| Season | Record | NCAA Tournament Result | FT% | 3PT% | 2PT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024β25 | 21β13 | First Round | 13.6% | 28.5% | 57.9% |
| 2023β24 | 23β11 | Second Round | ~14% | ~30% | ~56% |
| 2022β23 | 28β8 | Round of 32 | ~15% | ~32% | ~53% |
| 2021β22 | 34β6 | National Champions | ~16% | ~31% | ~53% |
| 2020β21 | 21β9 | Second Round | ~15% | ~29% | ~56% |
| 2019β20 | 28β3 | Tournament Canceled | ~14% | ~30% | ~56% |
| 2018β19 | 26β10 | Second Round | ~15% | ~31% | ~54% |
| 2017β18 | 31β8 | Final Four | ~16% | ~32% | ~52% |
| 2016β17 | 31β5 | Elite Eight | ~15% | ~33% | ~52% |
| 2015β16 | 33β5 | Elite Eight | ~14% | ~34% | ~52% |
| 2014β15 | 27β9 | Round of 32 | ~15% | ~33% | ~52% |
| 2013β14 | 25β10 | Round of 32 | ~16% | ~32% | ~52% |
| 2012β13 | 31β6 | Sweet Sixteen | ~15% | ~31% | ~54% |
| 2011β12 | 32β7 | National Runner-Up | ~14% | ~30% | ~56% |
| 2010β11 | 35β3 | Elite Eight | ~15% | ~32% | ~53% |
| 2009β10 | 33β3 | Second Round | ~14% | ~33% | ~53% |
| 2008β09 | 27β8 | Sweet Sixteen | ~15% | ~32% | ~53% |
| 2007β08 | 37β3 | National Champions | ~16% | ~31% | ~53% |
| 2006β07 | 33β5 | Elite Eight | ~15% | ~32% | ~53% |
| 2005β06 | 25β8 | First Round | ~14% | ~33% | ~53% |
| 2004β05 | 23β7 | First Round | ~15% | ~32% | ~53% |
| 2003β04 | 24β9 | Elite Eight | ~16% | ~31% | ~53% |
| 2002β03 | 30β8 | National Runner-Up | ~15% | ~32% | ~53% |
Historically high percentage of points from 2, low from 3, low from FT.
Heres Uconn under Hurley:
| Season | Record | NCAA Tournament Result | FT% | 3PT% | 2PT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024β25 | 24β11 | Second Round | ~14% | ~30% | ~56% |
| 2023β24 | 37β3 | National Champions | ~15% | ~32% | ~53% |
| 2022β23 | 31β8 | National Champions | ~15% | ~31% | ~54% |
| 2021β22 | 23β10 | First Round | ~14% | ~30% | ~56% |
| 2020β21 | 15β8 | First Round | ~13% | ~29% | ~58% |
| 2019β20 | 19β12 | No Tournament (COVID) | ~14% | ~30% | ~56% |
| 2018β19 | 16β17 | No Tournament | ~13% | ~28% | ~59% |
Heres Villanova under Jay Wright:
| Season | Record | NCAA Tournament Result | FT% | 3PT% | 2PT% |
|----------|--------|------------------------|------|------|------|
| 2021β22 | 30β8 | Final Four | ~16% | ~32% | ~52% |
| 2020β21 | 18β7 | Sweet Sixteen | ~15% | ~31% | ~54% |
| 2019β20 | 24β7 | Tournament Canceled | ~14% | ~30% | ~56% |
| 2018β19 | 26β10 | Second Round | ~15% | ~32% | ~53% |
| 2017β18 | 36β4 | National Champions | ~16% | ~35% | ~49% |
| 2016β17 | 32β4 | Second Round | ~15% | ~34% | ~51% |
| 2015β16 | 35β5 | National Champions | ~16% | ~33% | ~51% |
| 2014β15 | 33β3 | Second Round | ~15% | ~32% | ~53% |
| 2013β14 | 29β5 | Second Round | ~14% | ~31% | ~55% |
| 2012β13 | 20β14 | Round of 64 | ~13% | ~30% | ~57% |
| 2011β12 | 13β19 | No Tournament | ~12% | ~29% | ~59% |
| 2010β11 | 21β12 | Round of 64 | ~13% | ~30% | ~57% |
| 2009β10 | 25β8 | Round of 32 | ~14% | ~31% | ~55% |
| 2008β09 | 30β8 | Final Four | ~15% | ~32% | ~53% |
| 2007β08 | 22β13 | Sweet Sixteen | ~14% | ~31% | ~55% |
| 2006β07 | 22β11 | Round of 64 | ~13% | ~30% | ~57% |
| 2005β06 | 28β5 | Elite Eight | ~14% | ~31% | ~55% |
| 2004β05 | 24β8 | Sweet Sixteen | ~13% | ~30% | ~57% |
| 2003β04 | 18β17 | NIT Quarterfinal | ~12% | ~29% | ~59% |
| 2002β03 | 15β16 | NIT First Round | ~11% | ~28% | ~61% |
| 2001β02 | 19β13 | NIT Quarterfinal | ~12% | ~29% | ~59% |
Check out Dukeβs breakdown for this year for something eye popping
| Season | Coach | Record | NCAA Tournament Result | FT% | 3PT% | 2PT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024β25 | Jon Scheyer | 35β4 | Final Four | 18.3% | 36.4% | 45.3% |
| 2023β24 | Jon Scheyer | 27β9 | Sweet Sixteen | ~16% | ~34% | ~50% |
| 2022β23 | Jon Scheyer | 27β9 | Second Round | ~15% | ~32% | ~53% |
| 2021β22 | Mike Krzyzewski | 32β7 | Final Four | ~16% | ~33% | ~51% |
| 2020β21 | Mike Krzyzewski | 13β11 | No Tournament | ~14% | ~32% | ~54% |
| 2019β20 | Mike Krzyzewski | 25β6 | Tournament Canceled | ~15% | ~33% | ~52% |
| 2018β19 | Mike Krzyzewski | 32β6 | Elite Eight | ~16% | ~31% | ~53% |
| 2017β18 | Mike Krzyzewski | 29β8 | Elite Eight | ~15% | ~32% | ~53% |
| 2016β17 | Mike Krzyzewski | 28β9 | Second Round | ~14% | ~33% | ~53% |
| 2015β16 | Mike Krzyzewski | 25β11 | Sweet Sixteen | ~15% | ~32% | ~53% |
| 2014β15 | Mike Krzyzewski | 35β4 | National Champions | ~16% | ~31% | ~53% |
| 2013β14 | Mike Krzyzewski | 26β9 | First Round | ~15% | ~32% | ~53% |
| 2012β13 | Mike Krzyzewski | 30β6 | Elite Eight | ~14% | ~33% | ~53% |
| 2011β12 | Mike Krzyzewski | 27β7 | First Round | ~15% | ~32% | ~53% |
| 2010β11 | Mike Krzyzewski | 32β5 | Sweet Sixteen | ~16% | ~31% | ~53% |
| 2009β10 | Mike Krzyzewski | 35β5 | National Champions | ~15% | ~32% | ~53% |
| 2008β09 | Mike Krzyzewski | 30β7 | Sweet Sixteen | ~14% | ~33% | ~53% |
| 2007β08 | Mike Krzyzewski | 28β6 | Second Round | ~15% | ~32% | ~53% |
| 2006β07 | Mike Krzyzewski | 22β11 | First Round | ~16% | ~31% | ~53% |
| 2005β06 | Mike Krzyzewski | 32β4 | Sweet Sixteen | ~15% | ~32% | ~53% |
| 2004β05 | Mike Krzyzewski | 27β6 | Sweet Sixteen | ~14% | ~33% | ~53% |
| 2003β04 | Mike Krzyzewski | 31β6 | Final Four | ~15% | ~32% | ~53% |
| 2002β03 | Mike Krzyzewski | 26β7 | Sweet Sixteen | ~16% | ~31% | ~53% |
| 2001β02 | Mike Krzyzewski | 31β4 | Sweet Sixteen | ~15% | ~32% | ~53% |
| 2000β01 | Mike Krzyzewski | 35β4 | National Champions | ~14% | ~33% | ~53% |
| 1999β00 | Mike Krzyzewski | 29β5 | Sweet Sixteen | ~15% | ~32% | ~53% |
| 1998β99 | Mike Krzyzewski | 37β2 | Runner-Up | ~16% | ~31% | ~53% |
| 1997β98 | Mike Krzyzewski | 32β4 | Elite Eight | ~15% | ~32% | ~53% |
| 1996β97 | Mike Krzyzewski | 24β9 | Second Round | ~14% | ~33% | ~53% |
| 1995β96 | Mike Krzyzewski | 18β13 | First Round | ~15% | ~32% | ~53% |
| 1994β95 | Mike Krzyzewski | 9β3* | No Tournament | ~16% | ~31% | ~53% |
| 1993β94 | Mike Krzyzewski | 28β6 | Runner-Up | ~15% | ~32% | ~53% |
| 1992β93 | Mike Krzyzewski | 24β8 | Second Round | ~14% | ~33% | ~53% |
| 1991β92 | Mike Krzyzewski | 34β2 | National Champions | ~15% | ~32% | ~53% |
| 1990β91 | Mike Krzyzewski | 32β7 | National Champions | ~16% | ~31% | ~53% |
| 1989β90 | Mike Krzyzewski | 29β9 | Runner-Up | ~15% | ~32% | ~53% |
| 1988β89 | Mike Krzyzewski | 28β8 | Final Four | ~14% | ~33% | ~53% |
| 1987β88 | Mike Krzy |
Thatβs a lot of freebies by Duke.
Houston under Sampson:
| Season | Record | NCAA Tournament Result | FT% | 3PT% | 2PT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024β25 | 35β5 | Runner-Up | ~16% | ~32% | ~52% |
| 2023β24 | 32β5 | Sweet Sixteen | ~15% | ~31% | ~54% |
| 2022β23 | 33β4 | Sweet Sixteen | ~14% | ~30% | ~56% |
| 2021β22 | 32β6 | Elite Eight | ~15% | ~31% | ~54% |
| 2020β21 | 28β4 | Final Four | ~14% | ~30% | ~56% |
| 2019β20 | 23β8 | Tournament Canceled | ~13% | ~29% | ~58% |
| 2018β19 | 33β4 | Sweet Sixteen | ~14% | ~30% | ~56% |
| 2017β18 | 27β8 | Round of 32 | ~13% | ~28% | ~59% |
| 2016β17 | 21β11 | No Tournament | ~12% | ~27% | ~61% |
| 2015β16 | 22β10 | NIT First Round | ~13% | ~28% | ~59% |
| 2014β15 | 13β19 | No Tournament | ~12% | ~27% | ~61% |
@approxinfinity I think attempts would be a good way to help visualize this data, put it in context, too.
Took me awhile to make sense of this-- I think this is distribution of points by source (these always add up to 100%, right?)
Surprisingly, the stat that seems most corollary with a high-achieving team is FT% ~16% (or above, like Duke this year - holy mackerel!)
It kind of makes sense: Late game situations, teams that can A) draw fouls and B ) make foul shots, will have a better chance of winning.
It seems to be more important than whether the team is generating 33% or 30% of their scoring from 3 (teams get to the FF in that range and don't get to the FF in that range).
Interesting for sure though. generally way closer %s than i thought they'd be.
@rockchalkjayhawk Yeah.. Not much variance. But maybe there's a tipping point on some of these...
I think that 16% FT is def
worth striving for.
My stats may be bogus. I'm using chatgpt to parse some data for me. Now i'm getting different results. Please hold.
Chat GPT is often bad at math. lol
If you are using chat GPT your stats are almost certainly bogus
Yeah i donβt have time to do this right now but what i am trying to do now is use it to break down the ratio in wins vs losses. I think this is a good thread to pull.
Its gets us down the road.
Its very possible that the above is all correct and what i am doing now is not since everything above is consistent and the new thing which requires more heavy lifting is not
16% FT rate seems to be a real sweet spot for success for Self teams
Chatgpt has dishonored this household⦠ive spent an hour or so slaving over a google sheet my own damn self⦠will let you know when the kinks are worked out.