KU -3.5 seems low to me, even given the condition of the roster. Counted the roster numbers by class. We have 47(!) upperclassmen and 22(!) underclassmen. Ideally those numbers would be flipped. So we're 16 short of 85 and have half the underclassmen of most programs. We still have FCS-ish type scholarship numbers and won't be able to add on net until this year's juniors graduate since Beaty took so many JuCo and grad transfer kids on blueshirts. Phil Steele's numbers have Beaty's % of recruits as transfers at 50%. Not ideal.
The talent is better than it's been in previous years, but still only a handful at max get sniffs in the NFL. Still extremely short on depth, especially in the defensive front 7. I hate that we're going to have to play Terry at NT instead of redshirting him but there's really no other option Even if we have 2 we feel ok about, they won't last all year and Terry will have to take some snaps. In a perfect world, Sam Burt steps up and gives us 2.5 options so we can use Terry in 4 games. Same with Potter at ILB. Crazy stat: Les Miles has signed more HS DT's than David Beaty at KU.
We absolutely need a QB to step up. I like our OL (though the right side freaks me out some), RB's, and WR's. The RB trio is one of the best in the league and Les's finds at WR have really impressed. Quan Hampton and Evan Fairs, both coming off RS's, will have an impact as well. It will all be somewhat moot if we don't find a serviceable QB. Word out of camp is MacVittie just hasn't been able to pick up the offense as quick as they'd hoped. Stanley is further ahead as far as executing the offense at this point, but he can't do most of the things MacVittie can, especially running the ball. His accuracy has also been inconsistent. I bet both play week 1, neither looks great, and we win something like 31-20.
Coastal actually could be the easier game. Pooka will be back and they're going through a coaching transition after a losing record last year. They're also not up to FBS numbers yet after coming up in 2017. Last year they played one P5 team (S Carolina) and lost by 35. They're still a young team and really struggle throwing the ball. If our defensive front holds up it could be a blowout.
Honestly, I think we get housed at BC. They feel like a 7-8 win team to me. They can really run the football, so I can't see us hanging with them for four quarters. The final score likely won't say how close the game was. I could see something like 34-17.
If we win the games we should in non-con we've got a shot at 4 wins. I can see 5 if I REALLY squint. But I like the O/U at 3.5 and I'll take the over. I think we beat WVU and KSU in the league. WVU is the least experienced team in the league, and we get them as our first league game. KSU is also going through a coaching transition, but is a much more veteran team. They're not as talented as WVU, but Klieman can coach. They don't have much depth on defense, so that one could be just who can stay upright longer.