🏀 KuBuckets Archive

Fun little table I put together. KU's best team per Kenpom won the title. 2nd best team lost in the 2nd round. 3rd best team tourney canceled due to Covid.

This is currently Self's 9th best team in 19 years. The 8 teams ahead of this years squad, 6 of them 8 made the Elite 8 or further including a Runner-up & Title. Covid year canceled the 19-20 title run.

The 4 teams immediately below this years squad, worst finish was a 2nd round exit, best finish is a Final 4.

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Let's Discuss

I really think this team is even better than they've shown. Last season basically this exact same group was 4 points better defensively than they have been so far this year. I know MG was a special defender, but Harris is no slouch. It isn't like we went from MG to some scrub.

It also feels like Bill isn't done tinkering quite yet. He's got a few more levers to pull, and that is almost refreshing to think about in February. Basically, we aren't hitting our stride/reaching that full potential but he's trying. Historically it has felt like he just goes down to 7-8 man rotations in January and that is it for the season. Not this year. Not yet.

All of this to say, I feel like this team can make a run at the whole thing. History is not on their side given their rating, but I also think this team is probably better than their kenpom rating. While other teams have probably played better than they are capable of for a 6 game stretch, our group seems like they have another gear they just haven't shifted to quite yet. Something about this group just feels special to me.

@Kcmatt7

It's interesting that this is the 2nd best offense Self has had per Kenpom. A few of the teams that fit the comp for good offense but average d bode well. I agree if Yesufu and Zach are regular parts of the rotation going forward it's going to be interesting to see where this team's rating and rank is after the big-12 tournament. That's potentially 9 more games worth of data.

I honestly don't think this teams defense is going to get any better but I do think we haven't seen the best this team can do on offense. If this team has a Championship ceiling it's going to be how far can this offense take them.

@BeddieKU23 I guess my thought is that the defense can be better if the guys are engaged. Last season it almost HAD to be better just to only lose 9 games. This year, they have gotten to coast a bit... Get up 10, then coast for a few minutes. They lose that momentum/engagement.

You can see what this team does when they are (and mostly CB honestly) engaged. Baylor and Mizzou are prime examples of what a hyped team are capable of bringing.

I do agree the offense can get better. Just Joe making wide open 3s at .384 like he is capable vs. .226 and Zach getting PT improves the offense pretty significantly.

Also interesting that our worst defensive team by far (2017-2018) made it to the Final Four. Not the conventional wisdom.

@BeddieKU23 Excellent work! Now you need to find more ways to fill up that extra time on your hands...

This re-opened the 09-10 wound. Gaaaaaah that team should have been at least FF.

@mayjay said in Kenpom rating vs NCAA tourney success:

@BeddieKU23 Excellent work! Now you need to find more ways to fill up that extra time on your hands...

Well it was either this or picking up golf, which right now is rather difficult right now as the land is buried in snow.

Interesting taking this current team and comparing to the team below and above them.

One makes the finals the other lost in the Sweet 16. Both of those teams had Top 5 defenses with below average offenses compared to Self's avg in 19 seasons.

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We just cannot stop easy inside chances. Also mid range adepts keep us from holding larger leads.

@BeddieKU23 The 12-13 team is such a heartbreaker. Took a lot of things going wrong in 11 seconds for them to not. Sad that season won't get remembered, because that team was fun. Lone season of BMac. 4 seniors in the starting lineup.

The 11-12 team I really never know how they did what they did. Had two walk-ons in the rotation. The 2nd most overachieving team in KUBB history.

@Kcmatt7

Yeah I can't even talk about the 12-13 year. It's beyond a sore subject but it is what it is. Very interesting to see the metrics for this year's team close to those 2 teams. It was good to see perhaps this team has a s16 or higher ceiling. Really looks like matchups are going to be so important for us this yr

Dug a little deeper.

KU has been a #1 seed in the tourney 8 times under Self. When KU is a 1 seed they average 3 wins in the tourney. Only once (09-10) did they not advance past the first weekend.

As a #2 Seed, average 2 wins with 2 round losses & a title runner-up.

As a #3 Seed, average 1 win with best finish Sweet 16.

As a #4 seed, average 1 win with best finish an Elite 8.

As a 1 seed the average Self team outscored opponents by 14.67 ppg. As a 2-4 seed, Self teams outscored opponents by an avg of 9ppg.

On Offense, the 6 highest scoring teams under Self- 1 championship, 1 Final 4, 3 Elite 8's, 1 2nd round exit.

On Defense, the 6 best defensive teams under Self- 1 Championship, 1 title runner-up, 1 Elite 8, 1 Sweet 16, 1 first round exit, Cancelled tourney.

Right now this is the 7th highest scoring offense under Self per game & 14th overall for points given up per game. The 4 teams that gave up more points per game- 1 Final 4, 1 Elite 8 & 2 2nd round exits.

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This team doesn't feel like a one seed but they might sneak into that spot...

@Kcmatt7 said in Kenpom rating vs NCAA tourney success:

@BeddieKU23 The 12-13 team is such a heartbreaker. Took a lot of things going wrong in 11 seconds for them to not. Sad that season won't get remembered, because that team was fun. Lone season of BMac. 4 seniors in the starting lineup.

Siiiiigh.

The 11-12 team I really never know how they did what they did. Had two walk-ons in the rotation. The 2nd most overachieving team in KUBB history.

Grit. If not for a legendary UK team that even Cal couldn't screw up they would have been the top overachiever.

@BeddieKU23 2012-2013 is right up there with 1996- 1997 as the worst losses in history. Or, I should say...in my history.

@BShark said in Kenpom rating vs NCAA tourney success:

This team doesn't feel like a one seed but they might sneak into that spot...

Bracket Matrix has them as the 4th #1 seed right now just above Kentucky/Baylor. Winning out and no doubt they'll be a 1 seed.

@BeddieKU23 said in Kenpom rating vs NCAA tourney success:

@BShark said in Kenpom rating vs NCAA tourney success:

This team doesn't feel like a one seed but they might sneak into that spot...

Bracket Matrix has them as the 4th #1 seed right now just above Kentucky/Baylor. Winning out and no doubt they'll be a 1 seed.

I'm guessing we lose 1-2 more, but still should win the league.

@BShark

I would be surprised if we win out as well. It would certainly validate a #1 seed if they did. I definitely expect the road game at Baylor to be difficult to win and the back to back against TCU in 3 days also problematic.

Luckily Jalen returned to form, otherwise this team would have been out of the top 25, IMO. When you look at these guys, other than maybe Ochai, no one on this roster would be even in the top five at their positions at KU in the Bill Self era.

Dave < Dok, Withey, Kaun, Jackson, Cole, Embid, Trob, Morrii etc

Jalen < Arthur, Wright, Wiggins, Josh, Dedric, Perry etc

Och </= Rush, BenMac, Oubre, Langford

Braun < EJ, RussRob, Svi, Selden, Garrett, Devonte

Harris < all of 'em that played pg (Dotson, Mason, Chalmers, Sheron, Tyshawn etc)

YET... there seems to be some sort of chemistry developing.

@DanR interesting Och discussion
Och </= Rush, BenMac, Oubre, Langford

I’d probably take em in this order: Rush, Langford, Och, Oubre, Ben Mac

Langford is one of my all time favs.

KU back to a #1 seed in Bracketology.

OU & Iowa St on the last 4 byes

K-St on the next four out.

@BeddieKU23 It is going to be a fight for that last #1 seed. A bit worried we have to win out to get it

@Kcmatt7

At this point only 4 other teams could seriously be in contention for that last seed. Kentucky, Baylor, Purdue, Duke. Baylor lost a significant piece in Jonathan Chimmy-Changa & they haven't played like a #1 seed for a while now. They have 5 loses since Jan 1 as well. I don't see them as a serious threat to that spot. That leaves Kentucky, Purdue & Duke. Purdue probably has the best shot of the 3 since they lead the Big-10 & have a strong resume. Kentucky is playing 2nd fiddle in their own conference so seems unlikely unless they won out and won the SEC tourney over Auburn. Duke has the two big wins over Kentucky/Zaga that's going to keep them in the conversation even if the ACC is extremely down this year. I don't know how you could reward them with a #1 seed though when they haven't played a ranked team since November 26th.

When's the last time a top 10 Power 5 school went 3 months without facing a good team. SMH

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All CB slander must end.

@BShark God I hope he comes back next season

@Kcmatt7 said in Kenpom rating vs NCAA tourney success:

@BShark God I hope he comes back next season

There's no reason Braun shouldn't come back. Braun is a solid player, but he's not NBA material. Even though Braun's shooting has mostly been garbage since conference play started, he hasn't disappeared like he did last year so he's still been a net positive unlike last year where he was less than useless if he didn't are shots.

I'm assuming Auburn, Gonzaga, amd Arizona are basically locks for 1 seeds at this point. I'd honestly rather see KU end up as 2 seed because the 4th 1 seed is going to end up in the East regional and I'd rather see KU end up in San Antonio with Arizona because I think that'sa better match up for KU. The East region would probably be looking at either Kentucky or Duke as the 2 seed and those aren't good match ups for Kansas. In San Antonio as a 2 seed, KU would probably end up with Villanova/Providence as the 3 seed and I like those match ups for KU especially without Gillespie for Nova now.

The best thing about this year's tournament is every serious contender has a major flaw so it's not like last year where everyone basically knew it would be between Baylor and Gonzaga.

@Texas-Hawk-10 no Gillespie ?

@Crimsonorblue22 said in Kenpom rating vs NCAA tourney success:

@Texas-Hawk-10 no Gillespie ?

He's far below 100% with an ankle injury. He's not even practicing at this point and is only playing games. He might actually be in worse shape that Pettiford and Remy right now.

@Texas-Hawk-10 I thought he had a big game recently?

@Texas-Hawk-10 Here is a very good sheet that the author describes as " latest BracketMatrix projections and compare to current Pomeroy and Massey Composite rankings to give a snapshot of who's looking dangerous and who's looking overrated based on current projections."

It shows us as being listed as a 1 seed, while his numbers show us as a solid 2 seed. It also shows teams that appear to be underseeded, and overseeded. Here's a link:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vR1Rn-c63helhHLYRf7ImDE4ZT8k68bVMYIrH2gnqaLW5BNkYxhimI4MqxAVm-FFTSZilZBNUO6hjVQ/pubhtml ↗

Here is also a link to Bracket Matrix : http://bracketmatrix.com/ ↗

Question: Will the B12 get 4 or 5 teams in the tourney? Do the Clones get in with their horrid conference record? Ditto for OU. Does TCU have a shot?

@Crimsonorblue22 said in Kenpom rating vs NCAA tourney success:

@Texas-Hawk-10 I thought he had a big game recently?

He lit up Providence for 33 points in their last game. Pretty damn good for less than 100% and being in worse condition than Remy and Bobby....

@Jethro would think it’s gotta be more than 4. All 10 teams are in 62 or better on Kenpom

Matchups are always the most important factor beyond a teams’ control but I’m not sure looking at 1s and 2s is going to be a matchup that really matters too much this year. As pointed out by others above, every team is flawed this year I'm doubting there will be a ton of chalk come bracket time.

With that in mind I don’t even think a 1 or a 2 really matters. I’d rather have a favorable location for travel of team and fans. This team has made themselves into a team capable of winning a title. They are not going to be a front runner or likely even a popular pick amongst pundits but they’ve shown they can beat good teams. Unfortunately they’ve also exposed vulnerabilities as well and are equally as capable of losing to a team they are better than.

@approxinfinity I think OU's goose is cooked. They play at the Clones today, and then at Tech next game. No doubt they'll be favored their last 3, but that only makes them 18-15 if they win out ( assuming they lose at Clones and Tech). They would need some B12 tourney wins to get a chance.

The Clones have 4 winnable games and then they play Baylor, so they have a shot. I'm going to predict they make it, but they will be a low seed if they do.

TCU has the hardest path of all. They have games against 5 ranked teams left, and a home and home against WVU. Assuming they split with WVU, they end up 17-13 if they can't manage to pull an upset. A B12 tourney win along with the wins over LSU and the Clones could pull them thru, but I have my doubts.

Silo Tech has 3 road games left, 2 against ranked teams. I'm guessing 17-13, and once again it's another team that needs B12 tourney wins to secure a spot.

So, I'm saying we get 5 teams in, with a definite maybe on 6. The B12 has been devouring each other the whole year. I can't wait until we expand and get rid of this round robin crap once and for all.

KU was a 1 seed in the preview bracket by the NCAA today.

However if you listened to ESPN today we aren't that good apparently