It's been quite a week. The big build up for Tuesday's game vs. Michigan State. The extreme overconfidence displayed by many Jayhawks' fans, including myself. And then the let down of a collapse in the second half.
I wanted to hit on some items from the MSU game that I felt were important. I sat out the commenting after my initial post, and really just read the comments. Great insight by many here. But here are some thoughts:
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Why Landon Lucas?: Many of us pondered "why Landon Lucas?" Truth is, Landon is our best rebounding big man. However, Landon does little else when he is on the floor. Bill Self, in his post game interview, was quoted as follows: : "Self said Michigan State’s defensive style — they three-quarter fronted the post — demanded the presence of Lucas, who is the Jayhawks’ best big man at sealing the post and creating angles. 'That’s Landen Lucas’ best game,” Self said. “That’s what he does. He plays to getting answers. So I thought that was the percentage play for us, to play that well'.” So Self's decision was not based on rebounding.
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Insight On Self's Rationale: This quote from Self is our best insight regarding the question of "why" he chose Lucas over Mickelson or even Bragg. It is also terrific insight into "why" Self makes puzzling lineup decisions overall -- decisions that the masses on the outside might not understand. However, this does not mean that Self's decisions are correct. Actually, it demonstrates the irrationality of Self's approach.
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Paralysis by Analysis: We've heard the phrase. An individual can't get to the correct decision because they overanalyze things. Many times a decision just can't get made. Other times, the correct decision is overlooked by hyper-focusing on items that, in the big picture, aren't important. They focus on little bits of information, and place too much focus on that information. I've suspected for quite a while that Bill Self does exactly that -- he makes decisions based on a certain item of information, while missing the bigger picture. While missing the much simpler analysis. Can't see the forest for the trees. Folks that are intellectual, so to speak, in their approach, a susceptible to this paralysis. I"ve been around a lot of coaches over the years, multiple levels of youth sports through college. This is a very real dynamic. It's very real in everyday life, as well. The quote regarding the rationale for playing Lucas evidences this "paralysis by analysis" because the stated logic is largely irrelevant to the bigger picture.
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Historical Paralysis: Over the years with coach Self, we've pounded our heads against the wall as to "why" coach Self values experience to a much greater degree than other coaches. Why he is many times resistant to simply go with the commonly viewed "better player", many times the player that is the younger player. "Why" has been the question. I remember a poster at kusports.com -- a negator that went by jayhawkinnebr, or something like that. Had a cucumber as his avatar. He said one time, "Bill Self plays Brady Morningstar because he can do one thing well, throw it to Cole." (or something to that effect). It was sheer brilliance. This is Bill Self. Many of us saw Tylel Reed and Brady Morningstar on the floor, and we were frustrated. We saw Elijah Johnson and Travis Releford on the bench. The answer is the analysis that caused the paralysis -- each player did something the coach saw as crucial. Brady, the post feed. Reed, maybe crisp ball reversal. Obviously, Reed was smart, given his current avocation. I'll bet quite a bit smarter than the average KU hoops player. We saw Oubre sit. We saw Cliff sit. It's funny, but we had folks here actually argue that Lucas and Traylor should play over Cliff - a guy who just made an NBA roster. The reason Cliff wasn't player was because of Bill Self, and Bill Self's approach the "merit." And we wonder why we could seal the deal on anyone other than Bragg last season until late, and why we have a marginal top 100 recruit as our only "in the bag" guy right now. Different topic. The Cliff effect.
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Flawed Approach: This approach, I believe, is significantly flawed. It is flawed because it leads to the inferior player being on the floor. I have posed this question to the KU faithful here now multiple times, who's better, Jamari Traylor or Carlton Bragg? Actually, my phrasing was "If you could have Traylor or Bragg this season, who would you want on your team?" I have challenged anyone to speak up if they'd prefer Traylor. No one has. And that's the point. Carlton Bragg is better. No doubt. Unassailable. So why does Bragg play 11 minutes and Traylor 18? It's because of Self's flawed analysis. Same question - If you could have Hunter Mickelson or Landen Lucas on your team the rest of this season, who would you prefer? I would suspect that question is a little closer call, but who here would prefer Lucas? The reality is that with Lucas, you have a one trick pony - he does rebound. With Traylor, Self had previously said in response to a question from Tom Keegan about why Traylor plays, Self said "Just energy." Self's approach disregards a very simple concept -- just play the better player.
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Self Missing It -- The Sealing Quote. Bill Self said that he went with Landon Lucas because he did a better job sealing to receive an entry pass, and he thought that would work better against Michigan St., given the way Michigan St. fronts the post. On many levels, this is ridiculous. One one level, it is not. On that level, let's grant Self his point. i'm sure he's right that Lucas does this best amongst big guys. With that in mind, what else does Lucas do (or not do) and what else is there to consider? a) Defense first - Self has insisted that we need to win with defense. Landon Lucas is rented mule defensively, as in, getting beaten as if he is that rented mule. Lucas has very limited ability to defend the post or change shots. We saw that last season. He can't stop anyone with any sort of skill level. And further, he is not a rim protector. If you have the game recorded, go to the 6:50 mark. An MSU player drives into the lane, in Lucas' face, easy bucket. Just one example. b ) Post-Scoring - The folly of Self's comments on the reason he played Lucas seems quite obvious -- Lucas has no real post scoring ability. Go to the offensive series directly following the defensive series noted above. Lucas seals, gets an entry pass, and can't score at the rim. What is surprising about this? And I don't have to spend time on Traylor near the bucket, right? His back to the basket skills are non-existent. c) Running the floor - Self has made a big point about wanting to play faster. Lucas is the antithesis of that approach. He's slow, and plodding.
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Self Missing It, Again -- The At The Rim Scoring: More quotes. Last season, Kansas was horrible scoring at the rim. We cited the stats regularly. And it was obvious from our performances. Self said this after the game at kusports.com, after KU missed what were termed as "bunnies": “It’s the same story as last year. We can’t get the ball in any tighter,” Self said of inside feeds. “Guys double clutching. We got the ball in to six inches sometimes and several times came out with nothing, some air-balls. We’ve got to improve there." Note to Coach Self -- with your chosen personnel (Lucas/Traylor), we aren't going to improve there. Coach Self is completely oblivious to the reality of his favored personnel of Ellis, Traylor, and Lucas. Ellis has skill. He finds a way many times. But Lucas and Traylor can't handle the job. They can't score on the block. So we're getting the ball inside, "we can't get the ball in any tighter", but we can't score. Why is this surprising? And no, we can't get any better with your chosen personnel (Lucas/Traylor) -- not against good teams like MSU. Against lesser teams, sure. But that's the real fool's gold. The illusion that we can score inside when we play weaker opponents. And as we saw last season, that didn't work all of the time. And this is nothing new. As Self said, it's the same as last season. This is why committing to Cliff Alexander would have been the most reasonable approach last season. Of course, later events made that moot. But the issues remain the same, as Self said.
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Self Missing It, Yet Again -- The Bunnies: The post game "bunny" discussion was comical. It's as if Bill Self lives in a vacuum. He completely ignores the defensive efforts of our opposition in creating difficulty inside. He is ignoring reality. We miss "bunnies" vs. MSU (and Stanford for that matter) because of their defense. MSU was active, in our face, and challenging each shot. With post players of limited skills, Kansas will fail inside in that environment. It's exactly why we lost to Stanford. Stanford was big, and Perry Ellis (3-10) and Jamari Traylor (1-8 ) couldn't match up. Tarik Black (6-8 ) could match up. Missing "bunnies" happens for a reason most of the time. Self's mantra is to challenge shots. Why? Because folks miss challenged shots more often. That's the real explanation. More skilled big guys can score through the challenges.But against MSU it is a misrepresentation to imply that we mainly missed open shots at the rim. Our shots were aggressively challenged. Self is creating a false reality, convincing himself that those missed "bunnies" were the real culprit. We are a little smarter than that.
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Back To the Basket Scoring: Self conceded in preseason that he was concerned about his team's back to the basket scoring. I addressed that topic and Self's quote a few weeks ago in this post about back to the basket scoring. Self, after the game Tuesday, again cited the back to basket scoring saying that for "us to win big, consistently, [we have] to be able to score with our back to the basket some." We've watched enough KU basketball to know. I'm sorry, the secret is out. Lucas is a below average back to basket scorer, and Traylor's back to the basket game is non-existent. Bill Self said after the game, "If guys struggle finishing from three or four feet with defense on ‘em, the whole thing is trying to make it an easier shot. We actually did that fairly well, we just came away with very little. We’ll get better at that.” No, that's not entirely true. You have to have players that can score with the defense "on 'em." Defenses will be "on 'em." They were "on 'em" all last season. Thus the futility of Lucas/Traylor. Merely now, in November, saying the answer is getting easier shots is pure folly and delusion. It's the same delusion that plagued Self's decisions last season. Lucas and Traylor aren't going to miraculously become back to the basket scorers.
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Play The Better Player - Mick over Lucas: Seems simple. It is. Play the better player. The rub is, so to speak, one's assessment of "better." And this, I think, has been a paralyzer for coach Self. The Lucas comment is a perfect example of what I think is going on. Self is missing the big picture down low. The big picture is that Hunter Mickelson is better than Lucas or Traylor. Mick can rim protect, he help limit penetration by opposing players (see that example on Lucas at 6:40), he has touch and skill around the basket -- Fran Fraschilla said "Hunter Mickelson picking up where he left off at the World Univ. Games. Can score inside", and Mick can hit that 10-15 foot step out jumper. How do we know this? We've seen it in action. Further, Mick is not slow and plodding like Lucas. He does run the floor aggressively. We've seen his score on the break, and on lobs. Further, Self has even said that Mickelson plays with energy. Does anyone say that about Lucas? The "we don't see practice" stuff is baloney. We can see performance in the games. And we see incompetence from Lucas and Traylor. This is not to suggest that Mick is perfect, or won't have bad games. He's the better play over the long term of this season. Your total results will be better. Committing to him right now, full time rotation player over Lucas. Start him.
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Play The Better Player - Bragg Over Traylor: Watch Bragg in the high/low. He's a natural. He's made feeds from the top that defy logic. Self really wants to create scoring down low? There's a partial answer. If Self wants to create scoring down low, if he's really serious about that, then Carlton Bragg should be in that spot. He's the better passer. If Self laments our inability to feed the post as he did last season, if it's genuine, then there is no denying Bragg. Further, Bragg can clearly drill the 18 footer -- he's a tremendous shooter. He did it twice Tuesday. He can shoot. Do we ever see that from Jamari Traylor? Bragg proved at the WUGs and games leading up to MSU that he is an active rebounder. Much more so than Traylor. Bragg's goose egg would be the anomaly much like Traylor's 7 boards is an anomaly. And many times, boards come in bunches. Bragg has a low post game -- it's not stellar, but it is far superior to Traylor. He has the ability to hit a turnaround jumper on the block, or go over with a baby hook. Traylor does not. Bragg is longer and quicker than Traylor. He handles the ball much, much better. His ability to attack the rim is more diverse than Traylor, whose dribble drives are only right sided, and simply lowering the head and going. Traylor has no ability to adjust on the dribble as does Bragg. Bragg is a superior basketball talent, an NBA talent, who brings winning basketball skills to the court. And Bragg's defense appears to be solid. One of the things that I've seen over the years is when anyone questions Self's lineup decisions, a small contingent works awfully hard to justify his decision, mostly referring to subjective things like defense -- hyper-focusing on certain failures of the alternative player while ignoring the flaws of Self's chosen player in the same context. Perhaps, maybe, those same folks will open their minds to possibility that Self is flat wrong. That Self's is limiting this team's ceiling. Otherwise, please tell me why Traylor gives us a better chance to win than does Carlton Bragg. Like my comment with Mick, Bragg isn't perfect, he'll struggle, but he's the better player by a long ways. Go with him now. If Self doesn't start Mick, he could start Bragg with Ellis and go quick. Off subject, as above, could this be a reason why our recruiting is an issue right now?
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Mistaken Analysis: I was at least a little entertained by @Texas-Hawk-10 after the game. His defense of Lucas and dismissal of Bragg evidenced, respectfully, an unawareness of the big picture (did I say that nice enough?). I will say many of his comments have been spot on. But his defense of Lucas was that Lucas had 7 rebounds. For that matter, Traylor did too. He then lit into Bragg saying, see, he had no rebounds and 4 points in 11 minutes. Stats matter. He cited Mickelson in his 3 minutes of play. This sort of approach is extremely flawed. And I agree. Stats matter. But with Lucas and Traylor, we have a significant and undeniable book of futility. We have history. Last season, Traylor had 10 rebounds in the season opener, and then 7 against Kentucky in the blowout. But finished at .182 for the season, per minute. He had 4 rebounds in the 32 minutes in the exhibition games. While Lucas does rebound well, he does nothing else well. He's not a rim protector, he doesn't run the floor, he can't score down low, he doesn't have a jumper from 10 feet, he has nothing. How do we know this? We just do, right?
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@Jesse-Newell's Comment On Self: In response to a question about Traylor and his playing time, @Jesse-Newell said the following, "Each of us has biases. I think Self likes him as a person and overlooks a lot because of that." If that is true, Self is not doing his job. When there are inexplicable decisions, this sort of explanation makes more sense. Illogical reasons explain illogical decisions.
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"Self -- "Just Like Last Season": Self's comment about our failures at the rims, and it being "just like last season" should be very concerning. In a big game, Self reverted to form. @Texas-Hawk-10 said after the WUG -- Self hasn't changed, see how he handled the Germany game. That's what should concern us. Self reverted to form vs. Germany, or as I said at the time, his butt puckered. He refused to use the rotation of players that got him there. If we would have lost, it would have been a clear choke from the bench. But we eked it out, so all was justified. But now, we start anew. I said this during the summer -- Self saw our problems last season. We all did. It is his job to adjust to make sure we're not left with the disorganization and poor play that concluded last season. It is his job to adjust to his talent. I suggested specific tweaks to the high/low. I've watched. I don't see anything substantively different. The nay-sayers saying Self would not adjust appear to be correct. And guys like me, who thought he would adjust, appear to be wrong.
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Haunting Reminders: I saw a funny comment that explained Brannen Greene's suspension. That, of course, he shoots three pointers, and Self sees that a "conduct detrimental to the team." Only it isn't that funny when we see another season of the same tripe. What we saw Tuesday was a haunting reminder of 2014-15, only Self picked up where he left off. We took just 12 three pointers outside of the last minute. Just 12. Svi and Greene took zero three point attempts. It was interesting, Self commented that MSU won "basically on jump shots." It's Self rationalization that the victory by MSU was not quite as worthy as another type of win might be. But here we are again. A coach that devalues the jump shot, that has a team that can't score inside against good competition, a team Self already said again was of his best shooting teams, with the player Self said was the "best shooter" he's had at Kansas (Brannen Greene). Meanwhile, we're playing Landon Lucas, who can't score reliably at the rim anyway, because he can seal on a three quarter deny defense? And we're continuing to give Traylor huge minutes when he is an offensive albatross, gets pushed around, has limited skills, and is a poor rebounder? This is Kansas basketball?
Someone is not seeing the forest for the trees.