@joeloveshawks I guess I'm not hearing anyone saying that we should NOT sign him. It is questioning the value of the signing and whether it was just to get a body in the fold.
The numbers (usually) don't lie. A few seasons ago, a poster (I forget who now) did a nice analysis over five years of low and unranked players that exceeded their ranking. It came in just below 15%. There were a few borderline guys, but roughly correct.
Mitch Lightfoot is ranked, at present, as follows: Lightfoot is #117 at Rivals, #99 at ESPN, and #132 at 24/7.
And this goes to @DoubleDD's post -- his post was made with his heart. Respectfully, it did not appear that it was done with his head -- meaning it was passionate, it was about feelings -- about a kid chasing his dreams. That's cool. I get that. It is a nice story.
However, like @DoubleDD, I want KU to win national championships. That's the bottom line. That is how I evaluate every signing … will this guy help us get to that goal?
When I look at Lightfoot, I see a relatively slow, skinny kid who isn't a ball handler type. A guy that if he plays in the post, will be annihilated in the Big 12. A guy that doesn't appear to have much as far as post moves. And a guy whose shot from three point range is a slow trigger.
What I see is a project. He is not a guy that will likely help us win a national championship any time soon. And a marginal chance to do so later.
Right now, I don't see that he helps us get to that goal. A guy like Bragg or Bolden, you can see that immediately.
As Eric Bossi said Lightfoot is a kid whose "real value" will be as a "junior and senior."
Guys like Lightfoot, like Traylor and Lucas, can become roster cloggers. They may not deter another signee now, but possibly later when they have experience, and when they have coach that favors experience. That #40 ranked player that wants to play now may be deterred by Lightfoot, who as junior, is getting better.
@DoubleDD mentioned Lightfoot in comparison to OADs -- meaning, isn't this what we want?
I would say "kind of."
I want highly talented guys that aren't OADs. Highly talented non-OADs usually means #15 - #60. It rarely means #100 or above. Historically, #15 - #60ish are the core type of guys that will put us in the position to win a national title. But it isn't of course possible to fill your roster solely with these guys.
That's where a guy like Lightfoot comes in.
The one thing I like about the Lightfoot signing that is in contrast to some other low/non-ranked signings is that Self is signing him early, and not as a late, roster filling signing. I doubt Self takes him at this stage of the game if he thinks he's a long-shot to be a quality rotation level player.
Let's see where he sits after his senior season. Kids mature, get bigger, grow, etc. @Crimsonorblue22 mentioned a Kevin Young comparison -- that would be quite nice. I'll take that right now.
The reality is that this signing will be judged in 2018-19 most likely, and by the ultimate composition of our current class.