We can infer the outline of KU victory by the following stats from three categories:
SHOOTING:
KU's FG% is 50.2
OPP's FG% is 40.2
KU's 3pt% is 41.1 on 492
OPP's 3pt% is 31.4 on 474
DISRUPTION:
KU TOs 225
OPP TOs 260
KU Blks 86
OPP Blks 66
KU Stls 139
OPP Stls 108
REBOUNDING:
KU Def.Rbds 512
OPP Def Rbds 449
KU Off Rbds 181
OPP Off Rbds 228
KU shoots better inside and out and takes more treys. And KU taking more treys actually leverages up KU's scoring efficiency. KU turns it over less. KU blocks more. KU steals more. Despite being "small," KU also gets sharply more defensive rebounds, but sharply fewer offensive rebounds. Inference: KU gets way more first shots than opponents, way fewer (logically) second shot attempts, and apparently makes a sharply higher percentage of first shot attempts. In turn, opponents are having to score far more of their points on second shot attempts than KU.
The Opponents having to score more on second shot attempts implies something else a bit more subtle. Since the opponent has to take more seconds shots to beat KU over 40 minutes, then, regardless of what tempo is being played, at the end of games, opponents' shooting legs are much more tired than are KU's. Put another way, because KU makes so many first shots, when it's legs are more fresh, and the opponent has to make so many shots when it's legs are less fresh, KU is effectively biasing the opponent's shooting percentages downward with fatigue, and giving its defense more opportunities for blocks and steals.
Bill Self has given his dwarf, short handed team an unfair advantage. :-)
He has combined good shooting and sticky, rather than dominating defense, to push opponents into second shooting themselves out of games. Now we know why KU is so successful late. KU is scoring on first shots. Opponents are scoring on second shots. Other things equal, first shots (with a bunch of sharp shooters) yield a higher percentage than second shots.) And by the last ten minutes of a game, the opponent's shooting legs just are not conditioned for the increased number of second shots they have had taken and so they are missing even more first shots, and not jumping as high for rebounds either. because of all the additional jumping for rebounds they have been engaging in the prior 30-35 minutes.
INSANELY. BRILLIANT. STRATEGY.
Practically invisible.
It took me till now to even start to see it.
Of course, once you know how the magician is doing the trick, then you can see how it would be rather easy to disrupt the illusion.
Any team that can shoot about 51 FG% against KU will likely beat KU's 50 FG%. Or to put it another way, anyone that can lower KU's FG%, while pushing its own above KU's FG% will win. That much is obivious, right?
Clearly, all coaches have been trying with little success to find a way to do that all season.
So: here is the magic path for an opponent. These are frankly easily doable things. But only if one thinks to do them.
Do 1: Encourage KU into taking fewer treys and more of them from farther out, by encouraging them to drive with their off hands.
How: Overplay our perimeter guys out around 22. Guard their strong hand. Give them a free pass to penetrate with their off hand. Use help to strip the off hand penetration.
Net Benefit: Forces their trey percentage down and number of treys down, and increases strips for one shot baskets in transition.
Do 2: Keep your outside 3pt attempts way less than KU's, which you have lowered, unless you have some great trey ballers.
How: Run your offense and play for short threes with cuts and drives.
Net Benefit: Keeps your inferior trey shooting dragging you down. Increases your FG% and fouls-up Devonte and Udoka, especially.
Do 3: Protect, protect, protect, then protect some more.
How: Don't run except on steals. Walk it up. Run the stuff. Get as many first shot opps as KU.
Net Benefit: KU probably can't win without forcing you into way more second-shot shooting.
Do 4: Don't get blocked. Get a first shot.Period.
How: Don't take blockable shots. Don't give KU the blocking stat. Run the stuff. Drive and cut. Score and get fouled.
Net Benefit: Shot blocking is not an act of domination for KU, as it is for most teams. It is part of a strategy of forcing you into leg fatigue shooting down the stretch. KU needs shot blocks to shift more of your shooting into second shot shooting, when your shooting percentage declines, because the shot clock is constraining you and your legs are more fatigued.
Do 5: Strip more. Strip and run. Strip and walk. Strip, strip, strip, strip.
How: See Do 1.
Net Benefit: Stealing is crucial to KU's strategy of winning with way more first shot scoring at higher first shot percentages.
Do 5: Get more defensive rebounds
How: Attack the reeb rather than box out. You are likely the taller, slower team. Boxing out quick, short, leapers is a fool's game for taller, slower players. Get to the ball first and let your height be the unfair advantage. Force KU to run around AND jump for 40 minutes for any rebounds it gets. You will be tall at the end, when KU is jumping less.
Net Benefit: Forcing KU to work harder at rebounding is one of the best ways to tire its shooting legs.The more KU has to work at rebounding on first shots means the less you have been turning it over and getting it stripped from you without them having to jump for a rebound.
Do 6: Wear down KU's legs by making them guard more first shots longer.
How: Don't TO, or get stripped, and run Self's weave on him to force your perimeter defenders to slide a lot on defense.
Net Benefit: Self runs the weave mostly because others don't. The weave lets his guys run straight ahead for short bursts, then turn and drive straight to iron, while defenders have to slide sideways in really long slides across much of the width of the floor, and then remain on edge to turn and burn to catch the driver. Every weave burns more of the defender's gas than the offender's gas. Run the weave, then run your own offense, then get an open first shot. Don't give KU fresher shooting legs late.
Do 7: Make Doke shoot FTs, not short FGs.
How: Foul Doke at the start of his offensive move, not the end. Absolutely no dunks allowed.
Net Benefit: An opponent could probably defeat KU simply by putting Doke on the FT 20 possessions. If an opponent did that AND the above 6 Do's, victory over KU would be automatic.
Now, don't tell anyone.
