Well, not exactly iced it, but if conference round robbins were sensitively dependent on initial conditions, and they probably are because they are characterized by some chaos and emergent complexity, then KU stealing an away win against the Sooners, means KU is likely to sweep the Sooners back in Larrytown. In turn, this means that KU can play for splits with Baylor, OSU, and ISU and likely as not seal at least a share of the title; this assumes that chaos and complexity in a distribution of talent favoring KU, will work over the long haul of a round robbin to trigger all but one of Baylor, OSU, and ISU into splits with each other too, leaving KU, and perhaps one other of the four dominant teams, with the only sweeps of one of the four dominant teams in the conference.
Thus, KU established the initial conditions required for a share of a title. :-)
Next comes the part where I get egg on my face and JNewell gets bragging rights.
JNew expectation: KU by five and a high scoring game.
Outcome: KU by 7 and a high scoring game.
The man deserves big time quantitative strokes.
I on the other hand deserve ridicule and scorn.
I predicted KU by 15 and OU being held to the high 60s. Their ends the reign of my reliable forecasting and so I humbly pass the torch to the new King Quant. But don't tell him I said so. :-)
As a further note of self humiliation, I wrote that Wiggins would have a monster game tonight. Boy, was I ever completely off on that one. Wiggins was a primer on ineffectiveness.
My run down:
Selden: Wayne had a break out, funk ending game and strangely did not look very good doing it. Weirdest combination I have seen in a while. I saw Selden take and miss a trey in the first half with such awful mechanics that I guess I became a prisoner of that experience and saw him through a negative lens, despite in fact an exemplary game on his part. The numbers don't lie about him: 50% from trey and about the same from the floor. Whew! Hot. Also only two TOs. Hooray for Wayne. Fortunately I have not been beating the drums for Wayne to be pushed onto the pine. Those that have been seeking pine time for Selden need to go to confession and be absolved. :-)
Ellis: Oh, my god is this getting predictable, or what? Put Perry on a 6-7 guy with a 6-7 partner, and Perry will hang 22/11 every time. Perry is a monster against small bigs. If only everyone started 6-7 bigs. Still, the important thing about Perry was he was out there hustling from the start.
Wiggins: Wow! Did Lebron ever have this many unimpressive games in a row? Jordan? Even Dominique Wilkins? I will stop there. Fouled up. Mrs. Wiggins, please talk to your son. An OAD year is a terrible thing to waste.
Tharpe: Tharpe does not look like a tough nut, but he is one on the inside at least. He fell about as low as a point guard could fall against SDSU that first half. Everything that could go wrong did go wrong and then some things that could not go wrong went wrong, too. He sucked more than a pleicostomas on aquarium glass; then tonight vs. OU he was a picture of offensive efficiency. His defense was typically spotty. But Congratulations! Nothing runs like a Naadir.
Embiid: he wasn't very productive after several good performances. He's a freshman, so what else is new. Foul troubles? Check. TOs? Check. 1 lousy block against a bunch of guys short enough to have trouble touching the top of his head? Check. But the big guy was efficient offensively and and got six caroms on an off night, so, Bill, keep building around him.
Traylor: too many TOs.
Frankamp: got in and did something good at point. Made a trey, something about as rare among our perimeter backups as a visit by Haley's Comet. Congratulations Conner. Note: Self started him at point the second half for reasons as inexplicable as why basketball is not the most popular game on the planet already.
Mason: Frank was caught in the 2s: 2 TOs, 2 PFs, and 2 points. Frank seems to struggle against lesser guards. Self seems to be learning the counter intuitive lesson and only plays him a lot against good guards. Just more weirdness on KU's weirdest team ever (you read that here first).
Black: Tarick proved that he simply should not suit up when the other team starts a front line of 6-7. There is something about holding towering advantage over someone that paralyses Tarick.
Greene: 1 assist and 1 foul and lots of goose eggs in five minutes. Let's just say that for whatever reason, Brannen Greene is not burning up the nets yet.
Wesley: Justin got a look to keep Landen Lucas from getting the big head, I guess?
White: Self let White know in no uncertain terms that his four minutes the last game were nothing to write home about.
Lucas: Landen was, shall we say, given a night off to avoid him pulling a muscle chasing dwarves.
Take Away 1: KU got a win by resorting to its early successful formula: generally lousy defense, letting one guy run wild, mild disruption, letting greater height win the rebounding battle with a plus ten (and without blocking out, too), getting fewer strips, and generally making a 50% shooting night a close game.
Take Away 2: KU did not improve tonight; they just shot well and got more rebounds by being taller.
Take Away 3: This team is becoming defined by its ability to find infinitely varied ways to keep games close. It wins close. It loses close. It keeps otherwise terrible drubbings close. It takes its own hot shooting nights and find ways to keep it close. This team will do whatever it takes to keep a game close. It will shoot as poorly and rebound as little as it has to against SDSU, but then ramp up its disruption stat to get a close loss. It will catch fire shooting and then play piss poor defense to win close. There is almost nothing this team will not do to keep a game close.
Note to Cin: This process is not nearly as enjoyable as Bill suggested it could be. :-)
P.S.: They stole a win on the road. By definition that is a great accomplishment despite not getting better. Put another way, perhaps they have found a way to win without getting better.
P.P.S.: Maybe Self has finally even turned the idea of getting better upside down. He seems to have developed a team that can keep finding ways to win as it gets worse.
P.P.P.S.: Seriously, even on just a normally warm shooting night, KU would have lost this game. On the other hand, they would almost certainly have found a way to keep it a close loss. They might have played better FT defense, or what have you.
P.P.P.P.S: I am not sure how KU can win without pressure defense and disruption and with an underachieving facsimile of Kenny Gregory rather than the next Lebron, but let's face facts here--KU is 10-4 and 1-0 in the conference. Bill Self seems to have found a way to win with a team that does absolutely nothing well on a consistent basis, but be inconsistent. In fact, this may become Self's most extraordinary coaching accomplishment yet. Now Bill is so good that he can find a way to win playing consistently inconsistent, dare I say, badly om infinitely varying ways. We are yet again through the basketball looking glass here with Bill Self. I doubted he could do it again to me after ten years. He is a remarkable man; that much is for certain.
Rock Chalk!
