🏀 KuBuckets Archive

Every summer and fall I find this to be a fascinating site to monitor tropical storms coming across the Atlantic.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2 ↗

I've got a cousin in Corpus Christy right in the bulls eye. My wife is still in Baton Rouge selling our house. Praying for safety for all in harms way.

@wissox Looks like Harv may be going a little west of where they thought before. But it is apparently planning on a few days near the coast. BR will likely get lots of rain, but hopefully spread out (miserable as that is). Hope she and your cuz are okay!

@mayjay After 30 inches of rain at our house last August we can handle whatever Harvey throws at us!

@wissox Just hop on your raft and you will be back in BR in no time, Huck!

Thinking about you guys in Texas and hoping for the best.

@Texas-Hawk-10 You ok? Was thinking you were in the Houston area.

@wissox So far so good. We'll see what Harvey does, but current projections look a lot better than yesterday. Right now, tornadoes around the Houston area have been the biggest issue with Harvey. There's been some flooding in the southern and western parts of the city, but not as bad as predicted so far.

I'm still good, still have power, still have water and I don't expect any flooding where I'm at because my apartment is elevated and there's really good drainage on my street.

That said, flooding got really bad overnight all over Houston. Most of the highways are underwater now and a lot of creeks and rivers are already over their banks. It's only going to get worse over the next few days as it's being predicted that we're going to get another 24" at least on top of the 12-24" most places got overnight. All the school districts are closed for the week and I don't know what kind of shape my school will be in because it's a flood prone area with a creek about 200 yards away.

It's really bad now and it's only going to get worse here in Houston over the next few days.

@Texas-Hawk-10 do you know how much rain you have had? My brothers still ok too.

@Crimsonorblue22 When I checked this morning, I was at 14.5" Where I'm at, now we're at about 18" inches with another 18-24" predicted in the next few days. There's parts of Houston that are already over 30" from what I've seen.

It's really bad in the city right now and it going to get worse in the next few days.

@Texas-Hawk-10 You still above water?

@mayjay I'm not going to flood, my apartment building is elevated enough that flooding won't be an issue unless it's a Noah type flood. The drainage around the complex is really good too so any high water drains quickly whenever there's a break in the rain.

@Texas-Hawk-10 Sounds like you are lucky. What about work, and getting around? Family? What a mess!

@mayjay I'm a teacher and all schools in the area have been cancelled this week as far as I know (some of the ones further to the NE might not be) so I'm off work until Tuesday. My mom is the only family I have in the area and she's actually having to work because she's one of the few people at her company who can make it in (she lives about 5 minutes from her office). I'm letting her use my car right now since I have an SUV that's higher off the ground than her car just in case. I know all the usual roads and neighborhoods that flood are flooded right now, but beyond that, I'm not sure of any flooding that's not normal. I'm going to spending a lot of quality time with my PS4 this week since nothing's open and I don't know how long it'll be until stuff starts opening again.

Glad to hear everyone is still okay. Sounds like more rain is on the way though, so stay cautious and safe.

My kids and grandkids are all riding it out. Some damage to the roof is about all the damage they've gotten so far. No flooding. My best friend's daughter got 5 feet of water in her first floor apartment. She is currently living in a hotel.

@Texas-Hawk-10 My company's HQ is on Allen parkway, and the pics we got are unreal (I am in KC). The building complex is now in the middle of a lake. At least 5 feet of water in the ground floor. Could be a long time before we are operational from that site. Glad you are on higher ground.

Here's a little insight from my blog on our 'little' flood of 25-30 inches last year in Baton Rouge. https://citeachery.wordpress.com/2016/09/02/floods/ ↗

Nice graphic showing distribution of cumulative rainfall in southeast Texas. From NYT. (Ignore the "Heaviest rainfall" caption--that didn't capture.)

!0_1504022227009_2017-08-29 11.53.22.png ↗

@wissox Great work. What a nightmare.

And to think Houston's metro area has 7 times the population, and almost 100 times the geographic size. The logistics of this flood are overwhelming.

news keeps calling it the fourth largest city but I think it passed up Chicago for 3rd place in the last couple of years. Chitown is losing residents fast.

@wissox Houston isn't bigger than Chicago yet, but should happen in the next few years.

Edit: the total rain volume of 16 trillion gals cited previously (from various news reports) must be high by a factor of as much as 16. Or maybe it represents all the entire storm dropped including over water.
Consider:
10,000 sq miles is what wikipedia says is the metro area, and I unthinkingly used that number, but on further reflection that is crazy. It would require an area 250 miles x40 miles. Even the LA Metro area isn't that big. Houston is 637 sq miles. Use that. Thx, wikipedia.

Each sq mi is 640 acres. 1 acre foot is the volume required to cover an acre of ground to a depth of 1 foot. So, 640 acre feet to do so in one sq mile. Each acre foot has some 325,000 gal of water. Assume it has rained an average of 36" or 3 ft in the Houston area. Some, more, some less. Average.

325,000 gal x 640 acrefeet x 637 sq mi x 3 feet = @488 billion gal of water.

The mayor said 1 trillion today. That might be true if you include the surrounding area.

Sorry for the misleading info.

Crazy, I believe Houston is the 4th most populous city in the country. Continued prayers to Texas and Louisiana.

See my edit of the total rain volume for a massive correction.

Here is the NHC's latest graphic. TS Irma is getting ready to cross the Atlantic and will be a hurricane in a few days. Arrival in Caribbean in about 8 to 10 days.

!0_1504105805907_145752_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png ↗

This is the kind of storm that if it develops a couple hundred miles north, often curves off to the north. But when it stays south, it gets into the warm water, picks up steam, and can blast the Antilles, Bahamas, and the SE. I remember Hanna and Ike in 2008. Hopefully, it turns north. (Wait for 2008 track image to load.)

!0_1504105998207_hursum08.gif ↗

A path like Ike took would be devastating.

@Kcmatt7 Irma is now a Cat 2 hurricane, soon to be 3. The path looks generally like Ike so far, but it has developed faster and stronger further out, and the projected path is further south. I fear it could go south of the V Islands, hit Jamaica and then Yucatan, before fish hooking back up through the Gulf into Tx or La or Miss. Or it could turn NW and track Ike. If it was looking to go more north this far out, it could duplicate Matthew last year.

Whatever direction it goes, unless it veers north soon, I fear a really big one.

!0_1504193795285_145426_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png ↗

@mayjay None of the computer models currently have Irma reaching the Gulf of Mexico.

!alt text ↗

This is the latest model for today for Irma's path which is nothing like Ike's path. Ike formed at about 40W and 17N while Irma is already a Cat. 2 is approximately at 33W and 17N. Irma is currently several hundred miles further east than Ike started at.

@Texas-Hawk-10 Yeah most of the models now show a northern veer. (Not the one in red, which has it much slower.) I saw a couple of analyses that question what would take Ike over the steering ridge. It is too far away for the models to be very predictive, but north is good.

I was referring to Ike's path when it first was growing into a tropical depression in about the same place Irma did (before either reached named status), between Africa and the islands.

Back then my wife and I were eagerly looking forward to our first timeshare vacation in the Bahamas. Our week was Labor Day week, and we had convinced friends to go with us. I started looking at the NHC maps several weeks before and saw the clouds growing off Africa about 3 weeks before our trip. As it grew, I kept calculating its potential arrival dates because we had about 4 grand riding on this, plus our friends had taken unpaid leave that couldn't be rescheduled or cancelled.

When Ike became a hurricane, Hanna was wandering around north of PR. We were more worried about Ike, but it suddenly went more south. Hanna then aimed straight at Nassau (77.5 W, 25 N) a couple days before our flights.

I called the resort, which said they were cancelling all reservations due to Hanna and some lingering uncertainty about Ike. They let us put our timeshare into the bank.

We ended up driving to Gatlinburg, Tenn, to stay at a friend's condo for the week. Mountains rather than ocean.

Hanna did a loop south and then went north, and missed Nassau by 100 miles or so. The airline would not refund $ since the airport was open, and gave us a credit minus $200 each. But the credit was only good for a year from our initial purchase (December 2007), so we had 3 months but no vacation time to use those tickets. So, they expired for all 4 of us.

I am a tad paranoid about Aug/Sept tropical weather since then. Trading to Hawaii this year took the stress level down a long ways!

@Texas-Hawk-10 Models still in disarray. Here is a discussion from CNN of the considerations going into the two paths. The NHC discussion of its forecast has been favoring the southern track from the European model because different simulations on it consistently are giving a similar result, while the other models showing a northern track are all over the map.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/31/us/hurricane-irma-forecast-weather/index.html ↗ (you can see accompanying graphics on the site)

There is considerable confidence that Hurricane Irma will track to the west through the weekend and then take a slight jog to the southwest early next week in response "to a building ridge (of high pressure) over the central Atlantic."

From there, the forecast becomes a lot less clear, with some major differences among some of the key models meteorologists use to forecast hurricanes. The differences are so drastic that one prediction has Irma sliding harmlessly back out to sea, while in another, it makes multiple disastrous landfalls in the Caribbean and likely hits the United States after that.

Dueling prediction models

The European model, or ECMWF, and the American GFS model have had some notable showdowns before, most notably with Hurricane Sandy.

Hurricane Sandy Fast Facts

With Sandy, the ECMWF correctly predicted a landfall in the Northeast nearly a week ahead, while the GFS continually kept the storm offshore in what became a major black eye for the US weather-modeling industry. There have been other examples in which the GFS model has outperformed its European counterpart, such as with a few major snowstorms in the Northeast.

Right now, the GFS has Irma taking a more northerly track that curves to the north before it reaches the Caribbean, thus making a US landfall much less likely.

The European model keeps the storm tracking further west and into the Caribbean by the middle of next week.
"The ECMWF sees a much stronger ridge or Bermuda High (than the GFS) which forces Irma west, whereas the GFS has a weaker ridge and a more rightward, parabolic track," said Ryan Maue, a meteorologist with WeatherBell Analytics.

European vs American weather models

"The prospects for major impacts anywhere from Cuba to Carolinas is concerning for this very reliable model," Maue said.

Irma is still more than 1,700 miles east of the Leeward Islands, and any impacts from the storm wouldn't be felt until Tuesday or Wednesday for the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico.
The forecast picture should become clearer after the weekend.

For all you hurricane trackers, Irma is still unpredictable but it seems to be heading straight for the Bahamas. The following graphic is called "spaghetti modeling" and shows lots of different tracks using each of several meteorological computer models run a number of times with slightly different assumptions of changes in conditions.

!0_1504454216023_blog-31.png ↗

Monday morning run of computer models. Irma now projected to go more south, probably along the northern edge of Hispaniola and Cuba, then turn north. Straight up Florida is a possibility, but it could go toward the gulf. Doesn't seem real likely it hits LA or TX on the projections, but if a high in the southern US develops, it will keep moving further west.

!0_1504527813157_storm_11 (1).gif ↗

Irma is now Category 5 hurricane. Looks like it skirts Dom Rep and Cuba and goes into the southeastern Gulf if it stays in the middle of 5-day forecast zone. They predict it will reduce in intensity in a couple days to a 4 but then could pick up again. Still no prediction by Nat H Center when it will turn north. PR, St Maarten, St Thomas, and other NE Antilles islands gonna get hit today and tomorrow.!0_1504613518940_090514_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png ↗

Edit: Spaghetti models almost all go straight up Florida. State of energency declared for entire state. But so far, the spaghetti models have all been premature on when they think Irma will turn. Whatever happens, we could get a bunch of rain here in the SE if it fishhooks eventuallym

In addition, the latest satellite images look like Africa is shooting spitballs at us. Not all those clouds will develop, but this is impressive.!0_1504613657780_two_atl_2d0 (1).png ↗

From the 11 a.m EDT discussion of Irma by the National Hurricane Center:

"This [current intensity] makes Irma the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic
basin outside of the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico in the NHC
records."

The US doesn't have the disaster resources to deal with a massive hurricane hitting south Florida while still dealing with everything that Harvey did. This could be a large scale national crisis as far as recovery funds and resources. It would be a huge relief if this thing turns north and stays out to sea, not just for the safety of everyone in the Caribbean and Florida, but also to make sure the resources that are currently being focused on helping the folks in SE Texas aren't spread thin due to another storm this soon.

@justanotherfan Going to have to be a lot of people helping people. I may go help clean up one of the sites. I get 3 community service days free for work, so I may leave this weekend to go.

Does anyone know of organizations you can contact to volunteer with?

@Kcmatt7 Good for you! I checked the Am Red Cross. They want a 10 day commitment for Houston because they have to train everybody they use. I am not sure about prepping elsewhere.

There are many groups that are associated with churches. Here is a site that contains a list of links: http://www.disastercenter.com/agency.htm ↗
Note: Samaritans Purse volunteers were the second flood--a good one--into my friend's neighborhood after their houses all got water up to the roofline in Oct 2015. Hundreds arrived and helped strip drywall, pile trash, recovered salvagable items, distributed food to workers, and gave all types of support. The link for them in that list above didn't work. Here it is: https://www.samaritanspurse.org ↗

After having my gut wrenched watching Harvey plow into Houston, now my gut is wrenched again watching the computer models with Irma. It is going to really smack us hard on the west coast of Florida.

The last thing Puerto Rico needs is Irma. Rough.

@KUSTEVE It is at least starting to look like the FL left coast has a chance to be okay if Irma continues to follow recent tracks further off the east coast.

That said, it is also now pointing straight at us here in South Carolina. Ironically, my sis-in-law is bringing her 90 year old dad to our house from Ft Lauderdale.

The Keys are being evacuated, so that's a sign of how dangerous this thing is. If you're in the path, bunker down or get to safety. It's already killed 10 or more people in the Caribbean. It should lose some steam before getting to Florida, but it's still going to pack quite a punch. Be safe everyone.

Our water system here in Columbia went down for almost 2 weeks 2 yrs ago. Irma may get here Monday as a TropStorm or less, but Sam's Clubs and Walmart are already out of water. People here are very leery after Oct 2015!

Sis-in-law and her Dad turned left at Jacksonville and decided to drive to her home in Chicago instead of here. So, just us and Irma. I will be testing the generator, the chain saw, and roof integrity later today. Neighbor has not taken down two leaning trees near our house....

@KUSTEVE

As the 79F water needed for the care and feeding of hurricanes, even without weather engineering, is reputedly unusually deep at this time (around 250 feet of the top of the ocean around Carribean to Florida), gotta recommend evacuation...if not too late. 250 feet of water is a lot for a hurricane to blow off upwell some water cool enough to sap Irma. Exit stage north and west. Its times like these that the affluent with private airplanes have a HUGE advantage. Maybe we all better get our flying licenses and at least some kind of little Cessna.

@mayjay No water, bread, batteries anywhere here. Going to Walmart tonight to hopefully snag some batteries.

@KUSTEVE can you evacuate?

@Crimsonorblue22 The traffic is bottled up for miles and miles. The problem with evacuating is you get stuck on the highway, and you run out of gas. And there is no gas to find. I have a mountain of food and water, and I'm going to ride it out.

@KUSTEVE Good luck! If you get short on water, Irma might bring some you can collect in plastic bins before the wind gets bad. Ziplock bags can be frozen now (not filled completely; leave some air) for later use in coolers if your power goes out. Run water into any bottles you have, fill plastic trash bins with water to use for your toilets, and make sure your freezer is completely packed to keep things frozen.

Good luck!

@mayjay fill bath tub!

@Crimsonorblue22 Tub, too! Where ya been?

@KUSTEVE @mayjay Ya'll be careful. Not sure where you are Steve but we're praying for a lot of people. My heart goes out to the poor peoples of the Caribbean that get battered by these things and many hundreds or even thousands of people die but we barely notice that here in the US.

@wissox 5 a.m. forecast (EDT) from NHC has us out of the "cone" where the center is likely to go. If it holds, we will still get a few inches rain and wind but only 45 mph or so.

The cone now has Irma going up near Atlanta as a TStorm on its way to Nashville. Straight into Fla as a major hurricane, though, and up into Orlando as a Cat 1 or 2. Hope Southern Floridians have hunkered down!!0_1504866000648_093751_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png ↗

@wissox I am 3 blocks away from the water, but there is about a 20 foot retention wall, and a incline the water would have to go up in order to be a factor to me. Now, the other sides of the bay are in deep trouble, as there is no wall what so ever. So, it will probably flood the people on the lower end. We're talking some really high dollar homes probably regretting that beautiful view about now.

Found batteries last night. Got my water on Wednesday, and found gas really early yesterday morning. I think it is mandatory that all Hurricane nuts must purchase at least 1 6-pack of beer, so the tee totaler is going to break down, and buy some suds.

I am so glad my dad does not live in Sarasota anymore. We do have lots of friends in that area though and praying for all the people in that area that will be affected.

It is POURING outside. This storm wasn't supposed to hit here until very early Monday morning. It is quite a gully washer outside.

@KUSTEVE

I AM NO EXPERT, and its probably too late, but...

I think most persons hoard the wrong things and try to carry too much.

Get a big back pack (70L and up), or water proof duffel bag with shoulder sling. Olive green or coyote brown. NOT CAMO. Get reversible rain cover for it. Orange one side, camo on the other. Use orange side to signal to search parties with. Use camo side at night to help conceal the bag in shadows. Stow rain cover day time to keep pack inconspicuous. When asleep, use the bungee cord off a boogie board, or surfboard and tie the back pack to your wrist. Fill it with:

-2 water filtration systems (like back packers use, one for back up);

-2 single propane burners and bottles (one burner for back up, and as many bottles as the
back pack will hold with the following gear);

-2 STRIKE/SPARK fire starters

-imodium (one bottle for each person);

-antibiotics (however much you can scrounge up);

-power bars (3 bars per day/person x 7 days);

-beef jerky (2 bags per day/person x 7 days)

-fixed blade camping knife;

-4 nested camping cups;

-2 nested pans for boiling water (one a back up);

-1 pair walkie talkies (radio shack sells some super good ones for under a hundred, 2 pair is better. one pair for back up. Both pairs batteried.)

-1 little weather resistant NOAA weather radio in a zip lock bag.

-1 hatchet (preferably single forged piece);

-1 waterproof tactical flash light for you and 1 for each member of your party;

-1 mosquito net for each person;

-1 light cheap back pack for each person other than you;

-1 light sleeping bag with a water proof divvy bag for you and 1 for redundancy if you have more in your group (1 1-person bag for each two persons; sleep in shifts, SOMEONE HAS TO WATCH THE BACKPACK)

-1 life jacket for you,

-1 life jacket for your back pack;

-1 life jacket for each loved one.

-1 BRIGHTLY COLORED HAT FOR EACH PERSON

-batteries (ideally a folding solar battery charger for a place like Florida) all kept 2 batteries taped together per 1 zip lock bag, as many zip locked bags as needed)

-a roll of trash bags;

-poncho, or rain gear, for each person;

-100 feet of 750 paracord (with fishing bubbles clipped to it every 10 feet or so), or else just water ski rope (note: the rope is for staying connected while walking in water, or for lowering persons up or down. hold the rope, don't tie it to people, except for raising and lowering. note also: the 750 paracord is tough to find, but 550 is not strong enough for raising , or lowering much.).

Keep everything in THE big back pack, or lashed to the big back pack and it stays in your reach all the time. DISTRIBUTE AND USE ITEMS AS NEEDED. The back pack and its contents are Noah's ark.

If you have to abandon house, divide the propane bottles equally among all members of your group's back packs. You carry one burner, the next most physically fit and mentally robust carries the other burner. Divide the strike/sparks between you two also. Divide the walkie talkies between you two also.

Assuming you have tons of can goods hoarded already and bottled water hoarded already.

BUT DON'T RELY SOLEY ON THE BOTTLED WATER. IT CAN GET SWEPT AWAY. IT CAN GET BURIED UNDER FALLEN STRUCTURES. IT CAN GET STOLEN. GET A BACK PACKER'S FILTRATION SYSTEM AND A PROPANE BURNER AND KEEP THEM EITHER HIDDEN, OR IN YOUR PACK ON YOUR PERSON. TURN THE FLOOD WATER INTO YOUR LIFE SUPPORT SYSTEM. WITH THESE ITEMS, AND WITH THE LIFE JACKETS, AND IMODIUM, YOU CAN SURVIVE ON THE MOVE AGAINST THE MOST DAUNTING ODDS, IF NECESSARY.

BOTTOM LINE: YOU ARE IN A ONE WEEK SURVIVAL GAME. MAYBE TWO. THE GAME IS CALLED "KEEP HYDRATED AND WITH ENOUGH CALORIES TO LAST TILL SERVICES RESUME, OR HELP COMES," EVEN IF YOUR HOME GETS WASHED AWAY. YOU DO THIS BY FILTERING AND BOILING DRINKING WATER, AND BY FIGHTING OFF DIARRHEA, AND KEEPING YOUR MOUTH ABOVE WATER. ALMOST ANYTHING ELSE YOU CAN SURVIVE, AND CREATE A WORK AROUND FOR.

GOOD LUCK AND ROCK CHALK!

Thoughts and prayers at ya!

@jaybate-1.0 That was a masterpiece.

@KUSTEVE

Follow your gut. I'm not a survival expert. But I have been reading some suggestions about bug-out bags, because of all of the natural disasters and nuclear threatening going on, and I thought I at least could share some of the thoughts they have triggered in me, regarding these two hurricane driven flooding crises some of us Americans have been bearing the brunt of. When I was a boy, before the Army Corps of Engineers had built one of its dams in the valley up river from my dad's home town, I saw impressive flooding in his home town about ever 3rd or 4th year, if memory serves me. And my dad got caught in the west bottoms of Kansas City (the stock yards area) during the 1951 flood. I remember being scared by that high and rising water in that small town, even though we made it away from it. I remember my dad's photographs of boarding a fishing boat from the second story window of his office building in the West Bottoms and seeing the silted streets when the water receded. I have been caught in two wild fires. The floods were a bit scarier, but its all dicey. I have considerable empathy for your situation, but I have never been caught in a hurricane, especially one of the largest ones on record, ever. My Dad was a Marine that survived three island invasion in WWII. He treated natural disasters like war. He said you've got to go in with a plan, be prepared for the plan to be disrupted, and then be ready to improvise with what you brought with you. Keep your head. Define the job and keep trying to do it no matter what. Find a way. Just keep focusing on finding a way. Say your prayers. And keep carrying on no matter what. If you get scared, shake it off and focus on the job. Its gotten me through two wild fires on my own and one flood with him. You get scared sometimes, but you fight through it doing your job. Likely things won't go worst case, but know you can handle worst case, because you're going to do your job no matter what. You've just got to prepare, and keep adapting to the situation, as it presents itself. Keep finding a way. Can do. If all ever looks lost, say, "Believe" and look for the door you can't yet see.

@KUSTEVE

And remember: this is all going to be a memory, when Self rolls the balls out October 15th. We put up with all this other shit, so we can cheer them Jayhawks another season!

First beer in months. This is hard core tee totaling. I think I have a buzz.

@KUSTEVE dont jump your wall and go swimming!🐟🌊🌪

@KUSTEVE and et al

Sending following distilled for redundancy. You probably know it all and more...

IRMA FACTS

REPORT TIME: 11AM EDT; SATURDAY; 9/9/2017; NWS NHC ADVISORY 42

REPORT SOURCE: NWS via Palm Beach Post

LOCATION AS OF 11am EST: IRMA 285 MILES SE OF KEY WEST; WEAKENING ALONG CUBA COAST. Eye tracking Cuba coast east to west. Land exposure sapping IRMA down to low 4, high 3 Category.

LOCATION UPDATE: ( 210 miles from Miami latest Post update around 12:00 NOON Saturday; 9/9/2017; seems like some discrepancy between two reports given reputed 9-15 mph track speed)

STORM TRACK TO FLORIDA: IRMA PREDICTED TO SPIKE BACK UP OVER FLORIDA STRAITS AND HIT KEYS THEN FLORIDA WEST COAST WITH 140MPH WINDS: West edge of Bermuda HIGH will steer it north off Cuba coast shortly into Florida Straits, WHERE IT PICKS UP STEAM.

LAND FALL LOCATION: MOST LIKELY TO HIT AND FOLLOW FLORIDA WEST COAST, BUT EVEN SLIGHT PREDICTION ERROR ON TRACK BRINGS IT THROUGH MIAMI.

LAND FALL TIME FLORIDA KEYS: 8 AM SUNDAY 9/10/2017

LAND FALL TIME FLORIDA: 2PM SUNDAY 9/10/2017

STORM TRACK PREDICTION CONFIDENCE: "HIGH"

STORM RISKS: HIGH WINDS, STORM SURGE, TORNADOES

Palm Beach Post has a decent link for quick digest of Irma info with maps and feeds.

http://weatherplus.blog.palmbeachpost.com/2017/09/09/hurricane-irma-skimming-cuba-as-155-mph-hurricane-245-miles-from-miami/ ↗

Uncle Sam's NOAA is solid, too, if PB Post gets disrupted.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone%E2%80%8E ↗

You may catch a break on the worst winds. But stay focused! Some may let their guards down. But not you.

Rock Chalk!

I hope that this storm does not cause much devastation, hoping for everyone's safety.

@jaybate-1.0 @KUSTEVE better stop drinking or he'll be swimming w/the 🐟🐟

@Crimsonorblue22 LOL. Now, that was funny...

Night number 2 ... beer number 2. I've become a raging lush.

@KUSTEVE jethro! Aren't you on the west side?

@Crimsonorblue22 I'm northwest of Tampa. We are smack dab in the middle of it.

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@KUSTEVE I hope you and all folks in the area remain safe

They are saying the winds are 130 mph, yet the highest anywhere is 63 mph, with 1 gust that went up to 94 mph in Key West. No WAY does this storm reach even half the numbers they are throwing around. I would be surprised if the winds in Tampa get over 50 mph. Rainy, nasty, lots of damage... but not nearly as bad as they are saying. I'm real glad I stayed put.

@KUSTEVE nice!

Ok, we finally got some rain. now they're saying it's a tropical storm, so they are walking back the storm of the century talk.

@KUSTEVE Glad it is not as bad as it would have been had it stayed west, but it has been much worse than you seem to think. Gusts upwards of 135 mph and sustained over 95 mph are pretty serious, and gusts upward of 100 mph on the east coast from the morning on show how big the storm is. Still a Category 2. Orlando already has winds up to 70 mph and the center isn't close yet. You might be lucky after all in TB, but that was not foreseeable. The effects of going over land, and an influx of dry air, are not predictable parts of a hurricane.

3 to 4 million without power (incl 80% of Miami-Dade!) indicates it was pretty serious. The only reason more residences haven't been demolished is the strengthening of hurricane-resistant building standards, first 40 years ago, and later after Andrew in the 90s. A huge reason we aren't seeing more injuries and deaths is the effectiveness of the warnings and evacs.

Hope the power stays on for you. The grid will definitely be a mess for awhile!

My cousins are likely to lose house in Venice to storm surge. Friends in ft lauderdale are ok but no power since early am. Tree damage. They are just west of town. Haven't had cell service and water lines have broken.

@Crimsonorblue22 My sister-in-law and her Dad finally finished their 1422 mile 4-day migration to Chicago this evening.

We are supposed to get winds of 30 to 45 tomorrow, along with "torrential rain." Irma literally spreads over 1000 miles from DC to Cuba. Jose is going into a 290 degree loop this week and then points west, but I think it is supposed to veer off north after that. Lord knows the Lesser Antilles do not need another hit after going thru Irma and Jose once already.

Good luck to your friends and cousins. We thought about moving to Venice. Now, no dice. I hope they (friends) have a generator.

@KUSTEVE

Great to hear its just a nice gusty breeze your way!!

I lived on the southwest coast of Oregon a few years and we used to get 50-60mph winds on a clear day!!!

A little gale never hurt anyone.

But 95-135 mph can put a few wrinkles in a forehead.

Hope you keep missing all of it.

Rock Chalk!

Jethro, Jethro, where art thou, Jethro?

@KUSTEVE Hope the beer didn't send you out with the water when the reverse surge drained Tampa Bay! Have you power, sir? And your roof?

@mayjay Power is still out..a few quick moves to the ice chest earned the coveted extension cord from the neighbor's generator. So, ridiculously uncomfotable just went to slighly uncomfortable.

@KUSTEVE Excellent redeployment of assets, young man! We were thrilled with an extension cord from our neighbor back when hit by Isabel in Virginia (2003). Rotated it between coffee pot, frig, freezer, TV, and laptop charger that kept us connected to the internet via modem on a phone line!

Hope you get plugged in soon!

They are saying it will be Sunday night before the power comes on. No ice anywhere...no batteries....my whole neighborhood is like a ghost town. The extension cord from the neighbors is very intermittent, so it is a challenge. No hotel rooms available anywhere.

@KUSTEVE

One thing I forgot to suggest before the storm hit.

Keep $5000 cash in hand just for boat buying immediately afterwards. :-)

You need to start shopping for a boat immediately.

The insurance totaled boats along the inland waterway are the best deals going.

And if the adjusters can't get in yet, then all the better.

Offer cash only.

Be picky though.

Insist on a Contender. :-)

Or a nice single-screw diesel trawler for motoring the Caribbean islands, while the clean up is underway.

Aw, just having a little fun.

I'm sure this situation sucks big time.

@jaybate-1.0 even worse if he was in a nursing home

@KUSTEVE

I have many friends in the Sarasota area where my dad resided before I moved him to Kansas. They were out of power for 48 hours but they have had the power back for while now and things seem to be pretty normal, at least in the parts of the town that are not next to the coast.

Sound like your area was hit pretty hard. Hopefully power return soon so you can all get back to normal...or something close to it...

My sister-in-law left Chicago today with her father to take him back to Ft Lauderdale. His condo has all systems running. They are driving via St L and New Orl, for God alone knows what reason. My brother spent the past 3 days with his F-in-L, and has now gone certifiably nuts.

The families of evacuees: hidden victims of Irma.

good news: they came and picked up the trash. that was fixing to be a BIg issue.

@mayjay

That is crazy, it adds close top 500 miles to the trip and will take them through areas that were affected by Harvey which might require additional detours.

They must really want to go to New Orleans or maybe it is the great barbecue in Saint Louis that Cuonzo Martin just stated is better than Kansas City barbecue.

@JayHawkFanToo That would be nice, to think there is a plan.

No, it is just because they are totally, unbelievably, mindeffingly, diagnostically nuts.

@mayjay my friends are in a hotel.

As of 11:11 am, the power finally came back on. Oh my gosh..

@KUSTEVE

Just in time to watch the game...which might not necessarily be a good thing baseon the first few minutes of the game.😡

@KUSTEVE I was thinking this morning of posting about how I have always gotten power back before they predicted, and that I hoped you would be lucky, too! But I held back to avoid jinxing you.

Hooray for all those thousands of workers who have been working on restoring power all through Florida! BTW, you have a few thousand South Carolinians down there helping. Meanwhile, the quarter million homes out of power here have been tended to by crews from NY, Md, Penn, and Va.

Good lord, this could be another one. Here is the projected track of Potential Tropical Cyclone 15, predicted to become a TS soon and a hurricane later this week.

The track takes it directly through the islands just whacked by Irma. Some of these storms that develop quickly can really surprise. Those poor people need many months to recover, not this!

!0_1505583212356_145528_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png ↗

Meanwhile, TS Lee is further east and on a similar, but (as currently oriented) more northernly, track. It is not predicted to be as exciting and may dissipate instead.

!0_1505583451173_144929_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png ↗

Update: Fifteen is now Tropical Storm Maria. The newest track shows it becoming a hurricane into the Virgin Islands and then a major hurricane when it hits PR on Wednesday. Any hurricane with that trajectory and strength could go on to the Bahamas and Florida or East Coast.

!0_1505595466202_204552_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind (1).png ↗

Update: A number of spaghetti models show Maria spinning off into the Atlantic to the East of the Bahamas. They said that about Irma, too, IIRC.