Last season, I declared in November that I believed that Joel Embiid was the most important player to our national title hopes. This season, as we sit here on December 28, 2014, the most important player is undoubtedly Cliff Alexander. Cliff Alexander is the one player most tied to our national title hopes.
Cliff Alexander needs to average 30 mpg the rest of the season. Here's why.
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While we may become an outside-in team, the inside game must function. Inexorably, while we can emphasize our outside game, shoot threes, and let our athletes outside be the focus, we have to have talent inside in coach Self's system. Outside-in includes the "in." It is not simply gunning three pointers. We need to score inside effectively. This is a coach Self coached team. Focusing on the outside component is what I've suggested, but it is a tweak. Self won't (and possibly can't) change the system right now. We will play three out, two in. We're not playing four out, one in. We can wish, hope, speculate, strategize all we want. We can imagine a fast paced game, with some full or 3/4 court presses, unfazed by working the shot clock. But we know Self will not do it. Thus, we need talent to score and rebound inside. This may not end up being the bread and butter, but it has to function competently.
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Cliff is our most talented big man. I say that with absolute certainty. He is not yet the most skilled -- that honor falls to Ellis. But when you see Cliff excel, we see a guy who is physically imposing, a guy who has a nice touch from outside, and a guy who can have unmatched tenacity on this roster (or possibly matched by only Mason). Long arms. He's a true post player. No discussion of Cliff being an NBA three.
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Cliff has the most rebounds per minute played of any Jayhawk at .321. He has virtually the same number of rebounds as Ellis in two-thirds of the minutes. That figure is comparable to Markieff Morris in his junior season (.341) and Embiid last season (.350), and exceeds Marcus (.264), Withey (.275) and Perry (.224). The gold standard was TRob at .373 per minute. Further, Cliff is third on the team in points scored per minute played at .439, behind Oubre (.453) and Ellis (.448 ).
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At 30 minutes a game, his numbers translate nearly to a double-double: 13.17 ppg, 9.63 rpg. The only players under Self to average a double-double were Simien (2005), TRob (2012), and Aldrich (2009). Aldrich was .2 rpg away from a double-double in 2010. No one else would be closer than Cliff at 30 minutes per game. Cliff has the best field goal percentage of everyone on the team except Mickelson, who has largely played mop up duty this season.
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We need Cliff in large part because Jamari Traylor is playing exactly to his non-ranking as a junior. He is not a starter. He is barely an adequate first big off the bench. I believe that Jamari has plateaued. We're seeing the same Jamari we saw last season. Jamari is rebounding poorly at his normal rate of .214 per minute played (5th on the team), and scoring just .250 points per minute played (9th on the team). Traylor's field goal % is just 39.5, where Cliff's is 51.8%. We can't rely on Traylor for anything, except a few nice blocks and a few peaks to go with the valleys. By comparison, Traylor trails Landen Lucas in both points per minute, and rebounds per minute. Cliff has also more blocks per minute played than Traylor.
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Another reason we need Cliff at 30 mpg is that our other backups, Lucas and Mickelson, are less than stellar. In other words, we have no other real answers. Nothing that has much real upside. In a normal year, you might not have a big average 30 mpg. This season is different. In 2011-12, TRob averaged over 30 mpg. We had a very tight rotation. We should view this season as the same. Cut down on Lucas, Traylor, and Mickelson. Go Cliff 30, Ellis 30, and let the others combine for 20 (assuming Self won't play small at the four). Personally, I like the idea of favoring Mickelson a bit over Traylor in test run for a while -- but that's another topic.
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One obvious reason that we need Cliff to play 30 minutes per game is that Ellis is struggling without competent assistance. My personal belief is that Ellis would not be struggling near as much if Cliff was playing more. That is our best combo. The scoring and rebounding numbers support that. Cliff is only playing 18.6 minutes per game. By comparison, an inferior player, Jamari Traylor, is playing 19.6 minutes per game. But we need Cliff to play more, and play well. We need to get him there.
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Playing Cliff more will make it more likely that he is better in March. The more playing time, the more likely that he'll be closer to his potential freshman peak. Does anyone think that we can function effectively in March, inside, as presently composed? I don't. We need improvement. Cliff working through the kinks is imperative. Self has to stomach the growing pains if we are to get Cliff to his potential freshman peak.
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On the improvement theme, no other big offers the upside potential. We might see Mickelson get an uptick. I don't see it from Lucas right now. Traylor is most likely to be his normal self. Incredibly good sometimes -- see EKU. But incredibly bad and a liability other times. Mostly, he will remain serviceable. We won't win a national title with "serviceable" playing over Cliff, or playing the same minutes as Cliff.
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The final point I would offer in support of playing Cliff more minutes is that many of his mistakes are of the "just missed it" variety. A put back, a rebound out of his hands, and missed lob, and misplayed entry pass. But we have seen the flashes. And the flashes are dominating. We have no other big that has the potential to dominate.
We're heading into conference play in a few weeks. It's time to rap up the minutes for Cliff. It's why you bring in this kind of talent. Letting him sit the bench in favor of obviously inferior players makes little sense. This team is challenged offensively. Cliff provides the best opportunity to increase our offensive production inside. Cliff needs to play 30 mpg going forward. Let's start with Kent St.