2016 looks to be another big recruiting year for KU. My one real qualm about the WUG was that with Self tied up during the first half of July, we'd end up missing the best part of the summer recruiting season. Smartly, Self decided to leave his two top guys (Roberts and Townsend) behind. But with the upper limit on departures could be as high as 7 scholarship players this year, something we haven't seen since 2011, a year that proved to be rough on the recruiting trail, this year's haul is going to be all important in terms of maintaining Big 12 dominance, and keeping KU from falling further behind our blue-blood brethren.
Realistically, I don't expect there to be quite as many as 7 scholarships opened, but I think the minimum to plan for is 5 (With 3 bigs graduating, Diallo likely to OAD, and one of the wings either taking the plunge (Svi or Selden) or looking to transfer (Greene or Vick)). With all that in consideration, here's my 5 man dream recruiting class for 2016 by position:
PG) De'Aaron Fox
A consensus top 15 kid, all around, he's a great player and the exact type of PG I (and more importantly Self) like: 6'3", great length, elite athleticism, supremely quick, great ball control, good passer, sees the floor, great defender, and a real ball hound. He's a capable scorer, but unlikely to ever be the top scoring option. He is awfully scrawny for the time being, but that hasn't made him shy about taking contact on the drive, and he's a decent finisher at the rim. His J is mechanically sound, but his shooting touch is inconsistent. If all that sounds a lot like Tyshawn Taylor, I'll be the first to admit it is, but Fox is doing a better job of learning to play at more than one speed than Ty had done at the same point in his career.
Given all of that, he's likely to take 2-3 years in school before Fox is really ready to make the jump to the pros. Time to develop is exactly what KU has to offer given that we really don't need to land a PG in this class, although we should want to. If Fox picks KU he can not only build his body with Hudy, but get schooled by both Frank and Devonte, almost as good a backcourt pair as Collins and Chalmers. Of course instant gratification is a concern, and with Fox being a Texas/Nike kid, Shaka at UT, and Fox very much a "Havok™" (not "Havoc®") friendly kind of guard, we're likely 2nd banana to UT right now.
SG) Terrance Ferguson
Terrance is a true shooting guard with potential to so much more. Already blessed with a pure J and NBA range, this consensus top 15 kid has room to grow into a great defender and a 15+ ppg player, should he become an upperclassman. Ferguson is very much like a plus version of our own Brannen Greene. Whether squared up in catch and shoot situations or curling off screens, a swish seems all but guaranteed. Admittedly, his shooting stance is a little hinky, but it seems to work for him, and that's all that matters. What makes him a plus version of Greene, however, is that he's a far superior athlete, and a better all around ball handler. He's not a take you off the dribble player like Vick, though. Just a kid that you can run some more stuff for. He's a great finisher in the open floor, and has the hops and length to go and grab a lob or stick a put back that's anywhere near the rim. Most of his scoring is going to come from kick outs and set plays.
Also like Greene, Ferguson is going to have plenty of work to do to get to the L someday. He's not a great defender, although he does a better job of creating turnovers than his matriculated counterpart. Being longer should help that area of development. He just needs to put equal effort into his game on the opposite side of the court. His storking legs give him the sort of stride where, with focus and Self defensive coaching, he has potential to be Releford level lockdown. The biggest area of improvement, much like Fox above or Svi, is that he needs to add a lot of strength and with those stork legs and average shoulders, you have to wonder if he's got the frame to build on. His triple-threat game needs work too. BBIQ-wise, he's average.
All in all, there's a whole lot to like about Ferg. KU has already emerged as an early favorite in his recruitment. As long as we place a wing in the draft this year, I think we've got a great shot at sealing the deal.
SF) Josh Jackson
Jackson is one of the top wing players in the country, and it's not in the least bit difficult to see why. He's among the elite athletes in his class. @jayballer54 already did a really nice write up on Jackson. What I'll add to that is he's very much a player in the vein of Andrew Wiggins. He's already a D-1 level defender and he's nowhere near his ceiling in that regard. He's also a real scorer, but not much of a shooter. The similarities to the NBA ROY don't end there. He's got a lot of the same moves attacking the basket, including the trademark spin. There are a couple key differences, though, between Jackson and Wiggins. As an athlete, despite being at the top of his class, Jackson isn't quite on the very top level. Wigs was an elite athlete by NBA standards from the day he set foot on campus. Jackson isn't quite as long. He doesn't have the uber first step, nor the 2nd and 3rd bounce. No shame in not quite being as athletic as a once in a generation kind of player, though. The saving grace, however, is that JJ is waaaaaay more aggressive than Wigs was. While everyone adapts to D-1 speed at their own pace, I'd be really shocked to see Jackson ever defer the way Wigs sometimes would.
Again, as @jayballer54 already mentioned, KU is seen as a leader in Jackson's recruitment. But unlike Ferguson, Jackson would have little to fear in the way of upperclassmen keeping him out of a starting line up.
PF) Schnider Herard
With most of our defections coming from the bigs, the class of 2016 is going to demand at least one immediate impact player and at least one developmental/depth player for our front court. For the developmental side of the coin, my pick is Schnider Herard from Haiti. I've seen Herard ranked as high as the low 40s, although he's dropped off ESPN's most recent top 100 (still rated 4 stars). I think he's likely to finish in the top 80 - 60 range, though. He's most commonly listed as a center, but he does have a burgeoning face up game and overall good touch, so face up play is a distinct possibility, and lacking a true back to the basket game, I've listed him as a 4 for our purposes. He does know how to use his body, though, and his thighs are like tree trunks. He's also developed his upper body a ton since arriving in the states, adding about 40 lbs top to bottom from his freshman to junior seasons. His best assets right now are his size, at 6'10.5" in shoes and 260 lbs, and his athleticism. He's a good rebounder, too. As a player, he's really just a bigger Tarik Black. His game is all about power and throwing his weight around. He is among the rawest of raw players I can remember Self ever offering (unless you count Wesley, which I don't). If Herard's game is steak tartare, Big Cliff's is beef jerky.
What Herard does have, though, is NBA potential in a 4 year package. If he can learn to play D without fouling, add a drop step, a hook, and the ability to score over both shoulders, he could be a 2nd rounder by the time he moves on, a la Sausha Kaun. He'll never be a franchise player, but he's got everything you could want in a journeyman.
As for his recruitment, he appears to be wide open right now. While I can't fault Self for not making Herard a top target, he's exactly the sort of kid that will be easy to miss on not because we can't offer him the best long term opportunity, but because we can offer the least short term benefit. There are plenty of mid-tier teams that would be overjoyed to start him or, at very least, offer him significant playing time as a freshman. Cal, Purdue, ASU, Nebraska, and any number of Texas teams could all make pretty immediate use of a guy like him. If he is on the market late, I think it's an easy sell, but if he goes early, we're probably S.O.L.
C) Marques Bolden
Another player that's already shown up on another poster's wishlist (thanks @HighEliteMajor), Bolden is my top overall want in this class. HEM's post on him was must read and covers everything you need to know, but here's my 2 cents: For a player comparison, I'll go with #45 Cole Aldrich. He's not the best athlete, best shot blocker, nor best back to the basket scorer, but there are no real blind spots in his game either. He's got good shooting touch, a killer hook shot, nice size, a good set of post moves, and rebounds well too. The biggest strike he has had against him was level or effort/focus, but according to Eric Bossi, he's been dominant on the AAU circuit as of late, playing with a heretofore unknown ferocity.
What should make me happiest is that he's a self-proclaimed life long KU fan and we're seen as the front runner in his recruitment. What gives me pause, however, is that UK and Duke are coming on strong, and the way he's been playing, he's likely to be among the most coveted bigs in a class lacking quality in that respect. The longer he stays on the market, the more of a dog fight it'll become. Hopefully we get this one over with by Late Night.