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Living in the ~~After~~ Never glow

I think Bill Self is depressed. He saw his most dominant big man's final season go up in a puff of Rudy Gobert germs. He probably looks at Dave's body and sees Dokes hard breathing bobble head on top of it in every huddle. "Guys! Feed it to Doke, I mean Dave!" is a common refrain. Now he wears sweatshirts everywhere. Sometimes the same sweatshirt for several days, and occasionally, when having Saturday games followed by Monday games, he's worn the same sweatshirt for consecutive games. In his defense, he managed to avoid getting ice cream or cheetos powder on it during that stretch, his usual triggers signaling it's time to cut the tags off of a new one.

I think Bill knew this year was a rebuilding year. But it would be OK, because it was on the heels of a deep tourney run... That never was.

We need to get past the denial phase. This 2020 Blindsight. Snap out of it Bill, and say it with me: Dave does not deny like Doke, Dave does not dunk like Doke, Dave does not defend like Doke, Dave is not Doke. Now burn sweetgrass and wave it around AFH. Breath deep 3 times in the afternoon sunbeams and then figure out realistic roles for everyone for the rest of the season. We will ride with you. Let the ghost of 16.3k be your guide.

@approxinfinity now do dot!

@approxinfinity yeah, Dave is a major disappointment. Looking forward to after next season him moving on.

@Marco said in Living in the ~~After~~ **Never** glow:

@approxinfinity yeah, Dave is a major disappointment. Looking forward to after next season him moving on.

@Marco Think you ought to check out Texas Hawk post off last nights game thread my friend. - -Pretty well shows WHY we we need to lighten up some on Dave, , brings out numbers on him and actually he is right you got to go with what is providing the most at the moment & Dave is providing the most

I'm not saying Dave sucks. Bill might be setting unfair expectations for him if he thinks he's Doke 2.0. Doke had a freakishly high standing jump at the combine. He was unstoppable around the rim. After his physical transformation he was getting a lot of blocks. None of this is Dave. Different player. Usage rate is too high. If the rest of the team can't score then they need to learn, not feed Dave every possession. Because a 35% usage rate for Dave isn't going to always fly. Sometimes they'll shut him down, sometimes the situation will demand a 3 pt shooter at the 5, given that the rest our personnel is struggling on both ends and the potential to be playing from behind.

Self knows this, I think. I think Dave's usage rate will dip toward the end of conference play as we try to get other people going.

@approxinfinity said in Living in the ~~After~~ **Never** glow:

I'm not saying Dave sucks. Bill might be setting unfair expectations for him if he thinks he's Doke 2.0. Doke had a freakishly high standing jump at the combine. He was unstoppable around the rim. After his physical transformation he was getting a lot of blocks. None of this is Dave. Different player. Usage rate is too high. If the rest of the team can't score then they need to learn, not feed Dave every possession. Because a 35% usage rate for Dave isn't going to always fly. Sometimes they'll shut him down, sometimes the situation will demand a 3 pt shooter at the 5, given that the rest our personnel is struggling on both ends and the potential to be playing from behind.

Self knows this, I think. I think Dave's usage rate will dip toward the end of conference play as we try to get other people going.

Self speak translation on what Self was saying when comparing Dave to Doke. Self wasn't sure comparing the two ability wise because there is no comparison there. He was comparing on court production because Doke didn't exactly put up eye popping numbers. 13.7 ppg and 10.5 rpg aren't unreasonable numbers for a big man in Self's system and several bigs have put up better numbers than that.

Also, please help understand your logic of Dave's usage rate being too high. I will immediately correct you by telling you that Dave's usage rate is just a tick under 30% on the year and in conference play.

I also don't understand the logic of not trying to give Dave a touch every possession when advanced metrics say he is by far KU's best offensive player. Teams should be game planning to stop Dave because he's shown to be KU's best offensive threat this year. And your solution is to sit KU's best offensive player rather than adjust the game plan to get Dave his touches which honestly are not enough at this point.

If other players are struggling to score, why in the world would you want to decrease the touches of the one guy who's shown consistently that he's willing and able to be an effective scorer around the basket?

It's time you go and actually look at the numbers for KU this year and see that Dave has been by far KU's best player on offense. This is an extremely flawed team so there will be sacrifices no matter who you play. Obviously with Dave, rebounding and rim protection are sacrificed with him on the floor. If this team was actually good defensively, then there would be an argument for sitting Dave more and playing a smaller line up, but because this team can't score for shit this year, KU cannot afford to sit and reduce the usage of their best offensive player who is Dave this year.

Let's get real... if we can't score efficiently from the outside with a 4-1 we sure as hell won't do it with a 5-guard offense. And you are talking to Mr. X-axis!

We need Dave badly. He just hasn't become Doke 2. How many of our past bigs could fill those shoes? Right...

I'm impressed with the improvements we have seen out of Dave. He can't help it if he doesn't have the footwork of Doke, or JoJo. Dave is Dave... and he's a guy who has a great attitude and a Jayhawk heart!

As usual, my advice to Dave is to start taking dance lessons. It might help his brain talk to his feet.

This season may not be a memorable one... but at least we smoke Bruce again!

RCJH!

@approxinfinity I hate to be disagreeable, but I know for a fact that he has had the ice cream and cheetos residue on him. One of his assistants follows him around off camera with a bottle of Spray N Wash...

@Texas-Hawk-10 I don't mind Dave having touches. That's different than usage, if the ball comes out sometimes. It increasingly has, and that's good. Also, I'm not advocating benching Dave, only learning to play without him as the focal point on O, same as Marcus. He has been significantly better recently, but I do think it's fools gold in the tournament if it's Dave or bust. You're saying Dave has been KUs best offensive player by the numbers and it's time I actually look at them, well I was looking at them until the last few games when he stopped being a total game killer. He's been much improved. If you're saying quantitative stats I have no doubt he has big totals due to his usage rate, especially against less athletic competition. And he's shooting 1.000 from 3 right? :)

Tell me Enaruna wouldn't benefit from having the touches that Dave gets? That's my point. I think Bill can and should start building other people up.

One cool thing about Dave better than Doke: no need to cover your eyes when he is at the FT line late in the game. I think Doke's inadequacy there sadly cost him POY.

Of course, the downside is Dave doesn't get to the line as much as we could want....

@mayjay :hundred_points:

@approxinfinity said in Living in the ~~After~~ **Never** glow:

@Texas-Hawk-10 I don't mind Dave having touches. That's different than usage, if the ball comes out sometimes. It increasingly has, and that's good. Also, I'm not advocating benching Dave, only learning to play without him as the focal point on O, same as Marcus. He has been significantly better recently, but I do think it's fools gold in the tournament if it's Dave or bust. You're saying Dave has been KUs best offensive player by the numbers and it's time I actually look at them, well I was looking at them until the last few games when he stopped being a total game killer. He's been much improved. If you're saying quantitative stats I have no doubt he has big totals due to his usage rate, especially against less athletic competition. And he's shooting 1.000 from 3 right? :)

Tell me Enaruna wouldn't benefit from having the touches that Dave gets? That's my point. I think Bill can and should start building other people up.

Below is an explanation of what the PER stay is from its creator.

"The player efficiency rating (PER) is a rating of a player's per-minute productivity.

To generate PER, I created formulas -- outlined in tortuous detail in my book "Pro Basketball Forecast" -- that return a value for each of a player's accomplishments. That includes positive accomplishments such as field goals, free throws, 3-pointers, assists, rebounds, blocks and steals, and negative ones such as missed shots, turnovers and personal fouls.

Two important things to remember about PER are that it's per-minute and is pace-adjusted."

15.0 is considered average for a PER. Dave is at a 30.9 PER in Big 12 play. I don't believe there's any scenario in Bill Self should be taking minutes, touches, or usage away from Dave for someone like Tristan Enaruna whose PER is 14.2 in conference play and 10.5 overall for the season.

Is Tristan going to start for KU at any point in his career? I doubt it unless you think Tristan is going to be a better player than Jalen Wilson any time in the next 3 years.

So to answer you question, yes, Tristan probably benefits from a few more touches a game, but that's the most important question though.

Do you think taking touches from KU's best and most consistent offensive threat and giving them to the third string 4 man makes the difference between KU making it to the Final Four or not this season? If the answer to that question is no, which it is because this is a 2nd round at best team this year, then it's not worth it to take touches away from your best offensive player.

KU isn't winning the Big 12 this season and will be fighting to finish above .500 in conference play. That said, KU still controls their own fate to finish 2nd in conference this year because KU is only 1 game out of 2nd place right now, and KU's best chance at a 2nd place finish rests with playing through Dave and building the offense around what it looked like a couple of years ago when Dedric Lawson was the focal point. That's what KU needs to do the rest of the way this season to give themselves the best chance of having the most success possible this season.

We only have up to 8 conference games left. I think we've past the time of big changes, especially when we show better signs of play, like against the kitties. I'm not saying Self won't strategize differently during games. When we look bad, he'll try different things to adjust the flow (or lack of it).

As the season comes to a close I'll be looking for clues that may tell us what Self is thinking about for next year.

@Texas-Hawk-10 I disagree. I do think it's worth taking shots away from Dave and distributing them across the rest of the team, especially if we are not a Final 4 team. Absolutely.

I'm pretty sure if we looked at Dave's games against good vs bad competition the difference would be stark. I'm not disputing that his PER is better, nor am I arguing that PER is not meaningful. I do think that, with the exception of maybe Tristan, every player has regressed from their non-con form except Dave, who started the season so historically bad statistically (fg% compared to usage) as Jesse illustrated pretty clearly, that there was nowhere to go but up. And while I am not blaming their regression on Dave, I do think every one of his teammates to a man will benefit from extra touches.

And I think that is a nice segue to a happy middle ground between your perspective and mine and that is that the ball moved better last night than it has in a while, leading to more touches for all, rather than just straightline dumps to Dave, even if the shot ended up being his after several passes. This was much more productive for everyone, including Dave.

@approxinfinity I am with you. Not saying that we shouldn't play Dave, but what about giving Enaruna more touches and developing some semblance of inside depth?

@approxinfinity I think your last point is key. The ball needs to move. Dave doesn't need to have fewer touches for everybody else to have more.

I thought self said on Hawk talk on tv tonight that all our players have had covid. Anybody else hear that?
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Check out Bryce's scar

@Crimsonorblue22 said in Living in the ~~After~~ **Never** glow:

I thought self said on Hawk talk on tv tonight that all our players have had covid. Anybody else hear that?
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Check out Bryce's scar

Interesting. You know, and I am not trying to be political here, not at all (I always mask up, it's not that hard to do). But I'm beginning to wonder if damn near all of us have alreadyl been exposed and to greater or lesser degrees already had it.

I don't think so, I've tested twice. I'm around kids and had a fever w/respiratory infection and had to get tested. Both neg. I have asthma so I'm extremely careful. I have friends that have taken the antigen test to check and they were neg

@Crimsonorblue22 I understand. But I know people who were sick, got tested and were negative, then went back two or four days later and tested positive. My point being, what about those - and I think there are many - who tested negative but remained sick who did not go back for further testing? And were out and about.

Those that were out and about are pretty selfish. I know a kid on a hs bb team that told his team not to tell if they got sick, just stay home. A parent found out, one of the coaches had past heart problems that could've been deadly for him.

@tundrahok said in Living in the ~~After~~ **Never** glow:

@approxinfinity I think your last point is key. The ball needs to move. Dave doesn't need to have fewer touches for everybody else to have more.

Yes. Passing feels like the key problem for this team. The poor shooting has been confounding because I have seen Abaji and Braun pour in 3s in the past.. This year it is a struggle and I think that is because the defense seems to be on them. Percentages between open and covered 3s are vastly different... and these guys are covered a lot, so there are more rushed and forced 3s.

Better passing can open up guys on the perimeter before defenders can get there. It can also create lanes for driving and opportunities to pass to the interior... If I could pick one thing to improve, I think it would be passing because I think it would in turn relieve many other woes.

The question I haven't been able to answer is why is this team struggling with passing so much?

Our guys are yet to prove to me they can attack a sticky defense. Until then... I feel like our chances are low for defeating teams that come prepared with aggressive defense. We are easily disrupted out of our flow. We need to be able to counter defenses that attack us hard on the perimeter. That means back cuts to the rim (the old alleyoops), carefully applied back screens, set high ball screens run with isos, so many ways to attack aggressive defenses. We can always get our offense on wheels off of rebounds and quick inbounds passing and attack open court or at least quick attacks before defenses get set. What has bothered me this year is our inability to adjust to what teams throw at us. We have plenty of talent but it gets lost in our inability to take what we are given. So few D1 defenses can handle being attacked for their aggression. They usually collapse in their weakside help.

Self is a pretty damn good play strategist and I'm surprised we don't run more structured plays when we get thwarted by sticky defenses. We should be running those backdoor alleyoops and they are available with the right back screens or just faking off cuts.

I'm thinking Covid is restricting practice because this team should be capable of learning a lot more than we are seeing.

@tundrahok @bskeet @drgnslayr :hundred_points: :hundred_points: :hundred_points:

They need to bring Devonte and Russ Rob back and show these kids how to pass.

@approxinfinity

They've got a film room full of examples! Someone needs to step up and take ownership.

@drgnslayr
Because of Covid, Self was rolling with what he's got rather than what could be. Im optimistic he's snapped out of that approach and last game and his comments were a sign of growth.

@approxinfinity

I concur.

Not having Bryce has killed them

@BeddieKU23 said in Living in the ~~After~~ **Never** glow:

Not having Bryce has killed them

I didn't really pay much attention to Bryce when we he was out there. His shot wasn't great, but he did some nice things every game and some freshman things every game. His absence didn't feel like a team killer, but things have definitely turned south since his injury. I'm intrigued by your theory.

@approxinfinity

Yeah he was still showing freshman things but effort was not an issue from him and I thought his defense was something that was really coming along. The fact that Self has nobody but Harris to throw in at the guard position has really created an issue. Harris has his value but he's not a scorer. Bryce seemed like a guy that could be a microwave scorer and that has hurt the offense to some degree.

@bskeet said in Living in the ~~After~~ **Never** glow:

@tundrahok said in Living in the ~~After~~ **Never** glow:

@approxinfinity I think your last point is key. The ball needs to move. Dave doesn't need to have fewer touches for everybody else to have more.

Yes. Passing feels like the key problem for this team. The poor shooting has been confounding because I have seen Abaji and Braun pour in 3s in the past.. This year it is a struggle and I think that is because the defense seems to be on them. Percentages between open and covered 3s are vastly different... and these guys are covered a lot, so there are more rushed and forced 3s.

Better passing can open up guys on the perimeter before defenders can get there. It can also create lanes for driving and opportunities to pass to the interior... If I could pick one thing to improve, I think it would be passing because I think it would in turn relieve many other woes.

The question I haven't been able to answer is why is this team struggling with passing so much?

You got it, pass and pass, and pass some more.