@nuleafjhawk
Good question. It does seem like many board rats find this a sudden sea change.
But even before Preston went out, I thought fans and media were underestimating how thin we were. When Preston went out, the team rallied a few games as is typical. And that was the team the minor major coach you mentioned saw and praised so highly. That coach was also probably using some coach speak. He wants to schedule elites for the gate receipts to finance his small program. PRAISING AN ELITE ENSURES SCHEDULING MORE ELITES NEXT YEAR. So: that may not have been entirely reliable feedback.
Next, after a short rally from losing Preston, fans were further seduced and probably some denial set in about KUās missing pieces and the inevitable attrition each season brings.
Our starting five is very talented at trifectation and can score, when it is rested, not fouled up, and no one is ānicked upā or sick. Itās already done it.
On a good shooting night, we can blister a minor major and beat many majors and even a green, short handed elite, or two.
But combine shorthandedness with the need to work in effectively new, developing faces like Doke, Vick and Newman (3/5ths of our starting team) and we appear to have a Mylar thin margin for error.
Handling adversity is something every team has to master each season. 3/5ths being newbies makes that more challenging. Having no flexibility to strategize and motivate with substitution makes this team rather easy to scheme against, as opposing coaches accrue more and more film of us to study before games.
There are two obvious ways to beat us: outshoot us and out rebound us on one of our off shooting nights (Husky loss), or run on us for a full 40 minutes with 8 guys (ASU loss). Both these approaches are how KU has beaten so many teams with longer stacks, or a Durant. Now KU is getting a dose of its own medicine.
There is one more obvious way, if you have a good center and some guards that can drive it. Foul up Doke the first 5 minutes, then just keep pounding it down our throats for 35 minutes.
Next, our outside shooting is VERY susceptible to wear and tear. Every piece of new lingerie each game indicates a risk of our trifectation falling beneath the collective 40% 3pt shooting needed to be an winning 4-1 Team that game. Few trifectates are as impervious to joint pain and leg fatigue, as Frank Mason was. This yearās players are not babies. They are ānormal.ā
Also this 4-1 scheme is vulnerable to an ā0āferā by one of our first three options: Devonte, Vick and Svi, because Malik, our fourth, has so far not been the BenMac grade addition this 4-1 Team needed. Note: if Malik were to get untracked, this team could much more likely weather recent flameouts by Devonte versus Huskies and Svi versus Sun Devils.
Worse still, this shorthand KU Team IS very vulnerable in the near future to:
a.) a series of 2 in 3 sets that will come during conference, unless Cunliffe, Preston and DeRousa show up; and
b.) to inevitable extended shooting slumps by our first three options, unless Malik comes around as a viable fourth option.
Penultimately, and I have saved the worst for next to last, we are one big shy of the minimum two needed, just to sustain a 4-1 set for a season. And we are 2 bigs shy of being able to matchup with the occasional double post teams we will face. And Iām not even accounting for possible injury to Doke.
Ultimately, this team lacks back ups, a problem it presently seems unlikely to escape. And this leaves it avoiding fouling and so being unable to play aggressive Self defense, or rebound much, for extended stretches. Self has gone small and schemed a scoring team, but a defense first coach only able to have his team guard 10 mpg a game, and even then not really having any lock down defenders, well, that is a sad š¢ sight.
So: what happened?
Reality and an apparent recruiting embargo happened.
Fans denial met reality.
Why did the media suffer denial, too?
Maybe they have been burned so many times (much of 13 seasons) by Self producing hat rabbit driven miracles, they just decided to go along.
Or maybe overhyping KU early has helped with bet balancing?
I donāt know.
But KU just does have 5 very potentially and intermittently VERY good players.
But itās kind of like bridge with five good face cards in Trump, no other face cards and even distribution of suits in your hand. Five good Trump cards is five tricks, but ten points is still only ten points and you need at least 13 to open unless you can bluff like hell and cross ruff unexpectedly.
Self needs just a few more face cards on the bench in a big man suit and with the right distribution on some other teams he could once again go to game.
But presently, it looks like Hopkins and Hurley found two ways to exploit his lack of those cards on the bench, and now others will likely emulate. On our hot nights, we will still prevail. Itās the warm and cold nights that will grow increasingly fitful, if no more bench cards are dealt.