I think a new contract for LL is pretty much inevitable.
There's been a lot of twitter debate. There are people that I would consider lunatics that think KU is a good job any good coach can win at. They wouldn't pay LL more than $5M maybe.
I think KU is a place the right guy can win at. And there may only be a handful of those guys walking the planet at any given time. KU seems to have found one of them.
Personally, I think LL is WORTH to the univesrity easily $15M/yr. He won't get that, but he's worth that. I'll explain why:
-
We sold $2.7M in tickets in 2019. The full 7 game schedule. A sold out Booth can get you about ~$2M in a single game. That is before parking and concessions. A full 7 game schedule sold out nets ~$15M in tickets, and $16M-$17M in total revenue. That alone justifies paying him $10M/yr.
-
Enrollment and endowment donations have a direct correlation to program success. KU saw their largest freshmen class since 2008. It is no coincidence that it was following a National Championship in basketball. Sustaining success in football would guarantee increased enrollment. And each enrollee is worth ~$18k/yr. 555 additional enrollees at the University per year would bring in $10M in additional funds. Enrollment as a whole is actually down at the university this year, so it is CRUCUIAL that they continue this growth starting with this year's freshman class. Donations also are a direct correlation with success. I haven't looked at the new Endowment numbers yet, but I can bet they are up as well. All together, we are talking well over $10M/yr that could be influenced by football's success.
-
Conference realignment. If KU's football team can stay hot for a stretch of 10 years and actually build something, they are once again a hot commodity come conference realignment. The B10 is expecting to be able to distribute an additional $10M starting this next year, and they were already the top conference. It could legitimately be a $10M-20M difference in conference distributions per year. LL building the football program into something the B10 would be interested in would be incredible.
-
The future value of success today is incalculable. But what I can say is that I grew up knowing KSU had a better program. Kids today know that. But if we can upgrade our facilities, sustain some success, we can have an entire generation of local kids going to KU instead of KSU. Meaning once LL does leave, the chance KU can hire a good coach again and have success in the future is so, so much higher.
I would argue that at this very second, there might not be a coach that means more to a program than LL. If he leaves for Nebraska or Wisconsin because they are better opportunities, I won't blame him. But KU should pay whatever it takes to keep him here. It can be whatever ridiculous number. I think he's a unicorn, and can take KU to places we couldn't imagine. And even if he isn't, we know he will keep this program at least at a respectable level. KU wouldn't lose money signing LL to a $10M/yr deal. They just wouldn't. But he might literally be one of the biggest bargains in sports, even at $10M/yr, if he turns KU into a perennial winner.
(Note: I don't think KU is going to pay him $10M/yr. My point is simply that KU should match, or pay more, than whoever offers him this offseason. KU cannot afford to lose him).