It can hurt awhile, when things aren't as you thought they were.
All real learning is painful.
You will be ok.
jaybate 1.0
10346 posts
Impressive how the NCAA and member schools could suddenly come up with $160M bones.
Bet they could x 10 that without sweating. The Ox is ready for goring.
Also regarding Michigan, it's diversifying and focusing on buy Michigan to much greater extent than most other U.S. States. But my point is that the car company management, especially global coordination of vastly increasing global operations, is growing in SE Michigan. Every car maker has to be here now in a new way. Previously every firm foreign and domestic had to be here to coordinate North American activity. Now Detroit is becoming a hub for global operations coordination. Most people don't understand that the major automakers share many of the same suppliers in any region of the world and that there is starting to be globalization of suppliers and their raw materials suppliers. Detroit is growing as a hub for that. And the more dangerous the rest of the world gets as conflict grows over control of the Eurasian center point, the more protected and attractive a hub location Detroit becomes for such activity. Detroit is a place where hard choices get made. Detroit is a place that will sacrifice its own, or others, to survive. In times of trouble, when all the talk stops and things have to be done, Detroit understands and plays hardball. It's a scary place that way. But they are a good bunch to have on your side, when the talk stops. Maybe no other bunch in the world could have survived the restructuring of the last 40 years and still be a serious player. They have made mistakes. But they are the kings of grind it out. They have been competing globally since the 1920s. They will make any trade off to survive. The fist statue is there for a reason.
Thanks but I was familiar with domestic assembly locations.
The reason for the locations have little to do with unions, or their absense, as they once did. The UAW leadership was reputedly coopted long ago. Plants are distributed broadly to:
Acquire subsidy;
Acquire congressional and senate votes; and
Acquire diversified logistics that cannot be easily pinched.
Labor costs in USA--Union or nonunion--are quite competitive with those abroad.
And production and assemblies abroad are located there to buy influence and access in those foreign markets.
@drgnslayr made the case clearly. He could make a little more producing abroad, but he chooses not to for a variety of reasons. But if his future viability depended on market share in China, I suspect he would produce some in China, too, as car companies do.
Notice the car companies have had to have major moving subsidies PLUS go bankrupt just to move abroad and produce in those markets. They did that to get market share over there. They could easily have built and produced here and floated cars west, but the Japanese companies would have beaten them to the share.
Only those lacking knowledge of the geostrategic aspects of the business still focus on unions. Unions could be broken up in a second. They exist as risk management tools for labor supply control for the domestic car companies should off shore companies try to crash the North American markets. There is a producer oligopoly that includes the major USA, Japanese, Korean, and European brands. They are allowed to play ball. Controlling domestic labor supply keeps them in line and helps keep Chinese and Indian and other firms out. All producer markets in G8 countries are producer oligopoly regimes. No access happens freely.
Labor unions in the auto industry long ago ceased to function in the way you refer to them.
I don't blame you. It's hard to keep up with this stuff, since the news media no longer covers the news and just reports talking points of PR.
The owners of the New York Federal Reserve branch wanted control of the Eurasian center point. They fought two world wars, a Cold War and the Vietnam War to get it. Once they drove a wedge between USSR and China, they developed China and put a force structure partition in Central Asia between Russia and China. The American economy and your business face the constraints they do, because the owners of the NY Fed branch are determined to control both the North American center point and the Eurasian center point. Period. Everything else is strategy, logistics and tactics to that grand strategic end. We can all complain but once they got control of the reserve currency and a big stick there was turning them back. They are going to to try to get there way no matter what it costs, because turning back now would wreck them. They will hunker down and wait from time to time, but they never let up. This is for all the marbles and the lives of 300 million Americans or a billion Chinese just don't matter, except tactically. Look at the tonnage on the global trade routes. Look at the projections. The Eurasian center point has to be controlled to control the globe. It's end game.
Let's try it on KSU Cats the next time they storm the floor!
Embedded for the law!!! 😈
Insane things happen everywhere but Detroit leads the way! 😀
My ques tion is what was the guy even coming close to it for?!!!!
Coincidentally I have an acquaintance in Ann Arbor that is a retired full time dangerous animal remover. Worked 15 years in Florida and 15 in SE Michigan and said the animals he found in MI were as exotic as those in Florida! Yes he handled alligators!!! 😀
There is actually a lot of "insourcing" under way. Lots of assembly insourcing to Kentucky. But lots of other high value added components are moving this way too. As costs and barriers of progress overseas rise, it pays to cut handling costs and cross cultural communication inefficiencies. Also, and this is huge--information security is more feasible here.
Big trucks are crucial to moving tanks for land wars, so that makes some sense. Mexico has traditionally been viewed by our enemies in time of war as our weak flank to try to destabilize. No doubt most of the Intel operations of the world use drug feuds to destabilize our border with Mexico.
The mining story is a good one. That German coal mine of 48 km2 surprised me. That lake will be interesting with metals. Knew about the ghastly thing at Butte. That
Euro photogs started art photography of industrial ruins and got recognition with their pics of shuttered Detroit factories. They were great. And Detroit is re growing around ruins same as Rome has done repeatedly. Location, location, location makes cities. Linkages to trade routes. When industries and empires die and leave ruins, it does not necessarily mean the linkage advantages of the city place ceases to be exploitable, though sometimes it does.
The British colonial military identified Detroit early on as one of a handful of pivot points that needed to be controlled to controlled to control North America. That geo strategic significance did not end when the timber industry flagged in Detroit. Or later when the chemical industry flagged. Or now when the car industry restructured. Certain places on the chess board remain pivotal no matter what befalls them in the short term.
Eastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri are pivotal to control regardless of the ebbs and flows of the economies on them. Just ask the Bushes that wanted to force a Super Corridor to Winnepeg and got stopped at Richards-Gebaur AFB.
And so on.
Bombing as urban renewal is pretty 20th Century. Production is so spread out it and America is so de industrialized it is not necessary. China is where that sort of thing would still work.
If we go to war with China and Russia over control of Silk Road 2.0, as I expect is looming, Detroit will once again flourish as the nerve center for the arsenal of ww3. It feels like it's already in the early stages of preparation. We have a backup reserve currency. We are prepping for a designer currency crisis to clear the debts to China with devaluation. Think about it. Detroit spans the globe with vehicle operations. It's debts are cleared. It is really best positioned to absorb the shock of global war; I.e., fewest pinch points, most flexibility for unexpected. And Ford was previously restructured by the head of Boeing. No other car company is as integrated in air and land systems and weaponry as Ford and so too it's big three allies. And it sits on one of the world's great untapped oil reserves under the Great Lakes, and Michigan. Instead of bomber plants at Willow Run it will coordinate nano robotic and driverless vehicle and aircraft production at factories around the world. Tesla and Space X would be absorbed immediately. China's production is dangerously over concentrated spatially for the kind of future warfare that looms. Sad and scary, but true.
Blockade running is going after every possibility in hopes of slipping through once.
Since Self has learned to flourish with great 2s and 3s surrounded by whatever the cat drags in, a logical hypothesis is that the shoe powers have decided to deny him his strong suit.
First Brown.
Now Ferguson.
Sooner or later, KU has to quit blockade running and make an alliance to break up the blockade.
Or watch the level of talent continue to decline vis a vis the other elite programs.
B12 has to expand east, too.
I like lots of places people don't ordinarily think of traveling to.
Detroit is a place with a bad rep, but I love SE Michigan and the fresh water boating thing. Can't beat a Pursuit out on the river, and a Ski and kayak out on the lakes and river around Ann Arbor. Or going out of Port Huron. Old Acquaintances here too. The car guys know how to have a good time. There's a reason so many stay put there, if they've also got the means to travel. It is kind of a perfect balance of the Midwest and East. It's an acquired taste, but I like how unapologetically American they are.
It's getting harder to go abroad because of my health, so I satisfy my travel jones with shorter domestic travel.
Just like I like the east side of Italy because it doesn't encourage non Italian tourists, I like certain parts of America that don't encourage tourism either.
I try to travel USA the way I do Europe--off the beaten tourism path.
Mostly pleasure. Wish I we're going to Boston again. Love that city.
Santa Barbara, Tucson, Ann Arbor, Motown.
There is always a calm before a storm!!!
PHOF!
Forget the long coat.
Scottevest--started wearing their vests, and zippered sleeve convertible coats 6 years ago. Would never travel without one again. Carry a change of ultra light nylon shirt, ultralight nylon convertible pants, ultra light underwear, ultralight nylon rain hoody and micro dop kit fitted in the various pockets, so nothing shows and I still have pockets for my phone, passport and a paperback. I am good for 2-3 days on the road with no bag. If I am traveling a few weeks, I add three sets of same clothes in different colors rolled into a tight tube, a pair of shoes and a second micro dop kit and an iPad in a small Rick Steves or Eagle Creek ultralight roll aboard/backpack, box it and Fed Ex or mail it to a hotel I will be staying at overseas. I don't carry luggage through airports and security and on planes and customs anymore unless I have to. No need. No point. Scottevest and ultra light petro fabrics make it a snap. If you are an anal-paranoid, keep a backup pack boxed at a friend's back home with a filled out fed ex bill and if your first boxed pack gets lost or wrecked in shipping, email the friend to overnight or 3 day another. Or just go shopping locally. Ship the bag back home end of trip. Hands free travel!!!!
Cal will learn life after stack soon.
Oooooooookay, but I get the vague sense that you don't wish to be doubted as much as you doubt some others. Call it a wild guess.
Let's do agree to leave things as they are. I am comfortable with things as they stand.
P.S.: Louisville reputedly has a $40+ million deal with Adidas to be specific, but then I suppose we both probably knew THAT long before this thread, didn't we? 😄
Rock Chalk!!
@drgnslayr said:
I know I feel like we aren’t getting the bigs we used to get.
I wrote at length on this elsewhere. Self has never gotten many Big Big Men during his KU tenure and of those he has landed only a few have given him even two good seasons.
Reputation to the contrary, Bill Self may be argued to have been a pioneer of small ball in D1, if one considers small ball to be playing Little Big Men at the 5.
Self has not been given due credit for his contribution to pioneering small ball with Little Big Men. He has been doing it almost all of his 11 seasons but for 2 3/4 seasons, when he had Withey 2 seasons and Embiid for a 3/4s of a season.
What has fooled commentators and fans most of the last eleven seasons is that Self has pounded it inside to his Little Big Men same as he has when he had Big Big Men.
I don't follow the NBA closely enough to know if the NBA started playing Little Big Man Ball 11 years ago, or if it is a more recent phenomenon, but Bill Self has definitely been playing it since he got to KU. He has often tried unsuccessfully to get away from it, but most seasons recruiting limitations, or injuries, or failures in development, have compelled him back to Little Big Man Ball at the 5.
Is there any chance at all that some are waiting for an informal offer and counter offer process to play out and maximize involving agent and shoe endorsement relationships down stream after the OAD season? :-)
Thanks for weighing in. Re: Roy Era? Probably that year that Pugh started his last season. I forget who started with him. They struggled. Pugh was playing injured much of that season, if I recall correctly. Very tough luck. He had looked promising as a back up. He might have done much better healthy, but we will never know. Anyway, it was a significant trough year between two peak runs for Roy. Some times troughs are attributable to multiple deficiencies and so it is hardly fair to attribute it solely to a player like Pugh, who was maybe more visible than some other deficiencies. And I recall how fans said Roy had lost his recruiting mojo. I'm fishing here, but might that trough have coincided with the Roy and Myron Piggie affair reputedly involving parking Jaron at Pem Day, or Barstow, or somewhere, and then Jaron flying the coup for UCLA for reasons that I never really understood, even after reading Sole Influence by Dan Wetzel and that other fellow, whose name escapes me right now? Boy time flies. That is all so long ago now.
@Kcmatt7 said:
KU has had a big man drafted every single season going back to the 2009 season.
No question about it and not a single one would have started at the 5 for Nike-UK or Nike-Duke, except maybe Shady one season, or TRob one season,and it would have had to have been in a season when Nike-UK, or Nike-Duke did not have an OAD center, or an OAD 4.
Frankly, Self's best center prospect coming in was probably Withey. Witney was not considered a prospect the way Embiid was. And Withey, after several years of complete ineptness, or injury, or both, did finally give Self one and 2/3s good seasons. Witney, skinny as he was, was a true footer with a fairly high ranking as a high schooler, as I recall, but of course not the OAD type that UK and Duke sign routinely seemingly every season, or every other season. But recall: Self could not sign even Withey straight out of high school. He had to catch Jeff on the rebound from UA. Witney was a transfer. Withey would have started maybe one season at UK, or Duke, but that would had to have occurred during a season when UK or Duke did not have an OAD center; that most likely would have been some season before 2012, which was, alas, Withey's first good season (along side TRob).
And none of them except Kaun, Withey and Embiid that were drafted turned out to be 5s.
Cole was 6-9, not the KU advertised 6-11. Cole was a flipping 4. Cole could not even stay in the L his first few seasons. It is not clear he can cut it now either. But if he does hang on in the NBA, it will be because of a shift to small ball and small bigs in the NBA, not because Cole was some how a legitimate footer, or near footer 5. 6-9 is as close to 6-6 as it is to 7-0. Cole is a Little Big Man. But he does, at least, have long arms and legs something less that a flamingo neck. So: he can at last play to whatever height he may actually be.
Kieff was a KU 6-10 (probably real life 6-9) 4 with a trey. Again, Kieff has been blessed by small ball, but he is hardly a force in the NBA.
Tar was a 6-9 wide body and a late bloomer that Self got in yet another transfer situation. Self had Tar the transfer 4, one season. We are not talking about an OAD, top 15 draft choice here either. We are talking about a guy that has had to have a lot of post draft breaks the right way just to barely hang on in the NBA.
Julian? 6-8 tweener. Flop.
Marcus? 6-7 tweener. Marcus who always wished to be a 3 has barely made an impact in the NBA until the last season or two, when he finally parlayed his uncanny (for his size) garbage man abilities, into a few journey man seasons.
Shady 6-9. Shady came to KU with a true 4 body and frankly such a floaty personality he benched himself and made himself a sub. He finally beat out the likes of 6-8 tweener D-Block, never seen as a 5 inside any mind but Bill Self's, who never really has been able to hang on in the NBA, and play-operable Sasha Kaun. Shady in the NBA has, shall we say, been as enigmatic as he was at KU.
During most of the Self era, and especially since the2008 ring team, KU has essentially been LITTLE BIG MAN U, except for Withey and Embiid. And of course Withey was in the rotation only two seasons, and Embiid was a project footer that only played 3/4s of one regular season and not a second of an NCAA tournament.
Again, there is little reason to think that Withey would have beaten out any of the OADs at other elite programs, as he has not beaten many of them out in the NBA, at least that I can recall so far.
And again, Embiid was a project that transferred high schools to avoid playing behind projected OAD Dakari "I haven't burned up D1" Johnson.
Embiid, despite may love, respect, and optimism about his fabulous potential, has essentially done nothing but suggest that he might do a lot. And at the end of the day, injuries are no excuse. Larry Bird played through a bad back starting the third year of his NBA career. If Bird had let injury slow him the way Embiid has, we would view Bird as one of the great might have beens, as we now increasingly do Embiid. Joel is facing a fork in the road. I believe he has done the right thing so far. He got his money and we still do not know how bad his back problems are, because his foot fractures have moved front and center. And he is right to try to get the foot fractures behind him and milk the contract as long as possible, while protecting the merchandize in hopes of "getting well." But Bird never got well. And Bird had many injuries in addition to his back problems. There comes a point where the great ones decide to play until the pain and deterioration literally force them to give up. And all players ultimately have to be judged on the entirety of their careers, including the lengthy portions of their careers they are encumbered with talent constraining injuries. Bird unquestionably would have been one of the 5 greatest players of all time had he not injured his back, but he DID injure his back. As a result, he is NOT one of the 5 greatest players of all time. Mickey Mantle obviously would have been one of the five greatest baseball players of all time had he not wrecked his knees. But he DID wreck his knees. At the end of any career, even during a career, its what did you get done with whatever you had to work with. Joel Embiid, frankly, hasn't gotten squat done, so Embiid the project when he was signed, and Embiid the guy that hasn't gotten squat done since because of injuries, doesn't remotely equate to even a Kaleb Tarciewski. And Embiid doesn't compare within the same basketball solar system with either Jeff Withey, or out in some galaxy with UK's exceptional, ring-winning unibrow OAD center, Anthony whatever his last name was. Embiid can't compare with Little Big Man Tyler Hansbrough, who at least won a ring in college, at least until Embiid does SOMETHING, ANYTHING.
The more I apply the scalpel to the reasoning of your post, the more stunning KU's actual big man deficit, especially since 2008 appears to grow.
The record Self, given how tough the schedules have been many of the seasons (not just a few), has fashioned with the lack of real big men he has had to work many seasons with in the face of the near constant abundance of big men that have cycled through the other elite programs is even more remarkable than I realized.
How has Self done it?
He hasn't been able to attract even a single OAD point guard in his entire tenure, except for Selby who jumped from Pearl's soon to explode ship in Knoxville to Self as a port in the storm. Selby was NOT going to play for Self had Pearl not imploded. And Self didn't even try to play Selby at point, because Selby was too TO prone with the rock, so we know Selby, though highly ranked, was not remotely in the same category as a Derek Rose-grade point guard, which Self has NEVER COME CLOSE to having. Self has really only had three even 5-star type point guard recruits in tenure: Chalmers, Sherron and EJ, and Sherron may have been a 4-star, because of how short he was. Chalmers, after an early flame out at the 1, played 2 the rest of his KU years. EJ really played only one season of point and he was operable. Only Sherron gave Self 3 seasons of starting PG luv. And by Sherron's last season his explosiveness was halved and he even wasn't drafted.
Think about this for a minute.
No OAD point guards, and only three credible 5s in 11 seasons: Kaun, Withey, and Embiid. Kaun was a project when signed. Kahn blew out both knees by the time he was a sophomore. Kaun apparently played operable his junior and senior seasons. By Kaun's senior season, Kaun's knees were so far gone he couldn't start, couldn't play a full game, and could neither clear the floor, nor rebound most of that senior season. He couldn't score. Period. He had stone hands and struggled his entire KU career catching post feeds. So with Kaun, Self had two years of a project in relatively good health. and two years of a 5 that couldn't do much more than guard the post.
Simien was a terrifically powerful and athletic 4 playing back to basket. He really doesn't count as a 5 at all. Wayne was the prototypical Little Big Man that Self would have to rely on so frequently in his KU tenure.
Shady was so inconsistent and so ambiguous in his roles in his seasons at KU that it is finally unrealistic to call him a 5 in any true sense of the work. Though seemingly a true 6-9 and very bouncy, and with a back to the basket game, as well as able to put it on the deck a little, he too was a Little Big Man; i.e., a true 4.
Witney, a true footer, he had to catch on transfer, gave him 2 good seasons of great defense and adequate rebounding and garbage scoring. Witney is really Self's zenith of Big Big Men, as opposed to his plethora of Little Big Men.
Self did have Cole Aldrich, a 4 in a face mask one season, playing 5, and a 4 with knee and mystery illnesses another season. Cole's junior season performance was decidedly disappointing. He could barely play 20 mpg much of the season. Much of that last season he was a hollowed out version of his sophomore season. He was drafted as high and as early as he was apparently because the NBA folks believed he could "get well." But getting well didn't help in the NBA. But Cole's NBA woes are not what is crucial to evaluating KU's big man deficiencies under Self. Self really had a good Cole one season. The second season, Self had a few stretches of good Cole, at most. And Cole was AT MOST 6-9.
Here is the bottom line about Little Big Man U.
Self beat every elite program in D1 and probably in the NBA to small ball, if by small ball we mean relying on Little Big Men, rather than footers and near footers with true 5-position skills.
Self has been playing Little Big Men that were none of them projected OADs coming in, except maybe Cliff Alexander, who was ONLY 6-8 after being stretched on a medieval rack.
He really got no healthy seasons out of Kaun after he was something more than a project.
Cole doesn't count, because he was only 6-9.
But if you insist on counting Cole, Self only had, say, 1.5 good and healthy seasons out of him.
Self did get 2 good, heathy Big Big Man seasons out of Withey--a true footer.
Self also did get 3/4 of a good, healthy Big Big Man season out of Embiid--a project footer.
And you might throw in one season of Kieff (his final one), if you want to fudge and call him a near footer, even though he always played like a Little Big Man 4, at whatever actual height he might have been at KU (likely 6-9 in earth inches rather than Self inches).
So: out of Self's 11 seasons, so far, Self sans OAD point guards, has had 5 3/4s seasons of Big Big Man healthy and producing as starters, IF AND ONLY IF one counts 6-9 Cole and 6-9 Kieff as Big Big Men, which seems a very questionable thing to categorize them as.
So: to be more valid in categorization, Self has had a grand total of 2 3/4 Big Big Man seasons from Withey and Embiid in Self's 11 seasons.
Compare this with other elite programs over that same period. And as you compare with the other elite programs, factor in that Self has had to rely on the likes of Landen Lucas and Jamari Traylor to one degree or another for one full season of rotation play and considerable starting. And it looks like there is a possibility that he may have to again, if Diallo doesn't get cleared.
Self has not been getting to .82 with a Big Big Man Game, and he has most certainly not been getting to it with projected OAD Big Big Men, and increasingly he is not getting there with 5-Star Big Big Men.
Self has been relying very, very, VERY heavily on a marvelous run of OAD 3s.
Alas, that run just stopped with Jaylen Brown defecting to Nike-Cuonzo and Nike-Cal and Professor Emeritus and sports institute founder Harry Edwards of undetermined brand lean.
Yo, Bill, you da man.
You doin' .82 with Little Big Men and an OAD point guard void and a long suit of trump at the 3.
Dis be summthin' dat da boys like da stack artistes--Konsonants and Gianni da Squid--like coulda not did even for a couple uh seasons.
Yo, Bill, keep at it.
Sooner or later da embargo, she gotta break.
Summmmthin' gotta shake loose sooners or laters.
What @Makeshift posted above bears a copy and paste.
@Makeshift said:
Gonzaga has a couple 7’1" 290 lb centers, one of whom (Karnowski) is pretty good. In addition to Gordon and Tarc, Arizona had Brandon Ashley and Grant Jerrett, both of whom are on NBA rosters. All KU needed last year was a big footer who could average 11 and 6 and be a defensive force (Karnowski), and none of the other “5’s” on the roster could manage that.
@Kcmatt7 said:
Zags also only have 2 bigs in the NBA.
Rationalizing again. What matters is what Zaga put on the floor last season and in recent seasons. Tiny PST located Zaga can field a four big man rotation of four actually big men, not tweeners and projects.
How many 5s has Self Era KU put in the NBA since Cole Aldrich, who has barely been able to hang on? Hmmm. The Morri? Nope. Marcus is 6-7. Kieff? Nope. He is a 4. Both are effectively tweeners. Kieff has faired well only because he is a trey baller. Kieff was not in the top of his recruiting class, either, was he? Kiev was a who you had to take to get tweener Marcus. Kieff blossomed so unexpectedly that Self wasn't even remotely prepared for him to jump to the NBA. Witney and Embiid are the only 5 KU has put in the L, right and Da Biid was a project that hasn't played even a quarter of a season yet. Period. And did I sez he was a project, when signed by KU. And he was injured at KU and apparently jumped early to the NBA remotely possibly to avoid showing the effects of the back injury during a second D1 season, and then his fractures started. Wait, there was Tar. Tar is a 6-9 4 that either didn't get drafted, or was drafted low. I can't recall. He has caught on in the NBA as a journeyman on his good days, right?
Compare the above measly trickle of second tier big man talent with the open valve rush of big man talent through Nike-UK, Nike-Duke, Nike-UNC, and maybe even Nike-Louisville and Nike-UA some years. I watched a couple UA games last season and they were drenched with at least four big men that would have turned every one of our big men last season into bench warmers. Hell, except for Perry, our big guys last season would only have been in the rotation at flipping Utah last season!!!! And likely not even have been in the rotation at Gonzaga!
@Kcmatt7 said:
Virginia has just had a perfect storm
Why can't KU have a perfect storm?
Why can Virginia continue to have a near perfect storm this season?
Why can't KU continue to have a near perfect storm this season?
Again, you are rationalizing here.
@Kcmatt7 said:
First of all. Bragg is a 5 star on almost every website. And no he won’t start.
First, posters here identified him as a 4-star on most sites, when he was signed, and his rank when he was signed is all that matters to this discussion. Embiid was a project when he was signed. He turned into perhaps the best pro center prospect in ten years in one season of work with good big man coaching. But he was still a project when signed. Key Point: KU is NOT (and has not been) signing non-project OADs 5s, or even 5-star 5's unencumbered by eligibility issues, or miscellaneous baggage, since Perry was signed. Period. You can try to polish this turd, but when you are done polishing, you are stuck with a shiny turd.
If Adidas is serious about upping market share, Calipari and UK are the place to start IMHO.
You don't hire choir boys to pursue regime change.
Stay poz.
Luck and bad breaks can explain quite a lot. They are a good explanation of why KU is being squeezed on big men.
It can't hurt to believe, while KU is being squeezed.
Whatever works.
Can't go there with you. KU is signing about a third to a half as much big man talent as Duke, UK and Arizona. Last season UK had four footers, plus several near folders. Duke outrecruited KU In the paint also. Virginia had eight players 6 feet eight or taller. Utah, Zaga and Louisville had more footers and near footers able to play than KU had. Embiid was a project when he was signed. The big red dog apparently came with baggage. Bragg is a four star that likely will not be a starter this season. diallo may not play at all. KU rotated projects Lucas and Traylor last season and maybe this. If this isn't squeezed, WTF is?
Thanks for the datum. Hmm. Did he commit in August of 2013 to start play in October of 2013? Or in October 2014? If October of 2013 he sounds like a late signee. But it appears you mean he was to play October of 2014, so he seems to refute the hypothesis, as you say.
So: Mudiay was signed by Larry Brown, who was trying to rebuild SMU from a pretty low foundation left by Matt Dougherty, if I recall correctly.
Maybe LB, in rebuild mode, thought Mudiay was worth the risk early, or late.
Maybe the hypothesis needs to have an additional driver the would be program mode; i.e., is the program in rebuild mode, in which case it will take risks on OAD prospects with shaky transcripts early or late, and established programs will tend to take risks on OAD prospects with shaky transcripts only late.
Or alternatively, the hypothesis needs to isolate OAD prospects with shaky transcripts and other miscellaneous issues as being signed early or late by any program in any mode.
Interesting modeling issue.
@HighEliteMajor tossed a mind grenade late in a recent post that made me ask the question posed in the title of this post. Specifically HEM wrote:
"Now, if he [Self] signed Diallo in November and it cost him other guys without eligibility issues, sure, different conversation."
In the context of the rest of HEM's post, HEM was saying that Self may as well have taken a risk on Diallo, because it was late in the recruiting season and he had not yet signed enough inside help, so why not take a flyer on Diallo.
HEM's logic was sound as usual.
But it also made me wonder, if certain players with eligibility issues tend to wait to sign late, precisely because coaches are not wanting to take on those eligibility issues until they have had their cuts at all of the players without such issues?
Maybe everyone else already recognized this possible dynamic of early vs. late signees, but I had not.
Bragg was good, but not an instant franchise player, and apparently had a solid transcript and he signed early.
Diallo was reputed to be an instant impact player, and reputedly had a shaky transcript and signed late.
Until now, I had tended to view late signees solely as the best players waiting till the last second to make the best possible choice for themselves regarding roster fits, and perhaps regarding downstream Big Shoe-Big Agent deals.
Now I hypothesize the late signees as breaking into two categories instead of just one.
Category 1--the relatively rare signee type that really is super good; that really does have a clean transcript; and who is actually waiting to find the best roster fit and the best down stream Big Shoe-Big Agent fit, because of how much value he adds to a team and how little eligibility risk he poses.
Category 2--the frequent signee type that is anywhere from super good to pretty good that has a very shaky transcript that coaches are willing to take a flyer on only late in the recruiting period, when they have struck out on all the top reliable transcript players. (Note: they may offer these players early, but they are rarely signed early.)
I haven't followed recruiting nearly as closely as some here have for several seasons now. My question for those following recruiting closely is: do historical signings the last few seasons (the stacking era starting 2012) support this hypothesis or refute it?
If it were to be supported at KU, would it be supported at other elite programs?
If it were supported, it would add a lot of insight to expectations regarding future late signees.
Basically, it would mean that most early signees are a bird in the hand, while most late signees pose the risk of a bird in the bush.
P.S.: Adidas best move may be to offer UK say $200m to change to Adidas. Calipari appears to be being squeezed on talent at Nike-UK for not winning enough. Drive another wedge in there.
Adidas signing Harden for unprecedented bones changes the decision horizon for all Nike leans for a time. It signals there maybe more where that came from, if one changes to Adidas early.
But Nike has shown it has painful countermoves each time Adidas has sharply spiked endorsement offers.
The talent gap between top Nike programs and top Adidas programs appeared at an all time high last season. Adidas' crown jewel basketball program--Adidas-KU--was down to starting two projects in the paint. Adidas-UCLA, in the biggest pool of local talent in the country, could not field near as much talent as UA! Adidas-UL's Pitino was grousing about asymmetric talent pools. And the UW near miracle was accomplished by a coach leaving the game snArling about rent-a-players.
Adidas apparently thinks there is some magic number of NBA stars it can sign that will stampede Nike's stable top to bottom.
But is there?
A similar effect has occurred briefly each time Adidas has upped the level of offers sharply. A few high school players change leans, but not a lot.
This game of using a bidding war with a few stars to destabilize Nike's stable of many young players seems to hinge on how deep Adidas' pockets are? This is why I always come back to stock ownership structure and the Euro depression. If Adidas stock ownership structure includes an investor with access to on-going, untraceable Fed bailout monies, and if the Euro recovery starts, then Adidas can play this game quite awhile longer and it might work.
But Nike has so many counter moves it will be tough to destabilize suddenly.
And how long can KU hold out without credible bigs before Nike can establish a good coach and a stack in the B12 to do to KU what UA has done to UCLA?
BIA is looking for volunteers to be air dropped onto Marsha's forehead and do some recon on this new infraction.
Here's the deal: the NCAA and member institutions, plus Big Shoe, Big Agent, Big Media and Big Gaming are not getting nearly enough out of their players playing on scholarships.
The players only play 35-40 games per season plus 2 exhibition games, plus international competitions. And they are being housed, fed, weight trained, and educated the year round. The NCAA and its member institutions with their enormous TV and shoe contracts and their gate receipts are getting screwed by these free loading college basketball players hanging on for years trying to get degrees. And these red-shirt transfers that sit and develop their skills for a season without attracting an eye ball or a click are just intolerable.
It is time to put these red-shirt transfers to work by god!!!
Every D1 program should start up a team of Red Shirt transfers. Whatever extra players they require could be drawn from their regular season non-rotation players, too. The team would participate in a National Red Shirt Transfer Tournament to be held during the month of August between the international competition season of June-July and before the start of school.
This Red Shirt Transfer Tournament could be branded with something catchy like the August Angst, or the Late Summer Lunacy. This would energize much more interest in recruiting transfers. The single elimination tournament--with every D1 program invited--would be televised round the clock early on for the games involving 300 plus teams and it would be held in various gambling meccas across the USA.
The early round games would be played entirely at Indian Casinos. The court would be surrounded by gaming tables. Folding chairs would be set up beyond the tables for paying fans. The early intermediate rounds would be held at cruddy big city gambling casinos in Detroit, Cleveland, Colorado Springs, Cripple Creek, Denver, Dead Wood, Tunica, Cinncinatti, Memphis, Mobile, Newark, Trenton, Black Hawk, Laughlin, San Diego, Pensacola, Gulfport, etc. Late intermediate round games would be held in slightly more traditional gambling meccas like Atlantic City, Reno, and Lake Tahoe. The Final Four would of course be held in Las Vegas.
The really neat twist in this Red Shirt Transfer tournament is that teams and players and coaches would be allowed to bet on themselves, or for other teams, individuals and coaches. This would really spike the unpredictability of game outcomes and thrill fans with the genuine unpredictability of how each game will be thrown. Even referees will be allowed to bet on the games and throw games which ever way they want.
In the Final Four, each team and its fan base will be allowed one Mafia style hit each on a player or assistant coach of their choosing. Legalized Mafia style hits would be a first for sporting events and be sure to stimulate cross over fans from other sports, especially cock and dog fighting.
The Red Shirt Transfer Tournament--It is Gamble-tastic!!!!!!
(Note: all fiction. No malice.)
The BIA also is looking for field agents with coaching backgrounds that are retired in order to develop connections with retired coaches around the country. The BIA believes retired coaches represent a largely untapped source of intelligence about recruiting. We believe what they know is currently going down the memory hole and not being exploited. I am authorized to double whatever your are not making right now, and promise COLA increases on it.
BIA = Basketball Intelligence Agency.
It is an off the shelf, 501.c3 black agency run entirely on black monies laundered through betting on 10 Euro maximum bets through Italian professional basketball books via fast fiber exploits between the NYSE and the Bologna Stock Exchange.
It has no bricks and mortar facilities. It is a virtual entity. It pays no salaries. @jaybate 1.0 is the director and janitor. @VailHawk and @Crimsonorblue22 are case officers running agency operations in the field. BIA doesn't pay bigger salaries than any other basketball intel operation in the world. If you agree to come to work for BIA, I am authorized not to pay you more than any other basketball intelligence agency out there. Our main activity is collecting basketball intelligence intended to give KU basketball an unfair advantage over all other programs-- especially UK.
We are an equal opportunity employer.
Yesssssss!!!!! Music to my stochastic ears!!!!!!
1 trey every 12 seconds. No one would have a chance against us.
Work with me on this, coach.
Bill might listen to another coach.
Maybe ask Bill James to run some numbers on this, too. Do a basketball abstract.
And Joe Dooley. Self would trust his stats. Maybe you know someone that knows Joe Do. Get him to run the numbers on shooting a trey every 12 seconds!!!!!!!
We have to couch this in language Bill understands and respects.
Talk about the ball not sticking!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Talk about emphasizing defense.
Offense? We don't need no stinking offense.
We just take a trey within 12 seconds of inbounding, rebound like men, and get back like men, and guard like men.
This leads to MORE possessions and time for playing Self Defense and getting STOPS!
A KU team can literally shoot its way out of a slump in one half with this many three point attempts.
Women will find all KU men more attractive!!!
BILL SELF BREAKS JOHN WOODEN'S RECORD FOR CONSECUTIVE RINGS WITH FAST TWITCH TREYS AND SELF DEFENSE.
Bill Ball = coin of the realm.
Everything has changed but the way we think.
We can refine this further.
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Perimeter treys = 3 possible points always.
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Midrange jumpers = 2 possible points most of the time unless Bad Ball is used to shrink the impact zone to a point one can draw fouls in the mid range shooting zone.
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Low post scoring and iron driving = possible 3 points much of the time.
Inference: to maximize your potential scoring, you want to take as few midrange jumpers as possible, when playing anything other than Bad Ball.
One of the reasons Bad Ball worked so well is that it turned the mid range shooting zone into a much higher probability of a 3 point play. By continually driving into defenders at all five positions everywhere on the court, the shrunken impact space and the pressure of going all the way to the rim made it easier for KU's drivers to pull up short in the mid range zone and take their jump shots jumping INTO the defender, thus drawing more fouls than normal in the midrange. In turn, as the game wore on, more and more opposing defenders were playing with more fouls and having to lay off more, which opened up both the outside trey, and the drive to iron.
Any chance Josh is Canadian, or is otherwise off shore in his roots?
Whatever the reason, adidas-KU and adidas-Self rarely seem to be able to turn domestic Nike leans to signed adidas-KU players.
He will benched if he does NOT shoot a trey.
This is the season we try initiating EVERY possession with a trey.
The only twos taken will be on second shots.
:neckbeard: