@Barney
This tax plan will, by 2026, raise taxes on most all individuals earning less than $50,000. This is because while the rates go down, many deductions are eliminated. For example, the personal exemption is eliminated. This means that, although the child tax credit goes UP (from $1000 to $2000), the $4150 that you could claim in personal exemptions is gone, so a married couple with two kids would end up paying more because gaining the higher tax credit doesn't offset losing the exemption.
There are lots of little things like that in the bill. For every item that seems like a benefit for lower or middle income people, there's an offsetting item that hurts them just as much, meaning for most average people, their taxes won't go down, and as you go down the income ladder, the harm is greater because the deductions and exemptions that were eliminated are larger.
For example, that personal exemption is equal to nearly 10% for a household bringing in $45,000 a year. For a married couple here in Kansas with a couple kids, where that's the median income, losing out on that 16 grand in exemptions is much bigger than the bigger child credits and the 3% deduction in tax rate.
And remember, all of those rates for individuals revert back to the current levels in 2026. With how this bill affects the deficit, it is doubtful that Republicans will have the appetite to extend those (or make them permanent) at that point. Which means that even if you do get a small benefit right now, in 10 years you will give all of that back when the tax levels go back to what they are now, but you still don't have the deductions and exemptions that were eliminated in this bill.
There is very little chance that average Americans benefit from this bill after 2026, even if some of us do benefit now. My wife ran some preliminary numbers last week for us, I ran some more on Monday, and it looks like we will benefit in the short term. But this is still a bad bill overall. Chances are my parents, who are nearing retirement age, will get hit pretty hard by this bill. My wife's mother will as well with just a single income. My wife and I saving maybe a couple hundred dollars a year isn't worth seeing both of our parents lose out on hundreds as their taxes increase, or see their healthcare go up since the ACA mandate is repealed here.
That's not worth $200 a year to me. You're basically betting that whatever small benefits you gain this year will get extended in a decade, or that it won't be your problem by then. That's a losing bet if you ask me.
Edit: Just re-ran the numbers for my family against the final bill. My wife and I will see our taxes go down between 4% and 5%, then go up 0.2% when the current rates expire.
My parents will initially see their taxes go down by about 3%, but once they retire, their tax savings will shrink to 2%, then disappear after 2026, when their taxes will also go back up by 0.2%
My wife's mom will see her taxes go down very slightly (between 1% and 2%), then go back up in 2026.
I can't really account for how the ACA mandate repeal will affect my family or our aging parents, but my guess is that it will not be a benefit.