mason a lot more for a sputtering Naa Tharpe. He might have not wasted all those minutes on Brannen Greene. He might have played through Black a lot more offensively. He might have used the identical low-block, double teaming scheme he used on OSU the day before on ISU the day after, especially the last 10 minutes when ISU quit shooting treys and went almost entirely inside. He might have spent the last ten minutes in his preferred hybrid 3 player m2m and 2 man zone to control the rebounds and deny Niang's preferred back to the basket game down the stretch. Those are some no brainers that Self might have done. :-)
And I bet Bill Self could have thought of a whole bunch more, because it the best coach of his generation and amazingly able to find wrinkles that give his team an edge...when he wants to win the game. :-)
Now, let's come back to the question: how would beating ISU have helped KU get better than a 2 seed in the South Region starting at St. Louis, leading to Tar's home town, Memphis, leading to Big 12 country in Arlington, TX? Sweet, no?
Which 1-seed would KU have shouldered aside by beating ISU?
Hmmm.Virginia in the East? A midwest team as the 1 seed in the East? Not gonna happen.
Florida in the South? A team that beat KU? Not gonna happen.
Arizona in the West? The number one team in the country and a western team to boot? Not gonna happen.
Wichta State in the Midwest? The only undefeated team in the country and a midwestern team that was in the Final Four the year before? Not gonna happen.
Ooookay, so would beating ISU have gotten KU a better 2 seed in another region?
First, as I said, a 2 seed in the South with stops at St. Louis, and Memphis is just about ideal for KU locationally. And, well, there are as many tough outs in the east and West as in the South, so those would not have been a step up, regardless.
Which brings us to the Midwest. It might have been better to be a two seed in the Midwest because it means getting to play Wichita State which hasn't beaten anyone worth a damn and so has never really been pushed by a series of tough opponents, which is what the Madness is all about starting second and third rounds.
But...
There are just two little problems with the Midwest. The committee put the most tough teams there. And Michigan is the number two seed there. Michigan is 25-8, and KU would have been 25-8 had it beaten ISU. But then KU would have had another game to play. And so KU would either have been 26-8, or 25-9. So let's think about this for a minute. At 26-8 there was a good chance KU would have gotten the two seed in the Midwest, and then played Texas, Duke and one of Wichita State, UK, or Louisville. Compare that with playing UNM, Syracuse, and Florida? My hunch is that winning all three in the B12 and landing in the Midwest would have been an easier row to hoe. But to get that easier row, KU would have had to play 3 games, have to play on only 4 full days of rest on 3/20/14, because Michigan, the current 2 seed in the Midwest has to play on 3/20.
Next, had KU beat ISU but lost in the B12 final, then KU's record would be 25-9. 25-9 would not have pushed Michigan aside and so KU would likely have wound up back where it already is, without having to play an extra game.
Self got the best of all possible worlds from the standpoint of what his team needed most. It got the maximum time to rest and scheme, because it plays first on 3/21/14 not 3/20.
KU gets a pair of teams in Eastern Kentucky and UNM (which it beat previously with Embiid) that it can reasonably beat by playing well with Black, instead of Embiid. This buys KU the chance to get Embiid back. If it gets Embiid back, then it gets Syracuse and Florida. If Embiid can play at or near his best, and with Black and Traylor providing much more bench, KU could handle Syracuse, by funneling its PG to Embiid inside, and by collapsing the zone with Embiid and Black to create scoring opps for Wiggins and Selden. I know Florida is good and beat us early, but with Embiid, we are so much better now than then that even Florida is in our grasp.
If Embiid cannot come back, then I think we might still upset Syracuse with a great effort, because it will just have had a knock down drag out with Ohio State, but then the the future would stop with Florida.
Could Bill foresee any of this with specificity? Probably not.
But could he see that it would probably take winning the B12 conference tourney to make things better than what KU got losing to ISU? Probably.
So: Self played the ISU game conservatively, knowing ISU would too. Self was trying win the ISU game, but only without over extending his team. The only way an ISU win would have been worth it was if enough gas could be left in the team's tank to win the next game, too.
Short of that, the best gamble was to lose to ISU, maximize your days to rest and prepare, and leave it all on the floor the first round in hopes of getting Joel back.
Well played, Bill.
