No surprise that Lawson makes first team AA. If he puts up numbers close to what he did at Memphis while KU wins 30+ games, those numbers make him Big 12 POY and a contender for NPOY.
As for Duke, it all rides on their big 3 staying healthy and co-existing together. Each of those guys is a handful on their own, but there's a question of whether any of them is good enough distributing the basketball to punish the inevitable double teams and slow rotations that come when they do draw the defense. If they do, they will absolutely shred teams with all of the talent they have. If not, though, they will struggle to get good shots and that will be their undoing.
For Kentucky, I think this team has a chance to be better than the last couple versions for Calipari because I think they will defend. The last few UK teams had trouble finding an identity on that end. I think this team will be better on D, which was Calipari's calling card at UMass and Memphis if you remember prior to the OAD revolution - tons of tough minded defense first guys and one big time scorer.
Gonzaga and Nevada are the wild cards - experienced and talented. Maybe not next level superstars, but collegiate superstars that can carry their teams through the college season. I would not be surprised to see one or both of those teams in the Final Four.
In fact, if I had to pick a Final Four right now today, I would pick Kansas, Kentucky (too much talent on both those teams - anything less is a disappointment if they stay healthy), Nevada and North Carolina (gut feeling that they just keep getting better all season). I think Duke fades down the stretch with their big 3 struggling to do something other than just take turns on offense. I think Gonzaga gets a bad NCAA draw because they play in a weaker conference, which costs them a chance to go deep in the tourney. Of course, it's a week before any real games are played. Guys are going to play poorly, get hurt, etc. But that's where I land right now. I reserve the right to change my mind a couple dozen times.