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Kansas - The best until proven otherwise. The team is certainly better than they were last year. While last year's team was a perimeter oriented team, this year will be more diverse. Dedric Lawson should be a real force, capable of a double double every night. Azubuike gives KU a guy that might shoot 80% from the field. Quentin Grimes might be the best freshman in the conference. Devon Dotson gets the keys to the Ferrari and KJ Lawson will probably surprise people with his versatility. And unlike this past season, KU has depth with Moore, McCormack, Lightfoot, Agbaji, Cunliffe and maybe De Sousa. This team is Final Four loaded.
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West Virginia - The Mountaineers should be better offensively than they have been over the last several years. Losing Carter and Miles hurts, but that will probably be seen more on defense than offense because Ahmad can finally fully explore his offensive potential. They are adding a bunch of athletic recruits that will probably defend like hell and just generally make trips to Morgantown miserable, or in other words, business as usual.
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Kansas State - The Cats actually have a lot of talent with Wade, Stokes and Brown all back. They will compete every night. I'm not sold on Bruce Weber's coaching ability or their depth, but they have enough top line talent to overcome that. KSU fans secretly wish Weber was a better recruiter again next March when they fall a bit short once again.
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TCU - TCU will go as far as a healthy Jaylen Fisher allows. He should be 100% by November, but it was clear that TCU fell apart without him. Jamie Dixon has this thing moving in the right direction, though. TCU was in line for a top 6 seed with Fisher. I would anticipate a top 5 seed as a possibility if they stay healthy this year. They also signed maybe their best recruiting class in program history.
It gets complicated after these four.
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Iowa State - I think ISU makes a huge jump next year. Wigginton is back to run the show, and they actually have guys to put with him. They aren't world beaters, but they should be safely on the right side of the bubble come March. They even added some weapons for Wigginton to ease the offensive burden for him.
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Texas - Texas has talent, but I don't know how they can tap into all of that. They could finish third if they tap into all of it. They could finish seventh if they continue to be snake bitten. Slotting them here feels safe. I do think Shaka Smart made a good move to recruit guys similar to ones he would have recruited at VCU, except ranked maybe 20 - 30 spots higher. No five stars in this group, but maybe this is the right mix of players for him. Texas could finish anywhere 3-7 and I wouldn't blink.
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Baylor - Can't figure out what the Bears have right now. They are losing a lot of talent and I am not seeing how they have replaced it all. There are scenarios where they are the worst team in the conference.
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Texas Tech - I would have them fourth had Zaire Smith returned (he would be my early pick for Big 12 POY). With him gone, though, plus losing that group of seniors, I think they tumble. He was a real difference maker for them. I am sure they thought he would be in Lubbock for at least two years.
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Oklahoma State - Part of me feels like they should be higher, but every time I look at that roster, I can't put them ahead of any of the group above them. Wouldn't be surprised if they finished .500 in the conference, though.
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Oklahoma - The Sooners will be bad without Trae Young. I don't see a capable PG to fill even 75% of what he did. I haven't seen enough improvement from their experienced players, and they don't have impact recruits coming in that will change the trajectory of this squad. I know they got grad transfers coming in, but Young did so much to make that offense function, and a downgrade at PG (and that's inevitable) probably keeps them from winning more than 5 or 6 games in conference.