@kjayhawks
At one time, Boxing and horse racing were the most popular sports in this country (about 100 years ago). Basketball was popular in gym classes (kind of like kickball is). Baseball was riddled with scandal. Football barely had a foothold in American consciousness.
Now horse racing is barely surviving outside specific pockets in the country. Boxing is popular for maybe one or two major fights a year.
Sports don't necessarily die, but they can re-order.
I could see a scenario where football continues to be popular only in the South, while other sports become more popular in other places in the country. The head injury issues have caused lots of parents to pull their kids from youth football. Those kids are growing up playing other sports. Soccer is booming in the suburbs. Lacrosse is popular in the northeast. Baseball is making a comeback in urban areas.
Lots of former players are now saying that because of health concerns, they aren't going to let their sons play football. That's a huge blow to the game.
Chipping away at the player pool because of controversy, health concerns and overall interest dropping won't "kill" football. But it's status as the most popular sport in the country is not guaranteed in perpetuity.
A smaller player pool means less excitement and interest because you will miss out on elite talents.
Terrell Owens was a very good basketball player. So was Randy Moss. In a different environment, maybe those guys play a different sport. Chad (Ochocinco) Johnson was a pretty solid soccer player growing up until he pursued football full time.
Tony Gonzalez was a college basketball player. So was Antonio Gates. That's two of the best tight ends of the last 20 years or so.
John Elway got drafted by the Yankees. Russell Wilson was drafted by the Rangers. That's a couple of Super Bowl winning QBs.
Brett Favre says he hopes his kids pick a different sport. Other former players are outright saying they won't allow their kids to play.
Participation has dropped 30% in the last 8 years at the youth level, from over 3 million kids to about 2.25 million playing. Even a little more erosion (let's say down from 2.25 million to 1.8 million) is probably enough to tilt the scales in another 10 or 15 years.
This article ↗ says that participation at the high school level was down more than 10% in Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Wisconsin and Illinois. 41 total states saw a decline in football participation. Overall, football participation has fallen about 5% at the high school level from 2008 to last fall.
Think of it this way. The kids that were playing youth football at its peak in 2009 as 8 and 9 year olds were high school seniors last fall. Those kids grew up playing football, and yet participation declined by 5% among that group compared to 2009. The drop of 30% from 2008 to last fall at the youth level means that in 9 years (when those kids are seniors), if the natural decline holds consistent, instead of there being over 1 million kids playing high school football in 2028, there will be something like 750,000. That means that school that usually has 100 kids out for football now will have about 75 in 10 years. That's still a good size. But the school that only gets 45 kids out now will only be getting 30-35 out in 10 years. The school that only gets 25-30 kids out now probably won't have enough to have a program in 10 years.
And this doesn't consider that many of these kids are growing up playing sports other than football. If you're a good basketball or baseball or lacrosse or soccer player, you aren't picking up football when you get to high school. A lot of your friends aren't playing football, so it's less likely that you are picking it up.
More and more of these kids are growing up not going to games on Fridays (because older brothers and cousins aren't playing for the local high school) or watching every Sunday (because their parents are cutting the cord or because they have a soccer tournament, for example). Football isn't automatically part of life. And that is ultimately why it will start to fade.
