My father, a retired Marine Major with all his parts still attached after visits to the Solomons, the Marianas, and the Jimas, in the War to end all obstructions to sea lanes, oil reserves, and noncompliant central banks, said, "Son, whatever you do, be on the side of history and be lucky. One or the other isn't enough. But accomplish both and the rest will take care of itself."
Over the years, since his death from wise old age, and not a knee mortar, I have taken this sage wisdom to heart, when I have had the insight required to infer history's side and direction forward.
So: what to make of KU sailing into the coming campaign without three-guns in the shadow of Golden State winning big with 3 > 2 and Villanova winning big with 3 > 2 and Duke having won big recently with 3 > 2? And KU just having had a couple 30+ win seasons and a Final Four appearance with 3 > 2?
I'll tell you what to make of it: KU is a fast ship sailing into harms way.
Some sporting rose-colored Ray-Bans have counseled not to worry, because even Easy-Roy could win a ring without >38% trey shooters.
The above comforted me until I recalled that all the other good teams went down to injuries, failures to show, unfavorable matchups, and lack of apparent Nike-EST referee bias.
Let's drop out of hypermodernity a moment and get real here, people.
KU will not get the apparent Nike-EST whistle in the Carney, like Nova.
KU will not get to shoot and make more 3s than the the other teams shoot and make 3s, like Nova.
KU no longer has a Jesuit Chancellor, or a Jesuit AD, like Nova, and this can be a serious impediment in both God's eyes and god's soldiers' eyes.
KU does not have a Jesuit Coach, like Nova's Jay Wrong, but such things are rarely decisive in inter-religious rivalries. After all, the Golden Domers made hay with Protestant Knute Rockne. And there have been some great Catholic coaches at secular state universities. We knuckle dragging ordinary folk don't worry about such things. But TPTB, well, they keep score on such things. It apparently matters to them that the US Supreme Court is stacked half Catholic and half Jewish with a tie-breaking former Catholic cum Episcopalian. (Note: Where are all the Mormons, Christian Fundamentalists, Muslims, Buddhists, Hindus, and atheists on the Supreme Court?) Hence, we can infer that while KU lacking a Jesuit Chancellor, AD and coach, may not hurt KU, it for certain will not help it in the grand karma of a Carney. :-)
KU is also not in the EST, as Nova is. We all too well know what THAT implies. Non EST Teams win the Carney with about the same frequency that the private oligarchy does not get its way in foreign policy.
KU is also not contracted with Nike, as Nova is. I won't even master the obvious here.
What KU suddenly and conspicuously has in its apparent favor is as many L&S bigs asymmetrically stacked, er, anomalously "developed," at the Monarch of the Midlands, as trifectates were stacked, er, anomalously "developed" at the Palestra last season.
So: in the current basketball novelization (soon to be a major Netflix gaze'n'graze) "The Age of Asymmetry," co-written by Bo Wildmon 2.0 and Edith Wharton 2.0, the plot plays out that KU has been stacked by the one-eyed forces of darkness and pre-selected for myriad reasons to win it all (one improbable side of history that could be quite victory-filled to be on), or...
Self has in perhaps desperate recognition of what he perhaps appears no longer to be allowed to sign--trifectates--stacked, er, "developed" his team with bigs in hopes of not playing the three ball game the apparent forces of darkness appear now increasingly to be playing, and has instead torn a page from Jay Wrong's asymmetric stacking, er, anomalous "developing" of six > 39% trifectates.
Yesterday, I explored the prospect of how Self and KU might exploit the asymmetry of 6 L&S bigs in the Age of Asymmetry through the convention of allusions to Tolkein's Ring Trilogy in which the forces of the single flaming eye of Dark Lord Nikron might be outflanked by an allied uprising of the majors and mid majors of Midway Earth.
Note that the analysis distilled to guard hard and then determine how many dunk attempts (DAs) it would require to raise the 2pt percentage high enough, in combination with the guard hard, 30-foul-to-give-inside defense to net more points than the high octane, high point-per-possession offenses of recent teams like Golden State in the NBA, Villanova in D1, and even the last two KU teams in D1. Interestingly, I posed the foundational question of how many DAs would it take to beat three-point happy teams in the Carney and got no responses. I cannot say that I blame board rats for not responding, since most, like me, are probably not at all convinced that KU could feasibly take-and-make enough dunks to raise KU's 2pt% high enough to defeat a high octane three balling team for the EST under the specter of the Dark Lord Nikron. Capice?
So: this brings me to consider the other possibility; that KU is SOL before it starts--a fast ship destined for sinking in the harm's way of the Battle of Dayton aka the site of the 2018-2019 March Carney Final Four.
Under the SOL Scenario, KU steams all ahead full through a season of asymmetry, same as it did last season. Last season, KU had outside game and next to no inside game. Well, it had Doke who could be counted on to dunk 8-10 times, and to have to be pulled situationally for weak FT shooting, the last 5 minutes of each game. But otherwise, things inside quickly defaulted to slim (Mitch) and none (as in no credible D1 bigs). The 2017-18 Jayhawks were asymmetric OUTSIDE.
In contradistinction, the 2018-19 Jayhawks will be asymmetric INSIDE.
Asymmetry wins many battles and looks impressive doing it.
But looking back over history, asymmetry is NOT a recipe for winning wars, or basketball titles.
Recall that in addition to having asymmetric advantage in 3 point shooting, Villanova was the only team in D1 to have BOTH a strong inside game and a crazy strong, essentially unprecedented outside game.
If Easy Roy's Easy Heels of the prior season had come up against a balanced team; i.e., a team with both an inside game and an outside game, let us be frank: Easy Roy and his Easy Heels would each have one less ring. Period.
So: it looks like KU is sailing into harm's way this season, pretty much as it did last season; i.e., with a gaping vulnerability that can be exploited by any well-diversified opponent that can score inside and outside, and make its free throws.
Will there be many such teams next season?
No.
Will there be a few.
It is reasonably rare when there aren't at least one or two. For every season like the one that Easy Roy and his Easy Heels won without having to face a well-balanced opponent, there are 4 or 5 seasons where such opponents are present and one or two usually make it to the FF. And, of course, one usually wins it.
I realize that last season's stacked, er, freakishly endowed Villanova Tricats probably will prolly NOT be duplicated (though not for a lack of trying).
But should KU lack a single > 40% trifectate, well, it would really only take a team with a 4 man big rotation and two > 40% wings and KU's fast ship of L&Ss--a phenomenon observed most seasons--and the USS Jayhawk will be sitting at the bottom waiting for Jim Cameron to send the sub he used to explore the Titanic to explore the USS Jayhawk.
Real Hoops Politik: its a female dog, er, excuse me, it is a gender non-specific dog.