JaQuan Lyle: Could coach Self have guaranteed Cliff Alexander that JaQuan Lyle would have a scholarship? Not to be a conspiracy theorist here, but if you listen to Alexander, he seems pretty confident that Lyle is coming to KU. Lyle was on twitter after his decommitment from Louisville, posting stuff about KU and being a Jayhawk. @Statmachine posted this link (1:50 and 4:00 minute marks). Alexander says that he talked to Lyle “last night” and that Lyle was going to be a Jayhawk:
Rivals doesn't even have KU recruiting Lyle; ESPN still erroneously lists that Lyle visited Oct. 4. Would be nice to get some better info. Last I saw, he had visited West Virginia a week or so ago. He’s ranked #39 by ESPN, and #22 by Rivals. We could assume he’s approximately the #30 guy.
I think Lyle would be a solid signing based on one important assumption: That Lyle doesn't expect immediate playing time. If he does come to KU, there is no way that he can expect to play immediately. When Lyle decommitted from Louisville, he said that immediate playing time was a factor there, even though Pitino told him that Chris Jones would likely turn pro. Hard to believe that he would have such a change in priorities. But if he comes here, that tune has to have changed. If not, he's delusional.
With our stable of perimeter players, even losing Selden and Wiggins, how would Lyle get on the court? He is not an ultra-talent like Tyus Jones. Is a freshman Lyle better than sophomores-to-be Greene or Mason, or junior-to-be White? Likely not better than Tharpe, who will be a senior, and certainly not ahead freshman Oubre, right? Where does he play? I left out Frankamp. I know. If we add a top perimeter player, a redshirt season in 2014-15 might seem certain for CF, as @konkeyDong projected.
If Lyle can stomach a season on the bench, he could be a major contributor pretty quickly. Lyle doesn’t project to be near an OAD, and really, he’s likely at least a 3-4 year player. When Lyle is a sophomore, Tharpe will be gone and maybe Oubre. Then his junior season White will be gone and Greene likely will have left. Certainly Oubre will be gone by then. Only Mason and Frankamp would remain. At 6’4”, Lyle could easily play off the ball and not have match-up issues. He could be in the rotation his sophomore season, and a starter his junior and senior seasons.
I guess I’m just curious as to what’s going on. No real Lyle chatter until Alexander mentioned it. Seemed like a dead subject. It is also pretty odd that Alexander said on Friday that he wouldn't sign his LOI until January (on the video link above), and then he signed Saturday morning. Alexander is just a kid and could just be running off at the mouth. Regardless, it will be interesting to monitor.
Transfer Risks: Self has now covered the two scholarships that, publicly, are available. Black is gone, and Wiggins said that he will be a one and done. Any further commitments or signings could lead to the dreaded “overrecruiting.” Technically, Self has overrecruited now. Wiggins could come back. But anyone else signing or committing would assume Selden or Embiid, or both, are headed out the door. We’re still in the mix on Myles Turner and Rashad Vaughn, along with the Lyle rumors.
The possibility of yet another player or two coming in means that the semester transfer watch is on. Lucas is on the bench, Ellis will be back, Alexander coming in, Traylor ahead of him, Mickelson as competition, and Self is still pursuing Turner. Further, Self is going hard after play immediately, OAD talent -- he's in on 4 top 10 post players in 2015.
This all throws the “wait your turn” thing out of whack. That has to have been a big lure for Lucas. If Lucas transferred, he would be eligible the first day after classes next December, with 2 ½ seasons remaining if he transferred. Before you say that he already redshirted, how much real, non-blowout PT will Lucas get for KU between now and when he’d be eligible to play in December, 2014? Probably as much as he’s gotten thus far this season. Lucas seems like a well-grounded kid with excellent parents, but no one knows what’s in his head. Looking at it from the outside, it looks like a risk.
Same situation applies to Mickelson, but he is a season ahead of Lucas. He’s sitting this season no matter what. If he left at semester, he’d only lose the first semester next season and have 1 ½ left. That seems like it’s lower on the risk chart than Lucas, though, since he just came in last spring and had a better lay of the land than Lucas did when he signed.
On the flip side of that, 2015-16 might be Lucas' and Mickelson's big opening. We'll likely lose both Alexander and Ellis. Chances of landing two high talent post players, good enough to start, is pretty slim. They would both be gambling that Self doesn't hit it big. Playing a big role that season would fit nicely into Lucas' developmental status. I hope that he hangs around, and that his hard work pays off.
On the perimeter, Greene, White, and Frankamp are competing to even get on the court now. The Duke game tipped Self’s hand on his approach to the rotation – it hasn’t changed in tight games. Those three will have the same playing time battle next season. If Oubre is our only perimeter recruit, and Frankamp is ok with redshirting if he doesn’t break into the rotation, our transfer risk there goes way down. But add another top player to the equation, the transfer possibility could rear its ugly head in December (and certainly next spring). The minutes distribution on the perimeter heading into the Christmas break will be something to keep an eye on.
Our roster is crowded with talent and guys that deserve to play. But as Clint Eastwood said in Unforgiven, "deserves got nothin' to do with it." It's not just about talent, or "deserving" it -- it's about the guy in front of you. Roadblocks. With all this talent, and guys that want and deserve to play, it’s just hard to imagine something won’t happen on the transfer front, just as it has in the past.