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I know some people would rather lose the big 12 regular season because of a belief that that would somehow make KU more likely to win the national title, but for me, the first title KU can win this year is the Big 12 regular season so I want them to win it.

This year is already shaping up to be a crazy race with Baylor, Texas, Tech, KU, and ISU all ranked and WVU and Oklahoma just outside the top 25. To me this season will be as unpredictable as any in recent memory. With Baylor falling AT HOME to Tech last night and ISU coming extremely close to winning in the PHOG, it seems as if this is one of those years where anything can happen and even the strongest of teams will have setbacks.

How many wins does KU need to secure the title?

Where do the losses come?

What are the must win games?

Other than Baylor and KU, who is the biggest threat to win the league?

1. To me I'm thinking 13 or 14 wins will do it. 13 for a tie at the tope and 14 wins title alone.

2. Obvious tough games are the road games against the top half of the league and home games with Baylor, Texas, and Tech still to come. The good thing here is KU already played and won the normal trap game in Stillwater. I also think that after losing to Tech already, the Hawks will be ready to defend their home court against the Red Raiders. I think KU can weather ONE league loss at home and still win the league.

3. I think it's important to at least split with Baylor, Texas, Tech, and ISU. If KU does that and is able to win the rest, then we are watching the league champs and I'll be optimistic about the possibility of a run in March. This would make must win games, games like at WVU, one of the two Baylor games, at OU, etc.

4. Other than Baylor and KU I think it's tough to argue against Tech as the real 3rd threat to win the big 12. They've already beaten the two best teams in the conference and one of those on the road. That defense is going to be tough to crack. But because they are Tech and the big 12 is stupid good top to bottom, they will have slip ups. I see tech dropping a couple to bottom tier teams at some point and in the end it's a two team race with Baylor and KU. Whoever can hold serve at home, beat up on the bottom half of league, and steal a few from the top half on the road will be the winner. My money would still be on KU at this point because time and time again, Self has shown he can lead a team through the minefield that is the best conference in college basketball.

Those are my takes. What y'all got?

@benshawks08 said in Big 12 Regular Season Title (if that still matters to you):

I know some people would rather lose the big 12 regular season because of a belief that that would somehow make KU more likely to win the national title,

Ha, I think you’ve confused regular season title and tourney title. Big difference. Many in the past have semi rooted to lose early in the Big 12 tourney to rest up, and not jinx our NCAA title hopes, right? Never heard anybody wish to lose the regular season title...

@rockchalkjayhawk said in Big 12 Regular Season Title (if that still matters to you):

@benshawks08 said in Big 12 Regular Season Title (if that still matters to you):

I know some people would rather lose the big 12 regular season because of a belief that that would somehow make KU more likely to win the national title,

Ha, I think you’ve confused regular season title and tourney title. Big difference. Many in the past have semi rooted to lose early in the Big 12 tourney to rest up, and not jinx our NCAA title hopes, right? Never heard anybody wish to lose the regular season title...

They are out there. Arguing that Self is unwilling to sacrifice losses in conference to make players better for the tournament and what not.

Probably 14 or so wins gets it. Although I just don't see Baylor dropping that many more games. A loss will likely sharpen the knife a bit. Tech rode a heck of a wave for a week even short some of their best players.

If 14 wins gets it done and KU is 2-1 currently I'd say road games against at Iowa St, Baylor & West Virginia are the most likely losses. I don't see how this team goes 14-4 currently in league play. I would have to assume a lot of things go right. We probably will have a few more hotly contested home games given the remaining teams that have yet to come to Allen. They won't go undefeated at home if they don't hit that next stride as @kcmatt says in another thread, this team isn't playing to its potential, yet. I'm optimistic last nights win kind of lit the fire a bit. Things like that can easily lead to positive momentum for a team that's going through some things

Feb 5th seems like a good "must win" game against Baylor at home. KU has a stretch of Tech, Kentucky, Iowa St, Baylor, Texas and I think its a must to go at least 3-2 in that sequence.

From what I've seen so far Tech has to be the team that could win considering they have the two biggest wins already. They are still short a very important piece and their defense seems like its borderline really good.

@BeddieKU23 we were really lacking in players last pm. Just getting a healthy remy will help with to's. I think we get a win at isu. Has west virg lost? Ksu has given everyone a game. Covid could enter the pic too. Bobby will get stronger. Feeling good about JCL.

@Crimsonorblue22

WV lost to Texas by 15. They have won 2 straight rather easily since. Looked good defensively the other day against Oklahoma St.

@benshawks08 great questions and discussion.

I don’t think people don’t want KU to win the big 12 in hopes it’s better for the ncaa. What people say is play guys those early non con games and let them have a long leash to learn. Best learning is in game on the job think about any job you’ve had. You can practice and practice but until you’re in it you won’t learn the best from mistakes.

Goal is ncaa title always. Big 12 mini goal as a stepping stone.

14 games must be won
We lose road games against top half of big 12 teams (Tech, Texas, Baylor, ou/isu)
Must win - every single home game must hold serve at home. Self’s system with winning league (which is winning on the road always holds true because we have been so dominate at home). Must split with the top 4 teams I listed.

Texas Tech and Texas then OU-ISU are next up if not Baylor. We are right there with OU-ISU in my mind. If ISU could not turn it over so much they’d be even more dominate. They turn people over like crazy but are then just as careless with it. Need two ball handlers like we had in graham-mason.

11-7 is our final record
Baylor-Tech-UT (unless Beard losses his team)- KU - OU/ISU

I think we should always aim to win the B12. I like the idea of extremely long leashes for new guys in non con. If your name is KU and you finish the season red hot you get a high seed anyway.

A culture of winning tough conference games and having the rotation set by tourney time are important things. I think the volatility of the rotation into conference play should sound alarms that more experimentation might need to happen sooner?

I’m a guy that sees the conference tourney as a nice to have but also a bell weather as to whether the team is peaking at the right time.

@kuballin10 Do you believe this is the WORST team Bill Self has ever put on the floor at Kansas? Because 11-7 would be the worst in conference record he's ever produced. Maybe if Remy never returns and we end up with another injury to say Braun or Och. But outside of that I don't see how this team doesn't win at least 12-13 games in conference.

@benshawks08 said in Big 12 Regular Season Title (if that still matters to you):

@kuballin10 Do you believe this is the WORST team Bill Self has ever put on the floor at Kansas? Because 11-7 would be the worst in conference record he's ever produced. Maybe if Remy never returns and we end up with another injury to say Braun or Och. But outside of that I don't see how this team doesn't win at least 12-13 games in conference.

It's not a just a matter of how this team compares to others during the Self era. At least equally as relevant is the depth of quality of the rest of the conference. The B12 this year is arguably the best it's ever been in terms of both top of the conference strength, as well as overall balance.

The formula during most of Self's tenure has been to win every home game - maybe a single loss every once in a while - and win more road games than anyone else. In most years, KU was just better than most of the conference, and typically could win most road games and not be threatened at home.

That has started to change the past 2-3 years. The aura of KU invincibility in the conference has eroded. Teams feel they can win at AFH. And, we're not winning a majority of road games. We're .500 on the road as of now, and just barely held serve at home. Based on what we've seen so far, I think 13-5 is optimistic and 12-6 or even 11-7 more realistic. Where will feel confident winning away the rest of year - other than maybe Manhattan? And, with a pretty porous defense and inconsistent offense, at least against quality defensive teams, do we really think we'll go undefeated at AFH?

@benshawks08 correct I think it’s the worst team he’s had and without Ochai going off (similar to Vick) we’d be in trouble.

Braun is coming back to earth but it’s a hurt remy and awful Dave that’s killing us.

Also the poster above me outlined why 11-7 because people keep thinking “self will fix this” yet each year is a new year and self can’t play for the players he can only controls who plays. We don’t have the horses this year it’s evident.

@benshawks08 said in Big 12 Regular Season Title (if that still matters to you):

@kuballin10 Do you believe this is the WORST team Bill Self has ever put on the floor at Kansas? Because 11-7 would be the worst in conference record he's ever produced. Maybe if Remy never returns and we end up with another injury to say Braun or Och. But outside of that I don't see how this team doesn't win at least 12-13 games in conference.

this team is not going 11-7 in league there is no way don't worry bud

🐦 View Tweet?s=21

An interesting read about another team that dominates in conference.

Particularly liked the concept that Gonzaga has the best record of any team against the top six conferences and still loses 20% of those games which means winning 6 in a row vs quality opponents (needed for a national championship) is almost always a long shot for EVERY team.

Thought I’d bump this thread now that we are past the toughest stretch of the schedule in conference.

Sitting a full game up with 8 games to go.

Of those 8 only 2 are against ranked opponents and only 3 road games left.

Anyone still see 11-7 on the table?

Also, what happened to ISU? Remember when we thought they were good? Seems like a long time ago.

@benshawks08 said in Big 12 Regular Season Title (if that still matters to you):

🐦 View Tweet?s=21

An interesting read about another team that dominates in conference.

Particularly liked the concept that Gonzaga has the best record of any team against the top six conferences and still loses 20% of those games which means winning 6 in a row vs quality opponents (needed for a national championship) is almost always a long shot for EVERY team.

It's wild, if you have a 90% chance of winning each game individually, you're only a coin flip to win all 6. At 80%, you'll only pull it off about 25% of the time. Say you're a 1 seed and the first game is a gimme and you're a 90% favorite in the remaining 5, you'll cut down the nets 60% of the time, 1/3 of the time if an 80% favorite. S/O to Prof. Haug at KU for drilling probability into my head. DSCI 202 can still GTH

@FarmerJayhawk said in Big 12 Regular Season Title (if that still matters to you):

@benshawks08 said in Big 12 Regular Season Title (if that still matters to you):

🐦 View Tweet?s=21

An interesting read about another team that dominates in conference.

Particularly liked the concept that Gonzaga has the best record of any team against the top six conferences and still loses 20% of those games which means winning 6 in a row vs quality opponents (needed for a national championship) is almost always a long shot for EVERY team.

It's wild, if you have a 90% chance of winning each game individually, you're only a coin flip to win all 6. At 80%, you'll only pull it off about 25% of the time. Say you're a 1 seed and the first game is a gimme and you're a 90% favorite in the remaining 5, you'll cut down the nets 60% of the time, 1/3 of the time if an 80% favorite. S/O to Prof. Haug at KU for drilling probability into my head. DSCI 202 can still GTH

Curious what the odds at craps are. Maybe calling it a crap shoot is generous!

I also don’t think there’s a team this year with that 90% chance to win every game. There are rare years where there is a truly dominant team that’s just better but this year doesn’t really have one. Make me feel a little better about our chances knowing everyone is really a long shot this year.

@benshawks08 Craps odds are easy to find. Use Google and search for "craps payout charts." Compare the payouts to what you find for "craps dice odds" and then you can see how various payouts set by casinos are good or bad. Or horrible on many cruise ships....

Landen Lucas interviewing EJ right now:

@benshawks08 I found a great one:

!Screenshot_20220209-193126_Chrome.jpg ↗

@Jethro said in Big 12 Regular Season Title (if that still matters to you):

Landen Lucas interviewing EJ right now:

Just started listening to these podcasts. Pretty enjoyable!

@benshawks08 11-7? That's 3-5 with games against Baylor and Texas, but also Silo Tech, Okie St, OU, and TCU. Don't see us going 3-5 against that. I think we'll go 6-2 pretty easily. I think we end up 14-4 and win outright. I think we probably lose at Baylor, and a random game. I do think we whip Texas ass in the rematch.

@Jethro The 11-7 was a call back to some of the posters above who were confident this was the worst KU team Self has ever produced.

@benshawks08 It's really good stuff. That channel has Landen on, along with the Miller Bros ( Archie Miller and Stubby Miller) at times who analyze and breakdown alot of our games. They also break down the top teams, so it's very interesting to watch the science involved in the game. I gave them a subscribe.

@benshawks08 I don't think they thought we would be 8-2, leading the B12 by a game at this point. The Baylor myth is strong like bull.

@Jethro said in Big 12 Regular Season Title (if that still matters to you):

@benshawks08 11-7? That's 3-5 with games against Baylor and Texas, but also Silo Tech, Okie St, OU, and TCU. Don't see us going 3-5 against that. I think we'll go 6-2 pretty easily. I think we end up 14-4 and win outright. I think we probably lose at Baylor, and a random game. I do think we whip Texas ass in the rematch.

I agree Jethro -I can see us Only losing at Baylor - then again MAYBE - MAYBE Baylor & WV at Morgantown- - -I think 15-3 is a possibility or at worst 14-4

I think you are gonna see another ol fashion butt whipping when Texas comes to the phog- -they didn't defend us worth a crap we shot 56% for the night. - -It was our TO'S and missed later free throws that killed us - - that and that brick the idiot put up bout broke the back board and it went in

@benshawks08 said in Big 12 Regular Season Title (if that still matters to you):

@Jethro The 11-7 was a call back to some of the posters above who were confident this was the worst KU team Self has ever produced.

I will confess that I was one of those who thought 12-6 was distinctly possible. But, I also noted that was less a comment about this Hawks team - neither the worst nor the best of the Self era - than it was about the overall quality and depth of the B12 this year. We've seen that play out night after night, apropos of OU's beat down of TTU last night. Although it's been a knife's edge, sitting at 8-2 right now with 5 of the remaining 8 at home puts us in a pretty good position. But we need to hold serve. We still need to play at Baylor, WVU will be tougher with Sherman back, and winning back to back games with TCU won't be easy.

Sure looking like 13-5 gets this done. So all we have to do is 4-3 down the stretch. Still have KSU and OSU at home, two against TCU, and at WVU. I sure hope we can get 4 of those. Should beat Texas at AFH too. At Waco is gravy

@FarmerJayhawk I don't see three more losses for Baylor with their remaining schedule.

@BShark still get to add to the banner if we split 😎

I heard on the radio, somebody from Baylor, the guy I can't spell, hurt his knee today. Tchatchoua

@Crimsonorblue22 said in Big 12 Regular Season Title (if that still matters to you):

I heard on the radio, somebody from Baylor, the guy I can't spell, hurt his knee today.

Unfortunately for Baylor, it looks like Tchatchoua may be done. I hate to see that happen, and mean that seriously.

@DCHawker yes! Is their transfer still out too? Boy do we know how that sucks!

@Crimsonorblue22 said in Big 12 Regular Season Title (if that still matters to you):

@DCHawker yes! Is their transfer still out too? Boy do we know how that sucks!

Cryer did not play again today. They haven't been at full strength for a while....

@Crimsonorblue22 said in Big 12 Regular Season Title (if that still matters to you):

I heard on the radio, somebody from Baylor, the guy I can't spell, hurt his knee today. Tchatchoua

It looked really bad. I couldn't tell from the video if it was non contact or he caught the heel of a UT player going up the floor, but he hyperextended his knee big time. Baylor officials are saying it's a "significant" injury and he's out indefinitely so I'm guessing they're waiting for swelling to go down enough to do an MRI and see what all he tore in his knee.

@Texas-Hawk-10 said in Big 12 Regular Season Title (if that still matters to you):

@Crimsonorblue22 said in Big 12 Regular Season Title (if that still matters to you):

I heard on the radio, somebody from Baylor, the guy I can't spell, hurt his knee today. Tchatchoua

It looked really bad. I couldn't tell from the video if it was non contact or he caught the heel of a UT player going up the floor, but he hyperextended his knee big time. Baylor officials are saying it's a "significant" injury and he's out indefinitely so I'm guessing they're waiting for swelling to go down enough to do an MRI and see what all he tore in his knee.

From what I could tell see - he just crumpled right about half court, didn't look like anybody made any contact - -but dunno know for sure

I still think we have a very serious shot at 14-4 for the league I think w lose at Baylor but other then that - TAKE CARE OF BUSINESS

Been a challenging year for Baylor. Hate to see players go down for any team. I don't see a Baylor repeat in March.

KU ends the regular season with 4 games in 8 days starting with the Baylor game in Waco. KU gets 2 days if and then has 3 games in 5 days and all of those games are against teams likely to be in the NCAA tournament and potentially all against top half of the Big 12 teams as well.

I feel like 5-2 to close out the season is doable and really 6-1 is a strong possibility as well which would guarantee a split at worst and probably outright because I don't think Baylor finishes 6-0.

@jayballer67 I found the slow mo replay to be so bad I had to look away, which doesn't happen very often.

@Jethro Yeah, I found a replay of the Tchatchoua injury and one viewing was enough.

I suppose it's possible he just sort of dislocated/hyperextended the knee, but it had to mess something up.

@Jethro said in Big 12 Regular Season Title (if that still matters to you):

@jayballer67 I found the slow mo replay to be so bad I had to look away, which doesn't happen very often.

ya I hate to see that for anybody. - -I mean he was just running up the floor , didn't really hit anyone or get caught up - just sucks was really ugly

I'd hate to say it is looking pretty good, but the way I'm looking at it a share of the B12 title is basically in hand. Baylor has to win out and we have to drop 2 of our next 6.

We have WVU, KSU, Baylor, TCU, TCU and UT.

That WVU game is a bit of a trap game, but they just don't have the horses. KSU already had their superbowl against us and it wasn't enough. Baylor will be ready for the next matchup. But TCU we should get both of those.

Baylor has @ Tech and @ UT left on their schedule. I think it'll be tough for them to win out.

@Kcmatt7 Let's win all 6 and remove any doubts who the best team in B12 is.

I like our chances of winning outright or sharing our conference title... but learned never to take for granted.

To not finish first, KU will have to lose 3 of their next 6, and Baylor or TTU would have to go undefeated.

Tech could do it if they win at UT on Saturday. Baylor could do it, but will need to win at home against us and on the road in Austin as well.

Barring a pretty unlikely meltdown the B12 is locked up.

We're one injury away from being in a really bad situation because we have no bench. If that injury ended up being Dejuan, KU doesn't have a back up point guard right now.

If anybody listened/read excerpts from Hawk Talk, Self flat out said Yesufu is not a point guard and Pettiford is only playing right now to give Harris a minute or two because that's all Pettiford can do. So if anybody thinks Self won't play Remy if Remy gets healthy, they are mistaken because Remy is the only other point guard right now.

As long as KU stays healthy, they should win the league, but it's not a guarantee because of how thin KU's depth is right now.

@Texas-Hawk-10

Agree we are an injury away from how every season goes really. We always have an issue keeping players healthy.

However I think this Remy situation is more then the knee and that's why I would not expect him back even if injury forced Selfs hand. Just my two cents

Today remy told self he feels better😳 but he's not playing this weekend. Covid also scares me too, almost as much as an injury.