@globaljaybird I don't think Smart is a good comparison. Smart was going to get drafted on intangibles. Embiids qualities are quite tangible. 7ft. tall, good foot work, nimble, 7ft. tall rapidly advancing offensive and defensive game, 7ft. tall.
I think Jared Sullinger would be a better cautionary tale. But I also think better role models would be multi-year bigs who stick in the league like: Shaq (wasn't big enough as a freshman) Tim Duncan (needed to work on fundamentals) Hakeem (actually was raw). There are way more quality bigs who spent 3 years in college than 1.
Unfortunately the trend is toward shorter college careers so they don't get exposed. The players get drafted on potential not production. This also leads to a crappy NBA with talented players with no classic college coaching to draw upon. You can't tell me Dean Smith didn't help mould Michael Jordan. You can't possibly convince me that continuity in coaching and on court playing time can be replaced by bench time and lots of practice. I don't care how good your trainers are.
2-3 years of Bill Self, Coach K, even Calipari will prepare these guys much better for the next level.
I have seen the numbers. Yes most players can only improve the first contract by %25 which doesn't cover the lost year of pay. However, the real money is in the second contract (ask Paul Pierce or Greg Ostertag). It doesn't matter if they sign for less money because they stayed an extra; year as long as you are truly a stud. If you are trying to hide a deficiency then go pro while you can you aren't getting a second contract anyway (Selby, JuJu).
As Bilas said earlier in the season, "He's the real deal."
Embiid is a stud he doesn't have to go this year if he doesn't want to. He will still be a top 5 pick next year as long as his back problems are exactly as reported. If his back is worse than reported and he can hide his injury during his physical he'd better go.