Interesting news today, that Sen. Cruz talked Trump out of endorsing ↗ Marshall.
So what's everyone's call on the primary? I think Marshall squeaks it out like 42-38-10-5. Kobach really underperforms in the first district due to who he is as a person, and Marshall has every endorsement you could possibly want from there. Only chance I think Kobach has is really doing well in the 2nd and 4th, and Bob Hamilton & Lindstrom taking a bunch of votes from Marshall in the KC burbs, similar to the 2018 gubernatorial primary with Barnett and Selzer playing spoiler.
If Kobach wins, I think Babs rolls in the general. She'll have a tremendous money advantage and Kobach has a real ceiling. I think 15-20% of Republicans would vote for her over Kobach. Marshall is your typical Generic Republican, so he wouldn't have near that kind of crossover vote. He's generally well-liked in GOP circles and has the establishment support. He's also a pretty good fundraiser, so the money disadvantage he has now could be made up. But he doesn't have to spend as much as Bollier to actually win. She has virtually no name ID in the state and will struggle to define herself absent massive spending. All the GOP really has to do is not have Roger's support crater with Trump voters and he'll win.
That's my spiel for today.