Is there any way the Aussie could decommit? :-)
Didn't two of LSU's good players decide to jump?
jaybate 1.0
10346 posts
Any one that's good that wants to come and play for KU I am excited to have join the squad, if they will make the squad net better.
We are trying to build the best team we can with the best players we can attract given the rules as they are.
There are trade offs to any player at any level of talent and length of stay.
Board rats are having a lot of trouble with this issue, because it is apparent that teams can get to the Final Four and win the tournament without OADs and with them.
What I would ask everyone to remember is that Self is not making a choice between OADs and 20-50 ranked players.
He is making a choice based on what he thinks his team needs and he is choosing among what is available.
Self proved seasons 1 through 9 that he could do exactly what Bo Ryan and Tom Izzo have done this season. He could go deep and win it once and finish second, and get to the elite 8 and sweet 16 twice in 9 tries. But by his 9th season, there was a realization that the recruiting constraints were going to permit coaches like Cal to stack teams with OADs--first with five, then with 10.
Self has incrementalized into this process.
He started without OADs.
Then he tried adding one to supplement a nucleus.
What Self realized that most of us did not, was that once this move to OADs began to spread, Cal was going to move 10 and other coaches like Coach K and Sean Miller were going to move to 5-10, and very shortly, there weren't going to be any draft choice type players--players like Rush, Chalmers, Shady, BenMac, Simien, the Morri, and so on, left to build a team with a traditional nucleus class of guys that would mature into draft choices.
In other words, the vacuum upwards was not going to just suction OADs up to the top few schools, but it was going to suction TADs, also. And Self reasoned rightly IMHO, that it would not stop at TADs.
The NBA drafts potential.
The schools that cater to OADs are recruiting potential to serve the NBA.
The only limit to who with potential Cal will sign is 13 scholarships.
I suspect Self figured that it would only take 10 schools--two in each of the five power conferences--shifting over to signing OADs each season, to vacuum up the top 130 players and Self would then find himself trying to build NCAA champions at a school that demanded them, without access to any of the draft choice grade players, even AFTER he got done coaching them up.
Clearly Self and KU's adidas-agent complex relationship has not yet been able to produce more than three reputed OADs in a season.
But that at least means KU has some draft choice grade players on his club each season.
If he does not enter this sweepstakes, the nature of competition will lead in time to KU not having ANY draft choice grade players even after he coaches'em up for 4-5 seasons.
And remember that all of Self's best teams have had draft choice grade players.
This is why I believe Self has moved as he has.
If the adidas-agent complex could produce 5 OADs per season, I believe he would have that many already.
And I believe Rick Pitino would, too.
Tom Izzo maybe old enough that he does not wish to go that route, but I suspect you will see Tom loading up on more and more to as his roster spots open up. Tom is after all with Nike.
Interesting angle.
OAD Tar became 4AD Tar--on a Nike stack that never won a ring. A very overrated prospect.
Villanueva bcam a part of the Calhoun corruption. Cannot recall if he won a ring and Calhoun then appeared to use sick leave to manage ncaa inquiries.
OAD Jones became a TAD that road the coat tails of reputed Anthony Unretracted Chicago Newspaper $100K Pay to Play Allegation and the fabulous Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Marcus TeAgue--real OADs.
The misses I recall most were:
Derek Rose--imagine that 08 ring team with Rose taking his own SAT!!!!!
John Wall--I misjudged how good he was. At KU he would have made us another ring for sure!!
The more I think about this subject the more I suspect it must take huge INCENTIVES to keep these guys from coming to KU!!!!!
WHAT KIND OF ELITE BIG MAN WOULD NOT HAVE WANTED TO PLAY WITH FRANK, KELLY, DEVONTE, WAYNE, BRANNEN AND PERRY LAST SEASON, OR NEXT? THEY ARE A RING TEAM WAITING FOR AN ELITE 5!
Two bigs and on perimeter player--will the board rats be happy, or down that Self did not sign 3-5 year players?
Is Cliff attending classes?
That seems a key question to answer?
Since Self has signed two each the last season, it seems likely he will at least match that this season, since he has holes to fill at the 3 and the 5. To paraphrase Coach Self, KU has to get some more scoring in the post.
Whether KU signs any OADs appears to depend significantly on whether the adidas-agent complex has any unsigned OADs remaining in any of their sponsored power AAU teams. There probably are some, so I would assume Self will sign at least two, as he has the last two seasons.
But I also thought Oubre would stay, so my divining rod is obviously not totally efficient. :-)
What would we do if Coach Self signs no OADs?
I suspect he will turn up some non OAD bigs, probably two more after Bragg. I suspect one would come from Mike Fratello's and Bob Hill's Eurasian team that sent us Svi. I suspect he would be fairly bulky fellow of the type of Gonzaga's bigs. I suspect the other would be graduated transfer of considerably girth, too. Our two returning bigs--Jamari and Landen, would be well supplemented by two big lugs.
I also think that Wayne, if he were not displaced by an OAD 2, or 3, would develop into a fairly consistent player next season capable of playing the 3 for us, and I believe Brannen Greene will become consistent for us at the 2 or 3 next season also.
Really, we are in pretty good shape for next season on the perimeter.
But we really need either an elite 5, or a pair of big bruisers, at the 5, to make the team as viable as other teams that went deep this season.
Thanks for posting this.
Playing through injury requiring surgery to rectify it has always kind of disturbed me, even when part of me may marvel at the ability of the player to do it and still perform usefully.
I have a hunch that one day in the future our culture will look back at this convention of playing with injury requiring surgery, as being about as foolish as football coaches back in my childhood withholding water from football players until AFTER practice in order to toughen us up.
And I just posted a response a few seconds ago that goes like this:
Search me. What I try to do is assume that in this complicated and not very transparent (to fans anyway) D1 environment that what goes on is probably legal, because there is so much money at stake and so much money to hire good lawyers to find technically legal exploits of the rules. For example, I try to believe that everything going on with recruiting including the anomalies are legal, whether or not they are asymmetric in their effects. I try to leave the illegal stuff to the authorities because I am just a fan.
Search me. What I try to do is assume that in this complicated and not very transparent (to fans anyway) D1 environment that what goes on is probably legal, because there is so much money at stake and so much money to hire good lawyers to find technically legal exploits of the rules. For example, I try to believe that everything going on with recruiting including the anomalies are legal, whether or not they are asymmetric in their effects. I try to leave the illegal stuff to the authorities because I am just a fan.
Remember a few years ago, there was reputedly a movement of "right way" coaches that included active and former coaches like Bill Self, Coach K, Bob Knight, Rick Pitino, Billy Donovan, Rick Barnes, Tom Crean, Tom Izzo, Ben Howland, Norm Roberts, and Larry Brown and a few others I cannot recall right now. I never heard Bo Ryan or Tom Izzo use the term "the right way," but I always felt they were walking the talk of the movement--despite the hard edged, take no prisoners ball they played.
Some, like the coaching emeritus Bob Knight, reputedly openly questioned the ethics of John Calipari at Kentucky.
The apparently informal movement seemed to be a group of coaches that appeared to be trying to do two things.
They were trying to clean up the rising violence in the game, even though some among them were making use of violent and cheap shotting play themselves.
The other thing they seemed to be trying to do was to reduce some of the influence on the recruiting process of AAU coaches, agents and agent runners.
I don't want to mislead board rats. It was not a formal, or even a well-defined informal movement with a web site and every coach wearing a "right way" pin. But it was a group of coaches that when interviewed would use the phrase "the right way" to describe the way the tried to do things.
"We try to win the right way."
"We try to play the right way."
"We aren't perfect, but we are trying to recruit the right way."
"We are trying to graduate our players."
And so on.
The implication of the "right way" phrase was that there was a "wrong way" being used out there.
The "wrong way" was never delineated by them very clearly. It was almost as though they were trying NOT to define it.
To a fan like me, it seemed a new and hopeful reform movement in the greatest game ever invented, at a time when the NCAA, the Chancellors, and the Athletic Directors seemed unwilling, or unable to act to reform the game.
Now, it seems I never hear any of the coaches talking about "the right way" anymore.
And it seems that a number of the "right way" coaches, like Norm Roberts and Ben Howland and Rick Barnes have been forced out of their coaching jobs, Bob Knight seems to have been marginalized as an announcer, and Coach K has conspicuously seemed to become the first among the "right way" group to break and become a hoarder of a postiively Caliparian number of OAD/TADs on his Duke roster--reputedly 9.
The other right way" coaches seemed to be caught a little off guard, by Coach K's leap into near chemical levels of OAD/TAD dependence. They have appeared to be scrambling somewhat awkwardly to catch-up,
I miss hearing coaches talk about trying to do it "the right way."
I miss the idea that there might be a "right way."
I fear we may have entered a dark age.
Perhaps there should be a new ESPN sports channel that shows the games in harsh, high contrast black and white.
Everyone that goes to the games in arenas filled with eSmoke could wear fedoras, place bets on cell phones in brushed metal safety cases, and make references to having just come home from the latest pre-emptive resource war, and talk about just desperately wanting make one score so they can runaway with some femme fatale to some cabin out in a small town where no one can find them, except the very killers they are trying to elude.
Call it Ballnoir.
Do you know a good proctologist?
Ah, yes, but is Oubre really going to jump?
I am not yet convinced of that, unless he has announced and I have missed it.
IMHO, fans need to understand that there appears an underlying reason that elite coaches probably love the OAD process, even though some say they don't apparently for public consumption. It appears that heavy reliance on OADs massively leverages a coach's negotiating power with his employer--the university athletic department. Anytime a Chancellor, an AD, or an alumni movement, start feeling like getting rid of, or feel like not giving a raise to, or not giving an an extension, to a coach that relies heavily on OADs, he can just threaten to take next years 3-5 OADs to his next school. Coaches that rely on OADs/TADs up to the level of 5-10 on a roster basically appear to own their employer. How can UK fire, or force out, or even reign Cal in? It appears he could move to Texas right now and UK would literally implode for the next five years at least. Cal leaving UK might be way worse than a near death sentence by the NCAA.
Same with Coach K.
Once Self gets a roster of 5 OADs it is probably too late to negotiate anything with Bill Self. Once he gets a roster of 10 OAD/TADs, everything with him could become literally non negotiable. Getting to 10 OAD/TADs is like getting to the back line in checkers and getting kinged.
OADs are the ultimate moveable feast.
With 5-10 coming in every year, you can go undefeated and win a ring at Vassar your first season at your new school.
And the university left behind?
It has a huge sucking sound of a giant athletic budget's monthly nut that will no longer be serviced without going to alumni, or regents, with their hands out.
The only seemingly completely safe job in America is Head Coach of an elite basketball program with a roster of 10 OAD/TADs and contacts to keep the dump trucks backing up to the athletic housing, where ever the coach decides to work.
Of course as history teaches, all completely safe bets depend on some underlying conditions not changing.
Whomever controls the dump trucks backing up to the athletic housing that dump the 5-10 new OADS each season, are really who is running the show, aren't they?
The coaches are like lackey kings.
A lackey king is, within his kingdom, quite powerful.
But it is the owner of the dump trucks, and who decides what they carry that might be the real power over the throne set upon by the lackey king.
So far that issue remains opaque.
If there are rumors of Self going to Okie State, then:
a.) Self must be very near to signing his first 3-5 OAD class, and those that don't want to have to compete with him on a level playing field are desperately spinning (Shoe Brand-Agent Complex Effect) ; or
b.) Self's folks are getting old, and he wants to be near them the rest of the way (Roy Effect); or
c.) the same folks that dumped the baloney news story about WWW controlling all of sport and paying refs are at it again!!!!
Anyone is possible, but I think Bill Self likes that amazing things happen in Allen Field House. Its a great place to go to work every day.
@drgnslayr and @sfbahawk
Brannen will be back, no doubt about it.
Why?
Because he and his dad understand that the minute that an elite post man surfaces at KU, Brannen will be a 20-30 minute man shooting tons of open look treys at 46% and be propelled into the NBA either after next season, or the following one.
The only reason for Brannen to leave would be if no elite big man shows and an OAD or two on the perimeter sign.
Elite post men are complemented by great corner shooters. Brannen is a great corner shooter. Brannen was supposed to have played a ton this past season, because Embiid was supposed to have been here, or Self was supposed to have landed an elite big man. KU is the place to come to develop your defense to go along with whatever NBA level skill you possess. Brannen's NBA skill is his trey fired from a 6-7 platform. With the proper defensive skills, Brannen is adapted to the NBA, or to the Euro leagues, not if not.
But Self can't play him a ton in a drive ball offense with no bigs to collapse the defense.
So, Mr. Greene said exactly the right thing: hell yeah Brannen is coming back.
Brannen can always bail out over the summer, if no elite big man shows up.
And as some recent links suggest, KU is not out of the hunt for Zimmerman.
With Self and recruiting, it ain't over till its over.
And with adidas apparently starting to flex its muscles a bit, the fat lady is doing a few more voice exercises right now before she sings.
Its apparently going to get rather more interesting than it appeared for awhile.
Good news about Zimmerman. Wouldn't it be awesome if Zimmerman and another big show up with Bragg in the front court, and a couple OADs in the back court show also, for next season. I would love to see Self get the chance he deserves; i.e., to coach against Cal and K with the same kind of talent. When he had comparable talent in 2008, he won the ring. When he had half the the talent in 2012, he got to the finals. He is a great, great coach that deserves a shot at competing with the same level of talent.
In the story during the season in which Rick Pitino talked about the influence of agents and agent runners on player's choices about shoe brand contracted programs, Pitino indicated more or less at the end that the NCAA had indicated to him that it had no problems with what was going on with the issues he had noted, and so he indicated he had no problems with things either. What his remarks appeared to suggest to me was that agents and agent runners influences he had been referring to were now just a regular part of the process and that coaches were going to have to adapt accordingly. Hope that helps.
Classic!
Howling!!
OADs are not bad. UK and Duke prove that. Keeping them healthy and in large supply is the trick. They get hurt easily, because they are young and green.
Oubre's knee was apparently hurt first third and last third of the season, but they appear unwilling to talk about this for fear of injuring his draft status.
A healthy Oubre would have performed all season as he did in the middle third.
We need all the OADs the adidas-agent complex can provide plus any we can strip off the Nike-agent complex dump truck.
Things are settled into a new equilibrium and now it's just good old elbow grease recruiting expoiting the Dakari Johnsons missing millions and selling our positives.
This appears what Rick Pitino was trying to tell everyone. The NCAA has normalized the new system and so now everyone has to start playing the new wAy, not waiting for UK to be hammered. Duke was the first to adapt. KU will catch up next. Bet on it.
I wonder if the quick hook is a real difference between Self and other coaches, or if board rats just watch Self more closely?
And if it were real, I wonder if the actual reason for it were that KU is usually more talented than our opponents and so opposing coaches are NOT using their games against KU as teaching games, where they give their lesser players teaching minutes? What if when TTECH plays lesser teams in pre-con Tubby is using a quick hook like Self? Tubby has a pretty quick hook even against KU though.
You are right that mpg can be deceiving. UK only gave its draft choice bench 20 minutes when it didn't matter.
But as you say even 9 was huge for Self and most elite coaches!
I think Self adapted to his talent and injuries and to the greater energy demands of Bad Ball.
Self always turns out to be ahead of the curve on stuff like this.
Self expanded what Bo Ryan and Izzo ran into full blown BAD BALL.
And young players playing drive ball is always going to mean more injuries and so longer benches and more quick hooks.
As usual Self is ahead of the game and it's driving board rats nuts trying to keep up.
Maybe Self has moved into "long bench ball", while everyone else is talking about Calipari's phony spin about two platoon ball? Ten guys averaged ten mpg this year for KU. And Self never really shortened his bench this season. On the other hand, Cal talked two platoons, but only did it, when the games were blow outs in regular season. In the tourney he usually short benched, leaving a platoon of draft choices benched and NBA franchises wondering if they were worth drafting. Imagine how much better off Dakari Johnson would have been at KU than UK. He would be a star going in top 5 instead of a nobody at UK waiting another season. And he would be developing--getting better.
KOME BACK KELLY!!!!
TEA LEAF TIMEâPOWER FORWARD
On the surface, this tea cozy covered pot seems the one with the fewest leaves to read.
The short form appears to be: Perry Ellis, master designer and stretch 4, comes back for a dominant senior season and that is the end of this prediction.
But you knew the âbate just wouldnât let well enough alone, right?
Tea leaves sometimes have second order interpretations, at least possibilities, right?
Okay, so, suffusers and spoons to the ready, chaps, blame this one on @HighEliteMajor, okay, but not quite yet?
First, independent of the HEM-meister, it occurs to me that unless Self signs an elite footer, or some kind of formidable Tarik Black-plug-and-play-graduated-transfer type, that Self will be facing a re-dreaming of his worst nightmare; this past seasonâs no back to basket scoring offense. Put another way, he could be looking at Monty Pythonâs All Mobile Big Man Attack Platform Driving Circus again.
Doe Self really want that? Not.
But unless the Thon from Thonotron realizes his destiny is with Lovellette, Chamberlain, Manning, and Embiid (who are these pussies that think KU is no longer Big Man U?), that is exactly what Self is facing.
And, while he is facing it, recall that Self loves a draft choice 3 and a stretch 4 almost as much as he loves Cin, and that appears to be no small amount.
So: this is where you start blaming @HighEliteMajor, who fog lifted me with his caffeinated assertion that all tea leaf dynamic analyses by yours truly aside, Oubre was jumping, period.
So, I sez, âbate, it was kind of a long shot prediction and so youâve got to play take what he gives you and transition with it, while you noodle in your inner world about optimal trey attempts and ideal actions for MAKING optimal percentages of treys. Youâve got to stay with this Power Forward forecasting consistent with sound, logical HEMâs assertion that Oubre can no more be on the roster next season than Kate Hudson in a kulotte with an adidas hip stripe.
So what might a piecing it together genius like Self do in order to hit his marks on the stage of the 12th title pursuitâhis marks being a draft choice 3 and a stretch 4 in lieu of an elite 5, or insanely, maybe even with one?
How might he achieve a draft choice 3 and a stretch 4 on a team with no returning draft choice 3, no known incoming OAD 3, and Perry Ellis of the 39.1% trifecta efficiency for a big, but only 45.7% FG inefficiency for a big stretch type 4, baby?
A little voice speaking seemingly in a non sequitur whispered: my son is coming back, my son is coming back.
And then the box collapsed around me and I stepped out.
The voice belonged to Brannen Greeneâs no doubt estimable fatherâa man with his son, not just Georgia, on his mind.
âbate, donât even go thereâŚdonât even think about what I believe you may be about to think about.
It is too late.
Blame it on HEM.
Perry will be once again our best player next season.
And he proved he could play the 3 by playing the stretch 4.
And he is our best athlete among our players 6-6 or taller.
And he could guard a three anywhere as well as he guards a 4 inside, or a stretch 4 outside.
And he canât play back to the basket if his life depended on it.
But he can drive it and handle the ball, and pass it well, and hit open looks till the cows of Wichita come home to Greg Marshallâs old house before he left a for sale sign in the front yard and moved to Alabama to live with an accent he understands.
No, âbate, donât do it! DONâT SAY IT!!
It is too late.
Blame it on HEM.
Perry is the only potential draft choice 3 Self can possibly have. Wayne is not a draft choice 3. He is a back up 3, maybe. Svi is not a draft choice 3 next season. He will be needed at the 2 to drive it and take treys, as god intended all 2s to do in BAD BALL.
No, no, no, no, no, no, NO, âbate, this has an @HighEliteMajor conniption written all over it. Stop it, stop it, stop it, STOP IT!!!!!!!!!
It isâŚoh, never mind. I will just get on with the blaspheming. Okay?
Perry moves to the 3, as I have secretly been conspiring with ONI, CIA, NSA, MI-5&6, and Mossad since Perryâs freshman season to bring about. I can only say that microwave mind control devices are already being planted in Selfâs residence and office, as we speak, to enable precisely this.
Perry moves to 3 andâŚ
No, no, no, no, no, no, NO, âbate, your are HURTING US!!!!!!!!!!
Brannen Greene, who is probably as tall as Perry Ellis, spends the spring and summer in Hudy land and comes out looking like Andrew White III only more mobile and athletic and becomes our HYPER STRETCH 4. He rebounds a little less than Perry, but his bad footwork is masked by only having to stand around guarding power forwards on defense, which on the other end of the floor he runs into the cracks in the floors by constantly traversing the three point apron and making 46% of his treys, and so being pretty much able to drive it at will for as many short treys as he wants, as he makes practically every free throw. And of course Perryâs open looks from trey dramatically increase and his make rate increases sharply because he is not having to play so much chase as he did at stretch 4. Perry averages 42% from trey, plus he just takes his opponent to iron any time he wants to, because Brannen has pulled the other teamâs four completely away from the basket leaving Perry free to drive on the opponent's 5 and dish to whomever is open.
In short order the combination of Perry and Brannen trey bombing at a blended average of 44%, and driving on the post man remaining in the paint, lead to a completely fouled up pair of opposing bigs AND a 15-18 point lead. Outcomes Perry, in comes Wayne, and outcomes Brannen, and incomes Jam Tray, and we defend the lead with Frank and Svi driving and trey bombing at 42%, while Jam Tray and Landen, or Jam Tray and whomever else is around, clog up the middle as much as possible.
I have a dreamâŚ
I say to you today, my board rats, so even though we face the difficulties of today and tomorrow, I still have a dream. It is a dream deeply rooted in the Jayhawk dream.
I have a dream that one day this nation will rise up and live out the true meaning of its three point creed: "We hold these truths to be self-evident: that all trey balling men are created equalâthat not one is shooting foolâs gold."
I have a dream that one day on the red hills of Georgia the sons of former jump hookers and the sons of former back to basket turn around j shooters will be able to sit down together at the table of brotherhood and say Brannen Greene made the world safe for trifectation.
I have a dream that one day even the state of Kansas, a state sweltering with the heat of three point injustice, sweltering with the heat of three point oppression, will be transformed into an oasis of open 24 foot looks and corner shots.
I have a dream that KUâs 8 man rotation will one day live in a Jayhawk nation where they will not be judged by the speed of their drives, or their inside trey percentage but by the content of their made treys.
I have a dream...
National Championships are the only thing that matter in the Madness. I don't give a whit about whether we are finalists or out in the round of 64, except that I have more love for the team that survives so long and more games to have fun watching.
But going deep can create experience that the next year's team can take and turn into an edge for a ring.
This is why I agree with Self.
Do whatever it takes to win the conference to assure getting in the Madness in the best starting position possible.
Then gamble everything on winning each cluster of two games, because nothing else matters.
Send'em out flat for the first and amp for the second, or vice versa based on match ups.
If you lose in the 64th or 32rd, or the 16 or the 8, or the 4 or the two, it doesn't matter.
I really don't care about losing in the round of 64, or the finals, except that earlier exits mean less fun.
Winning the ring is all that matters, regarding the tournament.
Winning conference every season means a lot to me, because it means dominating your turf.
Winning is a spatial concept, as the NCAA is set up. You have to beat people where you are in order to beat still other people for the championship wherever it is.
This is not rocket science.
Win three two game tournaments however you can.
Find them, engage them with as much force as possible, and keep moving on, as US Grant said.
Have superior force.
Apply it in greatest concentration possible.
Bring a gun to a knife fight.
Bring a bomb to a gun fight.
Bring a nuke to a conventional bombing.
Rock Chalk!!!!
HOWLING!
@drgnslayr said:
Maybe their recruits actually think they'll get developed there regardless of PT?
We didn't get the elite post man recruits when Danny Manning was assisting.
We don't get the elite big man recruits when Danny Manning is not assisting, except a freakish project from Cameroon stolen out from under Donovan that surprised everyone and developed in one season instead of 3.
UK's players show zero signs of development and dump trucks back up to UK's athletic housing and dump at least two elite big man recruits a season, so that now they are able to maintain a rotation of 4 footers that are draft choices. Dakari Johnson was way better than Joel Embiid, when they were both recruits. Dakari Johnson sits on the bench in Lexington still, even as Joel is clipping coupons and rehabbing his back.
Everything about coming to KU is better from a player's development and PT stand point, but still elite 5s want to go sit on the bench in Lexington? Something is WRONG with this picture of the UK iceberg in Lexington. But what?
It is almost comical. When KU builds this new housing, the dump trucks will still back up to Lexington and dump out two each season to maintain the four draft choice footers not developing in Lexington.
"Houston, we have a problem."
That picture of Mike Thorne Jr. sends me into @stupidmichael waves scared!!!!!!!
Look at the black lingerie on the knees!!!!!
OH. MY. GAWD!!!!!!!!
Imagine if KUAD had not blown $6M on buying Turner Gill out and $3.5M x ?yrs buying out Charlie "The Catholic Holy Trinity Only Knows Why He Was Hired and Bought Out" Weiss, KUAD could now give John Lucas a contract in perpetuity?
Imagine if John Calipari could coach a lick, and if his assistants COULD develop players how big the point spreads would be over every team that does not have 10 draft choices on its roster?
Imagine how big the winning margins would be if Bo Ryan, or Bill Self, or Ratso Izzo had 10 draft choices on their rosters?
"Imagine all the people living life in peace..."
You have it close.
He has cornerstones that get to play through slumps, injuries and the 1/3 bad biorhythms games. He has building blocks, or glue types that have to play well or he tries others. And he has trim pieces that only get to do what 1 thing he asks of them and are quick hooked for any mistake. It is a caste system that doesn't change much in a season, except by XTReme injury, or very rare misreading of how fast someone like Embiid develops, or Svi implodes.
I think since it has won 82% of his games, 11 titles and a ring, it is one way that works. Not the only way.
Self clearly believes teams can accomplish more than individuals, and that team roles need clear definition to be gotten better at, and young players benefit from avoiding bad habits before contributing substantially.
It means slower individual starts but stronger and longer builds to team goals.
Agreed.
I don't see Wayne jumping. I see him cutting back to a defensive specialist backing up the 2 and 3, unless he starts very strong, consistent, and efficient from the beginning.
The guys we have to worry most about are Frank and Devonte. Frank really looked degraded at the end. Significant leg issues on bob legs--Can he get his pop back?
If Malik comes, he has to play at least 20 mpg.
Devonte can transfer and start most places. Will he take a cut in PT for a year with the risk of more OADs later, or will he transfer?
Svi could play the 3, if Malik and Kelly weren't going to be here.
Svi could also play 4, if Perry weren't around.
Svi could also play 2, or 1.
He is like modeling clay waiting to be formed.
Svi's only limit is his feet and what Self already has at other positions.
Svi's feet could not get over screens even late, but he almost could late. If a year of maturing and agility training enable him to guard a point guard's first step, he could be a helluva PG. But Self appears to have Frank, Devonte and Malik that could play PG. And I read where Malik wants to play PG at least part of the time. Inference: not PG if Mason heals, devonte stays, and Malik comes.
Self has Wayne and Malik and Svi at 2. If Malik comes he is the 2, when not the 1. If Malik does not show, then it's Wayne and Svi with some Devonte against short 2s. But if Svi can guard over a screen, and regain his touch, Wayne is in trouble.
At 3, if Self has Oubre, as I suspect he will, Svi and Greene could backup 3, but Self will look at the 2 and say can Wayne become consistent now or not? Can Svi learn to do what Wayne does-- defend--plus shoot and drive and pass like Svi, or can Wayne learn to shoot, drive and pass like Svi. I think Svi will learn to play defense before Wayne learns to do what Svi can.
And if Thon Maker comes, and Oubre jumps, greene might become the corner shooting three needed for a footer and Svi's shot and entry passing for Maker rule at the 2.
Interestingly, Kentucky and Duke recruits DONT want to go where there is playing time.
I wonder why?
TEA LEAF TIME--SHOOTING FORWARD
Leaving aside for the moment potential incoming OADs at shooting forward, Self has five options listed in no particular order of probability to consider.
OPTION 1: KELLY OUBRE--Oubre is a fascinating situation. He apparently came to play for one season, but he, like fellow OAD Cliff Alexander never ruled out a second season that I recall. Oubre had a very strange freshman season for an extraordinary talent anticipated probably to be an OAD. Oubre struggled early partly because of some possible injury issues and possibly because of some struggle with the weight, strength and speed of opposing D1 defenders early. The issues resolved by December, however, and he blossomed for a time going on a three point shooting binge, playing good defense, getting some strips and rebounding well for his position and his slight build as a freshman. But then some kind of injury to his right knee seemed to hamper him down the stretch of the season. His three point shooting percentage dropped precipitously and ended at .358, seriously below past KU shooting forwards like Brannen Rush, Xavier Henry and Brady Morningstar, none of whom achieved stardom, or even long journeymen careers, in the NBA at any position. But on the other hand Kelly's modest trey percentage was comparable to Andrew Wiggins' modest trey percentage, and appeared to be achieved on an injured knee. So: if the knee were to restore function at KU, or in the NBA, there is reason to expect that he could be an extraordinary combination of Wiggins like length and agility, if not towering athleticism, plus a better trey. This seems to be the kind of potential that makes NBA scouts both drool and handwring--a high ceiling if the pop returns. Draft boards rank him high enough to think he will go to the NBA now. On the other hand, Kelly Oubre did not even make first, or second, team All Big 12. He did get honorable mention. It might be a little scary for an NBA GM to tell his owner that he was drafting a guy in the lottery that averaged only 21 mpg, shot only .358 from college range three, and was only honorable mention in a conference that flamed out in the NCAA tournament and produced first and second all conference teams of non lottery pick players ahead of Kelly. Kelly to me seems on the bubble of going, or staying. If they collect information and find he will be drafted in the top 15 on potential, then he goes. Otherwise, I suspect he stays. Given the tendency of a number of NBA teams to draft 3 or so foreign players in the top 15, that means that Kelly has to be among the 12 highest ceiling players in USA, despite his knee. I can't imagine that is the case after watching the NCAA tournament. Kentucky has 5-7 of them without knee problems. Duke has another 3-5 without knee problems. Arizona has another 2. Wisconsin one. North Carolina one. And Gonzaga probably has one. And there have to be another 3-4 out there I donât even know about. And so what this really comes down to is not whether the NBA drafts on potential, which we know that it does, but whether Kelly decides it is better to get some sure money by accepting being drafted lower than 15, or come back another year, rehab, and be a tested, hot commodity with more muscle mass to protect him from the blue meanies. If there were significant doubt about the restoration of pop, then the thing to do would be to jump at any willingness to draft him however low. If his pop is not a question, and how can it not be, then I could see him waiting--maybe. I can see him staying or going, Because Self listed Selden only among the 1 and 2 guards that might not all be back, my hunch is that means Oubre will be back at the 3, or that Self has an OAD three in the bag. I figure we would have heard rumors about that by now. So I am seeing Oubre staying.
OPTION 2: WAYNE SELDEN, JR.--Surely the most enigmatic, sharply talented KU player, since Tyshawn Taylor, probably since Kenny Gregory, maybe of all time. This is some confounding company to be in. We all remember the great Tyshawn Taylor of his remarkable senior season, but he was arguably even more flaky and unpredictable in his freshman, sophomore and junior seasons than Wayne was in his unforgettable-for-the-wrong-reasons sophomore season. Wayne ranged from sterling to psychologically disconnected not only from the game of basketball but from his own seemingly gifted body. The issue seemed to be entirely inside his cranium (note: all involved claimed the knee was well and the pop was back even though it showed at most intermittently), as was the case with Tyshawn his first three seasons of Self searching for ways to unlock the athletic greatness within him. If other things were equal, we could expect Wayne to have another up and down season his junior season, and then a killer senior season. But other things are not equal. We live in the age of Self recruiting OADs. Tyshawn Taylor might never have happened, for worse, and then for better, had Self been able to attract OADs in greater numbers then, or at all his senior season. The OAD phenomenon is very hard on many things. It is hard on coaches, because it makes every successful season come down to one recruiting season, and means every team is young. It is hard on OADs, because they must grow up faster than most can, or should, and exposes them to punking plays before most appear ready. But what is often overlooked is how hard on the OAD phenomenon is on the non-OAD. The non-OAD, which now is what one time OAD Wayne Selden, Jr., is now as a soon-to-be junior. In prior years, this is the season that Wayne would be expected to become a consistent player, the way Travis Releford did. Or maybe to go through a repackaging year as Tyshawn did intended to ready him for senior stardom. But in the OAD era, each season one does not jump to the NBA is risk that an OAD will come and banish you to a back up roll, as first Xavier Henry, and then Josh Selby did, to Brady Morningstar, and thus arrest your development. Not one, not two but three players are likely coming to arrest Wayne Selden, Jr.âs development. One IS too-young-last-season Euro phenom Svi. One may be Malik Newman. One may be OAD Kelly Oubre becoming TAD Kelly Oubre. Even just two of those players are apt to retire Wayne Selden, Jr., honorable mention starter, as a starter and turn him instead into a role player that might have been a consistent starter. How can an honorable mention all conference player become a role playing back up before he becomes a likely second team all conference player, if he were just to get to keep starting and become the consistent player he would likely become this next season? The NBA, and its OAD rule, thatâs how. It is a knife with two edges. Wayne enjoyed the one edge that made him a premium as a freshman. Now, he may get sliced by the other edge that chases him with another OAD. But this is how it is. Wayneâs sophomore turn overs mark him as expendable. He ended the season with as many as starting point guard Frank Mason, and hardly touched the ball in any high risk situations. And Wayne Selden, Jr.âs 38% FG average and 36% 3pt average, and pitiful 2.8 rebounds and acutely pitiful 22 steals in 29 mpg can be out produced by tiny Frank Mason and not so tiny Devonte Graham, and long Brannen Greene, and almost certainly surpassed by an OAD like Malik Newman. And even Svi of the horrible first season stats, Mykhailiuk, if Self is to be believed, is set to break out and meet or beat those numbers. Thus, Wayneâs future as a starter appear over unless Malik does not come, and someone other than Wayne leaves. His productivity numbers FG%, 3pt%, steals, and rebounds are just too low to invest another season in, even though another season invested in him would probably lead to him being a consistent player. Self apparently owed Wayne a season for Wayne playing hurt as a freshman. With that debt now paid, Self likely feels free to re-invest elsewhere. It can be a cruel game.
OPTION 3: BRANNEN GREENEâBrannenâs dad reputedly says Brannen is coming back, but even if there had been no parental reports on Brannen, his shooting numbers stick out like a sore wing! Brannen averaged 42% FGs, and 40% 3PT, while playing through a stretch of games in which he appeared paler than Casper the Friendly Ghost, and various nicks (i.e., injuries that might require minor surgery post season). That he has survived Selfâs wrath and description as a man lacking a conscience about shooting says how much Self likes and wants his fieryness and trey gun around, despite his repulsion at his awkwardness and tangled feet. And he did attain those shooting averages playing perhaps a style of playâBad Ball--least suited to his often awkward 6-7 abilities. Whether Brannen Greene sees an increase in PT this season depends on whether Self signs an immediately credible big manâThon Maker seems the only shot now that Zimmerman has written Self off. If Self has to make do again with last yearâs big men, plus at least one-year-away Carlton Bragg, Self cannot indulge in Greene full time. Greeneâs future next season distills to an algorithm. If Thon Maker signs, then Greene equals starting corner shooting forward, else spot duty.
OPTION 4: TO BE ANNOUNCED OADâNot gonna happen, unless Oubre jumps. Probably not gonna happen even if he does jump. There just is no evidence at this point that an adidas-agent complex truck is scheduled to back up to AFH at the last minute and dump 5 OADs on Selfâs doorstep Nike-UK and Nike-Duke style.
OPTION 5: PERRY ELLISâThis season proved Perry Ellis most certainly could have been a 3 his entire career and been a better 3 than he has been a 4. ButâŚSelf is on record saying that stretch 4s are the toughest players to guard in college basketball, when they rarely occur. Thomas Robinson was the brute force version of a stretch 4. Perry with his 40% trey, good driving, high mobility, and ability to guard most 4s, is the finesse version. Perry is now feasible as a stretch 4, or a long 3âa Michael Kidd-Gilchrist kind of 3âa Brandon Rush kind of 3, without the silkiness of either. But unless Self has a line on an OAD stretch 4, Perry stays where he is.
Conclusion: Oubre if he stays. Selden if recruiting seriously flames out and Self commits to a repackaging a junior season for Wayne as a 3. Greene if Thon Maker signs. And unannounced OAD 3 if hell freezes over. Perry at the 3, if a record snow falls in hell and an OAD stretch 4 were signed.
TEA LEAF TIME--GUARDS
⢠READING THE GUARD LEAVES: Self had this quote in KUSports.com.
"Depending who returns, we could have more of a veteran team. Hopefully that could play to our favor a little bit (in handling a difficult schedule),â he said. âYou stop and think about it ... Svi (Mykhailiuk) is a year older, DevontĂŠ (Graham) and Frank (Mason III) a year older and Wayne (Selden Jr.) a year older. If everybody stayed and would be a year older, thatâd be a pretty experienced and talented team coming back. The reality of that happening is not great. Weâll have to wait and see how it all plays out.
âI love the way DevontĂŠ played down the stretch, and I love Sviâs potential. Heâs a year away, and next year will be the year. We do need to develop some low-post scoring, without question.â
Note that everyone Self mentions is a 1 or 2 guard.
After these quotes is a long Malik Newman promotional item.
Inference: Malik and Svi will start at 1 and 2 and so Frank, Devonte, and Wayne are going to be backups with one likely cryogenically frozen Hunter Mikelson style, if no one transfers for more PT. And Self appears to believe someone may.
Guess: Self says he loves Devonte's play down the stretch. Devonte can swing 1/2. Devonte's legs are sound. He stays. That leaves Frank, or Wayne, as odd man out. Frank had a great season, but his knees were shot at the end and Malik starts at point. Wayne was an enigma of lost mental pop and inconsistency who was benched late in a big game no-show. Guess: Wayne goes cryogenic, or leaves. Frank's knees drive his future. If they don't need surgery, he can transfer to start almost any where else. If they need surgery, he could redshirt. If agent-shoe complex dynamics drive Malik elsewhere, then only one of Frank and Wayne face cryo-ice.
Texas equals Nike.
Texas vastly bigger high school basketball recruiting base than Kentucky.
Texas vastly richer school than Kentucky.
Because of its oil endowment and its oily alums, Texas could exponentially increase Cal's salary, and benefits, and World Wide Wes' take could be sweetened, to something completely beyond anything Kentucky could match.
Texas needs a winner quick, while football is in the dumpster, and it can get back to winning HUGE instantly with Cal.
The ultimate coaching candidate for Texas is: JOHN CALIPARI.
Money talks.
What if Texas offered Cal $100 million per year in salary to move even before the Final Four and bring his next ten OAD stack to Austin?
Cal proved that his formula works at lowly Memphis.
It worked in Lexington.
It would be a slam dunk in Austin.
Really, Cal and Nike can do this anywhere.
They ought to do it where the biggest money is.
Texas is where that is.
Why should Cal settle for a measly $5 million per year?
Why shouldn't he be the first $100 Million/year coach?
I don't think 3pt shooting is luck, or fool's gold.
I think 3pt shooting is just prone to runs of better and runs of worse shooting, like all kinds of shooting are.
We have a long run of missing few bunnies, then we have game where we miss a bunch of bunnies.
The thing about shooting close to the basket is that your bad runs seem to be shorter, and if you have decent front court players, your average FG% inside is tends to run higher that 3pta shooting percentages do.
There is something about shooting 3pt shots that seems to have longer runs hitting and missing, than shooting close in to the basket two point shots.
Also, shooting inside, assuming you have good front court players, you tend to be able to keep making a good percentage inside as you tire, and as injuries accrue.
3ot shooting percentage seems to decline as the game wears on and legs get more tired. And with injuries.
But there is also the argument that there is some point at which you increase the frequency of3ptas you make percentage increases significantly simply from repetitions.
Now to the mid range J. I have to say I am very prejudiced against it, so I may not be able to make as good of a case as some other s could.
But my take is this:
Outside the trey stripe 100% of the time you have a chance to make 3 points with one shot.
Driving into guys near the rim triggers a significant possibility for a 2 point basket at a high percentage and a foul and free throw.
At the mid range you can either only get 2 possible points, or you can drive into your defender and try to draw a foul, but its farther out than a drive inside and so you are likely to make a smaller percentage from mid range while driving into someone than you would driving into someone inside. And you have to drive into someone to get a chance of a 2 point basket and a foul.
But here is why I am such a "radical" thinker (relatively speaking) about this 3pt shooting stuff. Getting teams fouled up is only probable to occur against teams lacking quality depth. And since you can probably find other ways to beat such teams, why scheme your team to be able to foul up shallow teams, when the real problem is the team with quality depth IMHO.
Note: clearly Self does not agree with me. He argues that the farther you go the shorter the bench is, so foul up their starters, but I say the quality depth is still too good to make fouling the starters up worth the effort.
What I argue is that if you shoot vastly more treys, 50% 3ptas in on approach, and 80% 3ptas in another offensive scheme, the points produced will ramp up so much that it creates a bigger lead than getting them fouled up would trigger.
All for now. But we have an entire off season to sort through this.
Sorry about the confusion.
I am saying you (and I) are right about the decisive importance of the trey ball.
But I am saying that Izzo proves you can play it pretty much the way Self plays it with scores in the 60s and 15 3ptas and make it to the Final Four.
Or you can cut loose and shoot a lot of treys.
But what ever you do, you have to MAKE a good percentage of what you take. My heuristic standard is still 40% average.
The farther you go in the Madness the more difficult it is to win without MAKING the treys you take.
And the farther you go in the Madness, especially at the Elite 8, drive ball won't foul up an opponent enough to win games at the foul line, because: a.) refs are swallowing whistles; and b.) teams are too deep to get fouled up.
So: all of these factors point to a crucial dependence on trey ball MAKING, regardless of what total number of treys you attempt.
Everyone of these coaches has some number of trey ball attempts they find optimal.
Everyone of these coaches has proven they can go deep at various levels of trey ball attempts.
But to go deep, they have to MAKE a healthy percentage of what they make.
They can count on one game in which and opponent sucks at trey making, and so that one game they can suck at trey making too.
But most of the games, teams of this quality are making a good percentage of their treys, or they are losing and going home.
Over the course of the off season then, you and I and others have to sort through this and re-attack the issue of how many is the optimal number of 3ptas.
I am still of the opinion that if you have a bunch of good trey ballers, 75-80% of possessions should be 3ptas on the first shot of the possession to really optimize trey balling by raising the number of 3ptas so high that you shoot through slumps in single games, never 4-5 games. But you need two good rebounders.
On the other hand, if you are going to play drive ball, all your drivers have to be able to shoot the trey AND drive and I suspect something like 50% of possessions should start with a 3pta to confront the defense with a 50/50 drive/trey situation, so the defender can never gamble drive or a trey.
Hope this helps.
Totally agree.
Kelly is a very frail guy, as ball players go today in college and pros.
There is every reason to believe that he would get punked next season with what we have coming back, plus Bragg, unless Self signs some very ominous enforcer types.
They punched Andrew Wiggins in the face several times last season.
They broke Embiid's back, or something close to it.
They punched Perry's nose out the back of his head and he is way stronger and more solid that Kelly.
Kelly is a great talent, very courageous, and a pretty player who has come along about 25 years too late for his slight physique.
He needs to jump immediately, get the guarantied money, and spend all his spare time bulking up playing back up minutes until he does.
The best thing for him would be to develop a 40% trey and never have to play another second at the 3. At the 3, until he bulks up, he is a punking waiting to happen. At the 2, he could dish it out instead. But you've got to shoot the trey better than he does to play the 2 in the pros.
Not at all.
I'm just working with the then existing conditions..
If we had not slumped from three point range, I would be working with those conditions and in that case I would be arguing that we would have probably had a much better record than 6-5 by BAD BALL.
What board rats seem not to acknowledge is the Self moves in the directions that he does in part because of circumstances.
Why did Self have the team shooting so much from trey during the mid part of the season? Why didn't he just jump straight to BAD BALL?
Because he had to find a way to bridge from failing at trying to play his traditional high low offense with back 2 basket in the front court to figuring out another way for his front court guys to learn to attack the basket. He apparently knew what he wanted to the bigs to change over to--mobile big man attack platforms. But when he had them do it they weren't very good at it either for awhile. He knew he had some good trey ballers because he had recruited them. He had to piece his way through the transition to Bad Ball. He had nothing left to use to piece with at that point, so he started letting his guys fire 20-25 treys per game, while the front court guys tried to learn to play efficiently as MBMAPs.. He was lucky. The hot shooting trey balling lasted for several weeks and so that bought him the time for his bigs to learn to play face to basket from lots of different formations. And just about the time the hot shooing began to go cold he was in position to shift the bulk of the offensive attack over MBMAPs and perimeter driving. He got a free ride of another two weeks while teams kept guarding KU as if it were a good trey balling team instead of one mired in long slump, and once suffering tired legs and leg injuries, no longer a very good trey balling bunch at all.
Really, Self did one of his three best coaching jobs this season. He turned what should have been a disasterous season, likely the kind of ..500 season that most other top coaches have fallen to once every ten years, into a 26-9 season, a title and 2 seed.
Self could hardly have helped Cliff blowing up and getting suspended. And he even milked quite a bit out of Cliff, a guy who literally could not concentrate enough to keep from making the MOST extraordinary bone head plays, and who could not keep from fouling.
Perry broke out beautifully as a stretch 4, before wrenching his knee and getting his nose pushed out the back of his head with a cheap shot.
Kelly had great stretch before the big white wraps on the knee signalled his steady decline in pop.
Frank played marvelously and vindicated Self's faith in him entirely.
Devonte did darned well for a freshman with a modest rank and playing for a team that was so messed up that it played not one, but three styles of play during his first season. Not many freshman guards could have performed as well as he did under those circumstances.
Wayne was the only heart breaker, because he could never sustain the flashes he showed. But he did play all season and guard all season and there was a stretch late in the season when this KU team played some of the best defense I have seen in Self's 11 years.
Svi folded, but at 17 and half a world from home, well, really not all that surprising.
The front court was might frustrating, because it just didn't seem long enough, heavy enough, or talented enough, to play any kind of conventional ball. But truth be told, they were good enough for a record as good as Cole and Sherron's first season starting together, even though they couldn't stretch it to a Sweet 16.
I am very proud of the team even though it ended on a sour note against a thugging WSU.
And, yes, there is no doubt in my mind that our record would have been much worse that 6-5 had we tried to just rely on the trey ball in the midst of a long slump.
Rock Chalk!
Alas, it is not.
Bad Ball produced the 6-5 result it did under a specific set of conditions. Those condtitions have to be the assumptions for alternative scenarios hypothesized, or there is no validity to considering the alternative scenarios for counter factual inference.
Not to worry. Forgetting to maintain relevant conditions in alternative scenarios plagues a lot of counter factual inference aka what-if modelling.
You can't lose
Coming soon!
Rest assured--Self is recruiting over every single one.
And after watching Zaga's 4 big lugs he has Norm on a plane to Eastern Europe NOW!
Tied 31-31!!!!!
Hang in you can do it.
It's clear because the slump happened.
You rely on the trey in a trey slump with lousy rebounding front court and you die.
I am most amazed that even Pitino has changed over to drive ball.
Really I think Bo Ryan is the origin of drive ball. Self borrowed it thinking he had the trey shooters to play it and figured out that open look Trey shooters are worthless in drive ball; that Bo had drivers that could shoot the trey, and Self had to switch over.
Self had to commit to the drive, but he lacked Bo's stretch 5--all he had was a stretch 4.
It works way better with a stretch 5.