Moderates 55%ish (buttigieg/biden/Klobuchar), progressives 44%ish (Sanders/Warren) . I wonder how that split compares to National appeal.
I don't think Buttigieg can carry the South (gay man appealing to Roman Catholics and the black vote), Klobuchar can. Biden's betting he can. But I think the progressives can as well. I think Biden is going to be surprised how much ground he loses to the progressives in the South.
Warren is toast unless she pulls a miracle and wins NH. Other point I’d make is it’s about the math, it’s about the math, it’s about the (delegate) math. All states now allocate proportionally over the 15% viability threshold. There are some at large delegates and some in Congressional or state legislative districts. 2/3 of all delegates will be allocated by the end of March. About 15% are superdelegates that can’t vote on the first ballot at the DNC, but if we go to a second ballot both super and normal delegates are unpledged. Then the horsetrading begins.
The upshot is Bernie will try to rack up delegates in smaller caucus states since he’s more popular with that type of electorate. Biden needs black voters in the diverse primaries in the South. And don’t forget the total wildcard here: Bloomberg. If Biden starts to fade (say he wins S.C. but barely and loses NV), people looking in that lane may turn to Bloomberg and his bottomless war chest. If Boot Edge Edge or Warren keeps going through Super Tuesday and gets delegates, Biden gets a bunch, and Bloomberg gets some, we could be headed for a contested convention and WHEW BOY buckle up. Bloomberg is best positioned (along with Bernie) to go the distance. 1,990 is the magic number. Popular vote won’t matter nearly as much as pledged delegate accumulation. Have to perform well both locally and statewide to maximize your haul.
As a former political hack this is going to be fun to follow
@FarmerJayhawk I can't see Bloomberg appealing to anyone. I think big money candidates taking shots from the sidelines feels disingenuous and there are closer lillypads to Biden for his base to hop to.
How quickly do you think Warren concedes if she loses NH by a similar margin? Does her base go to Sanders quickly?
@approxinfinity said in moderates and progressives:
@FarmerJayhawk I can't see Bloomberg appealing to anyone. I think big money candidates taking shots from the sidelines feels disingenuous and there are closer lillypads to Biden for his base to hop to.
How quickly do you think Warren concedes if she loses NH by a similar margin? Does her base go to Sanders quickly?
Bloomberg will appeal to the #NeverSocialism types who make up a sizable portion of the party. Pew put out a study a day or so ago about the views of Democratic voters. I think there's real heartburn about the potential of a Bernie nomination, and a lot of establishment D's will move that way if Biden and Pete fall apart (which definitely could happen).
If Warren gets 3rd or worse in NH she'll drop out that night or the next day. There won't be money left to go on, and she's already canceling ad buys in NV and SC. There's 11 days between NH and Nevada, so they'll move that way fairly quickly. I'd also say a lot of Warren voters don't necessarily have Bernie as their second choice. It'll certainly put pressure on Klobuchar to drop out to move some more moderate voters to Biden or Pete's column before NV.
I'd rather Klobuchar stay in. She's got as good a chance as anyone of attracting Warren voters that don't favor Bernie. I'd rather she keep Biden behind. She's the sensible moderate candidate.
@approxinfinity said in moderates and progressives:
I'd rather Klobuchar stay in. She's got as good a chance as anyone of attractive Warren voters that don't favor Bernie. I'd rather she keep Biden behind. She's the sensible moderate candidate.
Oh yeah, as far as preferences I’m with you. Just had my war room hat on
Curious if a moderate like Klobuchar or Pete could pick up votes if they repositioned themselves as a 'progressive that isn't a socialist' and push Bernie and Warren further into a fringe space.
@bskeet said in moderates and progressives:
Curious if a moderate like Klobuchar or Pete could pick up votes if they repositioned themselves as a 'progressive that isn't a socialist' and push Bernie and Warren further into a fringe space.
I doubt it. I don’t think there really is a moderate in the D field per se. They all message on progressive bona fides. Bernie is Bernie is Bernie. I don’t think he’d change his message with a gun to his head.