@DoubleDD
So much depends on the KIND of scheme Self is envisioning for this year's team. Each year Self restrings the hi-lo bow in subtle ways that change what is required from a certain position. Some years he will tolerate a lot of TOs out of the PG, if he intends for the PG to be making most of the entry passes into the post, because he knows the defense will know this and make those entry passes very high risk at times. Other years, Self wants to spread the entry passing around to the PG and one or both wings. In that case, then TOs become tantamount to blaspheming in the front row on Easter Sunday. Sometimes he wants everyone stripping, other years not. He usually sets the standards so that they enable his players with the most consistent MUA to get-her done. Last year, once he decided Joel was the man, then the ball was going inside no matter what and he knew that he wanted Selden and Wiggins on the stripe as kick out threats, so that meant Tharpe was going to be the guy forcing the passes and Self was willing to live Tharpe's dubious defense to get that entry passing, even if Tharpe's concentration wavered intermittently. As a result, it became very tough for Mason to be Tharpe's backup, even though Tharpe sucked often enough to need a lot of backing up, because Mason just didnt grow up making entry passes and he just wasn't up to the challenge of learning against the toughest schedule in 15-20 years. That's why we saw so much Tharpe inspite of his problems. And that's why we saw Conner come on at the end, even though D1 defense turned him into a 32% triacetate. Conner could, if the pace were slowed, force the ball inside and make fewer TOs forcing it than Mason.
So back to this coming season and Svi.
Svi could show up at the 1, 2, or 3 in back up minutes. But whether he gets those backup minutes at any of those positions depends on what Self is wanting at those positions and whether or not at Svi's tender age he can deliver when the combat starts. I've watched some of this international ball, especially this shizz in the Canary Islands this past week with Consonants coaching a combination of pros and D1 guys. They aren't playing rough at all. It doesn't look like Svi's summer competition is playing very rough either. D1 ball, even with the new foul calling, especially the Big 12 version of it, gets brutal in mid January through to the end the minute they find a team, or a player that can be mauled without being able to fight back and still be effective on offense. At the 2, Self is going to be expecting Selden to be our go to guy and be very physical, when the other team brings out the brass knuckles. Backing Selden up is going to take someone that can take smash mouth. Svi does not seem that type...yet, so backing up Selden and keeping the team dynamic within the likely very physical standards Selden is likely to set (and attract), may not be where Svi can get-her done this year.
Next the 3--Oubre is the OAD, and though long, he is pretty strong and you can bet Self is going to ask him to play physical. But OADs never have foundations as high their ceilings and so someone is going to get 15-20 minutes backing Oubre up. Greene looks like he has a line on this position, but the 3 slot could easily get too physical for Greene to handle full time during conference season. Greene is feisty, but there is a difference between feisty and playing smash mouth 3 game in and game out, which the Big 12 coaches like to do if you go slight at the 3. Self has gone slight at the 3 with Brady Morningstar, but its clear that he didn't like doing it and quit when ever he got a meatier player that could get-her done (which alas, he often could not get). So: Self is going to be very tempted to split the backup 3 between Greene and a swinging Perry Ellis. Ellis is going to have to help out with the smash mouth, even though Perry is a weak smash mouth player at the 4. Thus if the 3 is strung physically, as it likely will be, Greene will probably have first dibs on the few games where the opponent plays a finesse 3. So Svi's only chance at the 3 seems to be if Greene can't shed the wild hair from his coat and learn to play an old man's game and wield his trey gun more accurately than last year. And even then, Svi will only be getting a few backup minutes against some infrequent finesse 3s.
Which brings us to the PG and the key question: just what the hell does Self want out of a PG this season? If he wants a penetrator half court plus a bunch of run outs in transition, then Mason seems to be the obvious choice. But neither Conner, nor Svi, seem particularly suited to sustain that sort of dynamic in relief. Here the question is: can a freshman like Graham add an afterburner without producing a bunch of scorched pop tarts? If past were prologue, the answer would be no. This is a scheming problem for Self, because Mason may be his best PG, but Mason starting may not enable a desirable substitution dynamic. Self likes to sustain team dynamics with substitutions rather than completely kill what the team was trying to do before the substitution. He likes for the substitutes not only to guard and not screw up (minimum ante), but also to give the team a bit of a goose in the direction it was already headed, if possible, and possibly toss the rock in the hole from trifectaville once or twice. Again, I don't see Conner, or Svi, or Graham, being able to come in and light the candle after Mason, because Mason is blindingly fast already. So: what is an Okie Baller without a rim protector to do?
Me thinks starting one of the slower PGs and then chasing with Mason is how this thing will play out after a false start of leading a few games with Mason and then watching the works bog down with the slower guards rotating in.
When you play with short bigs, you have no choice but to make you bigs move and move all the time. When you play with short bigs, even if they are strong like some of ours will be, and able to stay on spots, you can't hope for them to be effective staying on those spots. In essence, Self faces a similar problem he faced with Kevin and Withey, who were tall, but too skinny to stay on spots. Now he has guys strong enough to stay on spots, but not tall enough to do much when they are on those spots. With Kevin and Withey, Self and Joe Dooley solved the problem by resorting to a sliding-off-the-spots-offense that was truly one of the weirdest, most wonderful offenses ever run. I suspect Self is going to have to resort to that same offense with his strong, short, but highly mobile big men this season. Take the spot, then slide off it and take the feed on the way off the spot. It was a high risk entry pass offense, but The Prophet, so intensely criticized by so many, ran it brilliantly even on only one good leg. As Self said, EJ was great at passing forward. And at hitting moving targets coming off spots in all directions. So: who might do this sort of passing best this season? Well, Conner, Davonte and Svi seem to be the leading candidates. But this sort of passing favors the taller point guard, who has to be able to throw it over the top of their own moving defenders to hit hi-lo's coming off spots to get away from their taller defenders. This biases things toward Davonte and Svi. If one starts either, on can then rotate the other in and keep the sliding of the spots action going. And if the sliding off the spots action is not going well, then you either bring Mason to light the candle on the offense, or you bring Conner to stretch the offense with trey shooting. This scenario means that all of these guards could see time situationally. And it also means that the team would be strung in a way that would favor Svi, if Svi were to be as good as he is reputed to be and were to develop rapidly.
This is all a lot of ifs.
As HEM will rightly say, Self cuts it to seven, or eight. You can't really play all of these guards under normal circumstances of Bill Self being Bill Self.
My only defense is: these may not be normal circumstances. :-)
So: HEM is probably right and Svi's time will come next season, but I just have a hunch this kid is pretty good and Self has the hots for him. That often translates to more PT than how the team looks on paper might otherwise justify.
