KU has to go with an unproven commodity.
Think of it this way.
In 1999, if you were a major college basketball program in need of a coach, you could have hired a pretty successful young coach from a midmajor program. That coach only had six years experience, and his overall record was just 97-76 (.560 winning percentage), but he was coming off a conference title (his first ever) and an NCAA tournament appearance. He wasn't a proven commodity yet, but if you had made the leap right then, you would have hired then Tulsa coach Bill Self. The next year Self led Tulsa to a 32-5 record, went to the Elite 8 and got the Illinois job. 3 years later he was the coach at Kansas. If you were a program that wanted to strengthen your basketball team, you would have had to hire Bill Self the year before he broke out and got the attention of the big boys. You would have had to hire Mr. .560 winning percentage with one conference title and one NCAA tournament appearance, because once Illinois came calling (a mid tier major conference school) if you were a bottom tier major conference school, you were out of luck.
KU is at the bottom of the major conference football pile. The only way to change that is to make the leap the year before everyone realizes what the coach is capable of and everyone comes calling. You want someone young (under 50) that may be ready to break out. You prefer HC experience and success although that success will likely be at the FCS or midmajor level.
With that, I submit the following candidates:
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Mark Hudspeth, current HC at Louisiana Lafayette. 48 years old. 11 years experience as a head coach, 7 at North Alabama (FCS) where he was 66-21, 4 at UL-L, where he is 28-15. Has worked mostly in the south (Delta State, Central Ark., Mississippi St., etc.)
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Troy Calhoun, current HC at Air Force. 48 years old. 8 years experience as head coach, all at Air Force. 52-42 record. Has some NFL experience as an OC.
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Matt Campbell, current HC at Toledo. 34 years old. 4 years experience as head coach, all at Toledo. 20-11 record. Originally from Massillion, OH. Has worked either at BGSU, Mount Union (his alma mater) or Toledo.
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Rod Carey, current HC at Northern Illinois. 43 years old. 2 years experience as head coach, all at No. Ill. 15-4 record. Originally from Madison, WI. Has always worked in Big 10 country.
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Chris Creighton, current HC at Eastern Michigan. 45 years old. 18 years experience as head coach, 4 at Ottawa University (KS) (32-9), 7 at Wabash College (63-15), 6 at Drake (IA) (42-22) and this year at Eastern Michigan. He's won 8 conference titles.
Obviously, of this list, the most intriguing is Campbell. He's young, he's reasonably accomplished and he may be ready for a new challenge. There will probably be competition for him, but if KU gave him time, he could be a great hire.
The only way KU gets any reward from this hire is if they take a risk.