BShark said:
No
A little logical analysis can trigger a reactive "no" sometimes.
:-)
Some used to like to say that I saw too much darkness in D1, especially before the FBI investigations were announced, but not so much now. Howling!
But I really think its going to take a lot more than what has been indicated and/or leaked about Self and KU, to make it credible that Bill Self and KU are among the big cheaters of D1.
Not. Very. Likely.
Yet.
I suspect a lot of board rats here and fans, even the naive bettors (the professional gamblers have apparently gotten it all along), across the country are going to have to readjust their beliefs and denial after this is all over, regarding what is the norm in college basketball in entertainment value incentivizing during recruiting and during college attendance, and change their expectations even more about what are the extremes. Nevertheless, I remain not just hopeful, but somewhat confident based on who has gotten the bulk of the talent all these years, that Self and KU will at the end at least wind up looking like the leper with the most fingers, when the remaining fingers are counted. And that is all that has ever been claimed for KU by many KU fans that I recall, not that KU was without sin.
By the above, I am NOT saying the wheels of justice will necessarily mete out equitable punishments and spare Self and/or KU. I can't be confident yet how that will play out.
But I just don't see any way for The Powers That Be (TPTB) to lower the boom on ALL the EST programs to the degree they appear likely to deserve from their 6-10 OAD teams of the recent past. My hunch is one program, or maybe two, each from EST, CST, MST, and PST will be treated as sacrificial lambs, to make it look "unbiased", so that others can be raised up after, as the "virtuous," to carry on the cash register ringing that is the NCAA regular season and March Carney.
It even appears some times that NOVA might perhaps have been elevated the last couple seasons, maybe in anticipation of the investigations, to replace the one or two EST teams that might have to be sacrificed.
I don't claim there is a grand conspiracy in this. I believe things are largely entertainment value driven, not so much criminal conspiracy driven (at least in the big picture), and so I don't believe broad criminal conspiracies are necessary in this sort of context. There just has to be some order imposed to keep the golden eggs coming to the right people, and squeeze out a few of those that are not wanted in the club, or that are somehow preventing the club from optimizing in ways we ordinary folk can't grasp. I don't really see this as a cynical POV, rather as real politik and real economik POV in a real world. But as always, may I remind, that I am just a layman and a fan speculating solely based on remote observation, and am NOT a legal professional.
Could KU be the CST school sacrificed? Anything is possible, when sacrifices are being sought. It certainly wouldn't hurt ratings and betting rates to have the Texas schools start winning the Big 12 and NOT having KU sub optimizing eyeballs and clicks in the Sweet 16, Elite Eight and Final Four as frequently as KU shows up in those.
Could Arizona be the PST school that gets sacrificed. Looks like it already is, but who can say for sure.
Will someone in EST get sacrificed? Seems likely for appearances. Will it be Duke, UK, or UNC? Only if absolutely necessary, to make the knuckle draggers keep coming gullibly to the March Carney. But my guess is that just won't be necessary. My guess is Louisville, or someone else, like them,will be the sacrificial lamb for the EST. Louisville is a cheap sacrifice, since they are already beaten down to begin with.
So: here is one hypothetical scenario: Louisville, KU, Arizona are the only big names that are drug through the mud and Self/KU is penalized for having done relatively little wrong. Adidas winds up the net loser with its two big basketball programs put on the ropes for awhile. Nike takes minor hits to make it look "unbiased" along petroshoeco brands, and ASU, or USC takes up the NIKE slack in the PST.
It is worth remembering that when corruption is really widespread in a field, not infrequently the object of commissions and investigations appears just to be to limit the damage and knowledge of what has really been going on, fashion a palatable explanation, produce a couple scapegoats, and let everyone else constitute a status quo that is "clean" and that can move on and continue the gravy train and essentially help deny the corrpution was widespread in quid pro quo for getting to continue the corruption. This is apparently what we are witnessing currently with the widely reputed (and increasingly documented) pedophile rings in Washington, New York, London and Hollywood that are reputedly used to keep the corruption in those hub cities of the empire in line and playing ball. This was what we saw in the attempts to get Trump, in 9-11, Iran-Contra, Watergate, and the Kennedy assassination. Those that expect there to be widespread corruption in college basketball should, therefore, expect a similar paving over of most of what is wrong and a few scapegoats, not much more.
But in the end, I expect the process will likely reveal, inspite of itself, perhaps even because of the predictability of processes like this, that Self/KU, whether scapegoated, or not, was among the lesser offenders, if they in fact did anything wrong at all. And it is already reputed that FBI/DOJ define KU, at least, as a victim, not the perpetrator, if I recall correctly. This apparently conveniently enlists the university in the FBI/DOJ investigation in order to save itself from being treated as a perp. It also, presumably, makes the university more willing to let Self be the scapegoat, if it were to become expedient to do so.
I guess this may be just how things are done in the big time, when big money is involved and "entertainment values" appear to rule.
But as an ordinary KU fan, what I really believe and expect is most probable is that Self is clean and playing within the rules, however imperfectly they are drawn, and does not deserve what has come his way during this investigation.
Rock Chalk!