This is not a pleasant discussion. This discussion does require one to be objective. From time to time I've asked of folks to "Free your mind." If you come to this discussion with a mind that is not free enough to consider possibilities beyond coach Self's basketball world, then log off now. This is not for you. If you have a propensity for citing conference championships as the gospel, then you simply don't get it. Take the escape hatch now. If, however, you would like to challenge yourself, read further. Critique. Analyze. Postulate. Free your mind.
-
What We Witnessed: Folks, this was a disaster. WSU's defensive scheme was better, their offensive scheme was better, and their players were clearly more inspired. This was a knock-out. It's very disappointing to me. Last season, I felt very strongly that Self was outcoached by Johnny Dawkins. Dawkins shut down Wiggins with an active strategy to do so, and used his team's height to contest our looks at the rim. What was most disappointing was our failure to adjust our attack. This season was a little different. What we saw vs. WSU was what we have seen since we we 21-4. It was more endemic than the issues last season. But in a complete white wash, Gregg Marshall outcoached Bill Self. Marshall was even ahead on the Soviet judge's scorecard when Self's head hit the canvas.
-
Our NCAA Reality: The fact is, in 12 NCAA tournaments, Kansas has underachieved by 10 seeding lines under coach Self. I graded it out by seeds. If you have a 1 seed, Final Four. 2 seed, Elite Eight. 3 or 4 seed, Sweet 16. Bonus point for getting to the title game. Two points for winning the title. 2004 +1; 2005 -2; 2006 -2; 2007 -1; 2008 +2; 2009 even; 2010 -3; 2011 -1; 2012 +2; 2013 -2; 2014 -2; and 2015 -2. Total = -10. That is reality. You can't dress that up. March has not been kind. March doesn't lie, the ultimate judge and jury on the path the greatness.
-
Bad Ball: We left Lubbock after thrashing Texas Tech by 20+ on the road 20-4. We returned to AFH, beat Baylor's zone using our zone offense, and stood 21-4. Self adjusted our zone offense in that game, moving to an even man front against Baylor's odd man front zone. Again, 21-4. Then it happened. Everything changed. @jaybate-1.0 coined the term, "bad ball." Our offense changed from an offense that searched out the post feed and shot nearly 18 three pointers a game, to a drive, drive, and drive some more approach. Self preached that we needed to get the ball to the basket, and score inside. This was just a different way to score inside. Drawing fouls was a large part of the theory. Muck up the game, make it ugly, draw fouls, get to the line, and win by attrition.
-
Bad Ball An Unequivocal Failure: Simply compare pre-bad ball to post-bad ball. The numbers don't lie. Most importantly, Kansas was 21-4 pre-bad ball. Kansas was 6-5 post bad ball. Bad ball did not win the conference. Bad ball nearly lost it. Pre-bad ball had Kansas standing at 10-2 in conference. Bad ball had us at 3-3 in conference. And we know bad ball didn't win the Big 12 tourney. And we know bad ball didn't get us out of the second round of the NCAA tourney. In conference games before bad ball, we were +9.5 in margin of victory. After bad ball began, we were just +2.5 (which includes both the NMSU and WSU blowouts). The worst part about "Bad Ball" is not the drive it to the hoop approach. I never had any argument with that -- the search to score inside. The flaw, the fatal flaw, was the abandonment of our three point game and our jump shooting. Self called this group the best shooting team he has had at Kansas. Yet he pushed that to the back of the bus. This shift was an unequivocal failure. Not only did Self's change in offensive strategy not improve our offense, it made our offense .. and our team .. worse. There is no denying that now. Self's move away from the status quo made our offense worse, led to less team success, and sent our season into the toilet. Self flat out blew it. Our offensive efficiency went into the tank. Our points per possession went south. We were lost. We had no offensive rhythm. And basketball season is over. Yes, Marshall outcoached Self ... but this result was over a month in the making. It wasn't a one game strategy failure like Stanford.
-
Lost Without The Post Feed: This is perhaps the biggest takeaway from this season -- Bill Self struggles as an offensive coach without the post feed. Bill Self's lack of offensive acumen was clearly exposed this season. He is a one trick pony. When the post feed was removed from his offense, he floundered. No one can dispute that. It's one of two things. Either Self just isn't a very good offensive mind, or Self is just entrenched in the offensive dogma he preaches. I believe it is a chunk of both. And this is his fatal flaw. But we've seen our offense struggle for years, even with the post feed in high gear. Is this surprising? Heck, some football coaches are better defensively than offensively. That applies to basketball too. Self's aversion to the three point shot is famous and this limits his world view, so to speak, of basketball offense. We talk about it. Local sport reporters talk about it. National commentators talk about it. John Gasaway on ESPN, just before the WSU game, said, "Who will make the 3s this time around? Likely not Kansas. Self's aversion to the 3-point shot is relative and not absolute (he's no Roy Williams or Larry Brown), but it is also well-documented and above all consistent." This aversion to the three pointer will continue to keep Kansas from reaching it's offensive peak, even when we can feed the post with impunity. And it destroyed this team's chances this season. We need a new offensive coordinator. A director of offensive operations for Self to rely upon.
-
Post Feed Futility Obvious Early: At a very, very early stage in this season, many of us identified that the post feed with this team was futile. UK was a horrific foreshadowing. Without doubt, it was by the Utah game. We had witnessed Brannen Greene win Kansas the Georgetown game. Then, against Utah, we had our best half of basketball, ravaging the Utes from outside in the first half. Self mocked Ellis' outside efforts at halftime, first uttering the Fool's Gold baloney. In the second half, we were horrible. Self clearly mandated that we pound the post for much of the second half -- I documented our possession here after the game. We barely hang on and won a game where we had built a 20 point lead at home (Sprint Center). What was obvious was that we had no real ability to score against long and athletic players. Perry was overmatched. Cliff lacked any go to move. Traylor and Lucas were simply underskilled. I reiterate -- this was obvious. And it was posted about regularly. This was not a secret. We could not reliably score inside. I took some gruff for suggesting that Self was delusional in this pursuit. Nothing has changed. Just more evidence. It took coach Self until after the TT game on February 10 to finally abandon it as our go to offensive focus. Oddly, the pound the post approach permitted our excellent three point shooting to shine to a great degree. Not to the degree it could have, to be sure, but as we've seen, much better than the alternative.
-
Self Is Right And The Three Point Shot: My position on this is regularly misconstrued. My sole reason to believe that we should increase our three point attempts to 20-25 per game was because we couldn't score efficiently inside. I spoke of "this Kansas team", being sure not to include other groups. Now, I have and always will believe that the post feed is the best offensive weapon when you can score effectively in that manner. But when you score inside regularly, that creates a more difficult argument. No doubt that coach Self is right, though. It's better to have reliable scoring near the bucket. But that does not have to be to the exclusion of the next best offensive weapon, the three point shot. And three point shooting, actually, can be reliable. Much thanks to @tundrahok. We had discussion on game day about three point attempts. And actually, as he pointed out, our three point shooting percentage increased the more we shot them. It was not a weapon of diminishing returns for this Kansas team. Really, it's just a reasonable part of a balanced offensive attack. Look at WSU. Did that look like a team that lived and died by the three (a phrase no one has endorsed)? They only shot 20, and made 10. That was just a part of their attack. As we recognized way early in the season, it was necessary for this team to achieve its offensive peak to capitalize on the three point shot. And that was the discussion -- how could this team maximize its offensive output? Self refused to capitalize on our teams' greatest weapon, which was perimeter shooting. A massive failure.
-
What Self Should Have Done: This is really very simple. I said this early on -- simply continue with your high/low offense. Embrace the three point shot. Work hard to scheme to get open three point looks from the high/low. That type of attack, premised on outside shooting, would then open up the inside for easier post feed scores. Self's decision to increase our efforts to drive the ball, instead of post feeds, might not have been necessary. But it certainly could have been part of a two pronged attack. Drive and shoot the three point shot. We saw that with WSU. And folks, all it would have required were some tweaks to our current offense. Work in some rule variations in our motion offense that could have been "add ons" in practice. What is amazing is that our normal offense does create three point looks. Using Perry at the high post to drive, but also as a pick and pop four -- not difficult. Remember Andrew White in that role vs. Belmont in 2012? But the bottom line is that Self could have, and should have, embraced the perimeter game and should have embraced his shooters. Create looks as part of your normal offense. The key is being balanced, and shading your offense to your strengths. Folks argued against too much reliance on the three. But we ended up being too reliant on the drive. This made things easy on opposing coaches. The fact is, Self simply did not want to do that. And logic had nothing to do with it. Nothing.
-
NCAA Reality, Just For Fun: Here is reality on three point attempts - In 2014, Wisconsin made the Final Four shooting 21 three pointers per game during the tourney. Florida shot 16 per game during the tourney, also getting to the Final Four. And, of course, UConn shot 19 threes per game during the tourney, on its way to winning the national title. During the season, Wisconsin shot 20.7 threes per game and UConn shot 18.52 threes per game. Florida shot 17.74. In 2013, Michigan shot 21 per game in the tourney on its way to beating KU and getting to the title game. Michigan shot 19.71 per game for the season. Wichita St. shot 20 per game on the way to the Final Four during the tourney, and 19.61 per game that season. Syracuse, who also made the Final Four (whose threes were down a bit in the tourney), shot 17.42 per game for the season. Louisville shot 15 per game during the tourney, significantly higher than our rate in our bad ball stretch. They also shot 17.27 per game during the season.
-
Three Point Reality: The reality is that there are multiple ways to skin a cat. Three point shooting is not a panacea. There is no perfect answer. UK has the horses, they are pounding it inside .. scoring at a miraculous 69.3% at the rim. But they shoot just as many threes as Kansas does (and we score at about 55% -- er, scored). Villanova shot a bunch of threes and got eliminated. Virginia shot very few this season and got eliminated. Again, there is no perfect answer. But I do know that having a disdain for the three pointer limits your possibilities, and thus limits the possibilities for your team. You are closing off a portion of the game that can be exploited, particularly when your team can't play the way you want it to play. This was the reality of the 2014-15 Kansas Jayhawks.
-
Kansas Offense Vs. WSU: Eleven possessions into the first half, Self dabbled with a four out/one in scheme, and used that scheme much of the second half. However, our four out/one in scheme was really no offense at all. The four out/one in scheme was little more than the weave. Compare to WSU's four out/one in. Our guys would stand around and drive to the hoop. Occasional outside shots. There was nothing within the scheme to get open shots, was there? What we saw was a scheme that did not put players in positions to get open shots. They literally had to create their own looks. If you have any doubt, go back and watch the second half. Here is the key question to ask yourself, "what did coach Self do to put our players in a position to succeed offensively?" Our offense was little more than playground ball -- hand off, look for a lane to drive. The offense we ran was a flat out joke. It's something that can work in bursts. And it has worked at times this season. But the problem is that opposing coaches see the simplicity, and have prepared for it. Wichita St. likely plagiarized the ISU defense. It is the best tool in sports -- note to Self, you can plagiarize. Anyway, WSU did what ISU did against our weave. They simple contracted and shut off driving lanes. One trick pony. Easy. Their defense dominated us. We were live and die by the drive, right? And Self did nothing to enhance the four out/one in look -- nothing. This was a complete failure. It was as if we spent no practice time trying to improve that limited offense and WSU embarrassed us. We looked like a 6th grade rec team out there offensively. Again, simply embarrassing.
-
Scheming To Create Success: I've mentioned this numerous times. This is a coach's job. Scheme to create success. And in this manner, coach Self has wildly failed on the offensive end. Where does this come from? I go back to Self's quote after the UK game. I felt that it was very telling. Self said, "This game plan crap that everybody talks about; this isn’t football. We play to our strengths, and you don’t just change offenses because the other team is tall." This is at the very heart of Self weakness, his failing. Self doesn't change, he won't change. And we saw it all in vivid HD this season. Self's view of his teams "strengths" is warped. What he meant to say instead of strengths was, "We play the way we play ..." And this is it. We play the way Self wants to play, not the way that capitalizes on his players' strengths.
-
Scheming to Success II: Ok then, what do I mean here? It means to put your team in the best position to be successful. It's a coach's main job. Create conditions where the players you have at hand can succeed. This is again, where the rubber meets the road. There is a wide, diverse, and deep basketball world out there. Bill Self's offensive world is very thin and limited. We saw WSU on Sunday ... a team whose coach schemed directly to take advantage of their strengths. And pay close attention here -- that team is a lot like ours. Very much like ours. Strong perimeter players, not a dominating post presence. Did you see what WSU did? During this season, I've tried to explain this, I've tried to map out examples, I've tried to reference game sequence. Just re-watch WSU vs. Kansas. Res ipsa loquitur -- the facts speak for themselves. That is the exact offense that this team should have been running this season. But our coach failed us. Coach Self refused to scheme to success. I would say that he failed to recognize this before the season, but I don't know. I think it caught him off guard, how futile we were inside. But here's what I do know -- I (we) recognized this very early on. Bill Self could have easily incorporated elements of WSU's offense into our high/low -- elements to scheme to our strengths. Personally, I think he could have flat switched offenses. But short of that, the tweaks and adjustments would have been easy, if Self was committed to doing so. There are other examples of offenses that are dynamic, that would fit our personnel. Gonzaga is another one. Many, many in the basketball universe.
-
WSU Offense: I mentioned this above -- did WSU look like a live/die by the three team? Guys, that phrase is silly .. unless you're VMI. And I ain't talking VMI. We're talking basketball. WSU is not a live/die by the three team. Of course not. They only shot 20 and beat us by 16 points. They scored in a lot of different ways. It was a decisive ass kicking. The three point shot was a large part of their offense, but just a part of a balanced attack. Their offense took a team that was less talented, and put them in position to beat a more talented team by 16. That's coaching. Are there any converts here? Are there any of you that didn't believe early, but now believe in this alternative offensive theory? Wichita St. attacked. WSU used the pick and roll. WSU pushed the action with ball screens. WSU created open looks for its three point shooters. And with a small lineup, WSU was able to get looks inside. WSU inverted. WSU did not play tentative on offense. See, the difference is that WSU's offense was an actual offense. It was a motion offense with multiple options, multiple angles, and multiple goals. Compare that to what you saw from Kansas Sunday. It is literally night and day.
-
High/Low: Of course, Self's real offense is the high/low. That's what we've always run. We couldn't even utilize an effective high/low attack against a midget lineup? We could not get our post players any easy looks inside against undersized opponents? The high/low, though, is a terrific offense. So what went wrong? It's quite simple. We didn't have the personnel to do what coach Self wanted done within his offense. We haven't been able to do that all season. And the simple fact of the matter is that Self's refusal to adjust his scheme, in recognition of this unassailable fact -- an obvious fact that so many saw well before Christmas -- destroyed this season. Self was slow to react. When he did react, he made the wrong decision. And that lies solely on Coach Self's doorstep.
Unfortunately, we had this little Red Pill, Blue Pill discussion last season, at about this time. Just for fun, give it another read and then ask yourself, "what has changed?" Certainly not our NCAA resume.