After the SDSU game, @VailHawk posted perhaps the perfect thread. A simple picture of Cheick Diallo and Carlton Bragg on the bench. The title of the thread was appropriately, "What's Wrong With This Picture?"
Very few times do we have "thread perfection." But if there ever was a time, this was it.
The thread challenged us to think. We won. Traylor played well. Yet Diallo sat. And Bragg sat. Kansas basketball paid a price for Self's decision. Another opportunity at experience lost.
Thus in a "micro" sense, Traylor played well and we won. But in a "macro" sense, we lost. And we are losing. The cause? Myopia -- a severe case of short-sightedness that has afflicted our coach's thought process. But another cause? Feelings. The coach's love for his players and the struggle every coach goes through with players he loves -- it's hard to watch them sit on the bench.
Based on our coach's statements (apparently) finally accepting the strengths of our team (shooting), that the rate of threes should increase, and that he forced last year's team to be something it wasn't, this is … maybe … the last hurdle. So here we go:
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The Struggle - Win This Game vs. Gaining Experience: It's every coach's job, right? Win. It's the ultimate trump card. But we all know there is a bigger picture, don't we? Bill Self knows it. Perry Ellis knows it when he said in October, "I have a goal to go to the Final Four." So what is the best way to get there? That's a difficult question, too. Is it play to win each game regardless of the carnage, "the ends justify the means", in a game to game sense? To just try to get a #1 seed since that's the easier path? Or do you do long-term planning? Do your projections go into your playing time decisions? Do you attempt to get your best players the experience needed to be at their collective ceilings in March? Do you permit as much time as possible for those players to play together, with the team, so the team is function as high as it possibly can? That's the struggle. After the SDSU game, Bill Self explained why he played Jamari Traylor 21 minutes. "When the game got tight, I went with experience (Traylor). I put an experienced guy out there because he’d been there before.” Self has also said in comparing Diallo and Bragg to the vets, “There’s other kids who have busted their butt for two or three years who are trying hard, too."
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The Struggle - Feelings vs. Playing The Best Players: Anyone that has coached knows what I'm talking about. The kid you love. The kid you have worked with for years, but he's a lower tier player. If you are truly trying to be the best team you can be, that kid would sit quite a bit. As a coach, and I've been there, you adjust your strategy to make sure that kid plays. At that point, you accept that you might be compromising your team's ceiling for a reason based on feelings -- you are making decisions with your heart, not your head. @Jesse-Newell made the comment a number weeks ago, explaining Self's playing time for Traylor, that Self just really likes the kid and his background. I get it. But are Bill Self's feelings for a player or players the right way to make decisions? Do you make the hard choice and sit a kid or kids that you love? That's the struggle. In referencing the playing time in the post, Self said after the SDSU: “It’s not easy to play six big guys, and we played one of them 17 minutes in the first half (Ellis). Have to give everybody a chance."
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Myopia Defined: I found this on-line, perhaps the best definition for my purposes here - "Myopia is an adjective meaning shortsighted in every sense. Whether you need glasses or a new attitude, if you can't see the forest for the trees, you're myopic." Ah, that forest for the trees thing. I've referred to that before. The paralysis by analysis. Focusing too much on the "micro" elements, and losing sight of the big picture, or the macro. Playing Landen Lucas because he's more effective when the opposition is in a three-quarter deny position. Or when Lucas just has to play to guard a good player, on an average team, at AFH. It's all the same myopia.
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Why Is It Myopia?: Easy. Bill Self said it. We've all said it. It's literally undisputed. Diallo and Bragg have the highest ceilings of the post players. When speaking of the post players, Self said, “Your most talented, gifted kids physically are your younger kids.” When they don't play, the concept of short-sightedness comes into focus. @bwag said on another thread: "Mari's playing time now, comes at a cost that, many of us fear, will be payed later at greater consequence than an early season game against inferior quality opponents … If experience is important, and no one disagrees that it is, then early season games should focus on getting your more talented, but less experienced players more experience in game situations." We have two players who are our only post players that really have NBA futures. Diallo was the #5 player, as projected OAD. And Bragg the #21 player, who is now racing up NBA draft projections. But what is interesting is that both players have also demonstrated productivity while on the floor this season.
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Is Anyone Unexpendable?: After the SDSU game, I posted on @VailHawk's thread, the following, simple question: "Is there anyone that thinks we lose last night if Jamari Traylor missed the flight to SD and didn’t make the trip?" Of course, the normal anger ensued without any of the angry ones thinking past the end of their collective noses. @JayHawkFanToo, however, missed my point, but also made my point, He said, "You could leave just about any KU player home and still win (or lose) most games …" Right, that's the point. Therefore, why ever play the inferior, low ceiling players rotation level minutes? Certainly Jamari Traylor played well vs. SDSU. Maybe his second best game as a Jayhawk. But that misses the "macro" point. Those minutes are valuable experience.
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Experience Contradiction: Why did Self go with Traylor? Self said "experience." Why would one go with "experience"? Presumably, because "experience" gives you a better chance to win. Ok, given that, wouldn't it make sense then to provide your higher talent players as much "experience" as possible so that when presented the opportunity in more important games, that they would give you the better chance to win? One point is of course the need to win the game at hand. But I would argue that most of our games are not going to be won or lost by the lower ceiling talent. That's rarely ever the case. Heck, we won the three prior game by 90 combined points with Traylor playing 13 minutes. Self played Mickelson nearly the entire second half against Oregon St. Does anyone really think we lose that game if Mickelson doesn't play? The reason I didn't have an issue with that is Mickelson's higher talent level. But if Self would have played Diallo those minutes, I would have had zero problem. None. It would have been done for a reason -- for the big picture. If experience is a reason to select a player for playing time, then you have to give the better players the opportunity to gain that valuable experience. If you don't, and you are planning that they have bigger minutes in the future, then you are compromising your ceiling in the future by limiting their minutes and experience now.
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Pressure Makes Diamonds: General George Patton said, famously, "pressure makes diamonds." And this is very true in sports. The first time you step to the free throw line with opposing fans screaming, late in the game, is much different than the 25th time. Why? Because you know what to expect. You've been there before. You've experienced the butterflies in the stomach. And over time, the way nerves negatively affect performance progressively lessen. We had our team's first true road game. Hostile environment. Adversity. And what happened? Self fumbled the opportunity to give Diallo and Bragg the pressure situation, the situation that can help shape them moving forward in much more important games -- whether they be conference games or tourney games. Experience -- and being subjected to pressure over time -- permits an athlete to perform at their peak without interference from nerves and other extraneous forces.
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Not Playing Diallo/Bragg High Minutes Makes Sense Only If …: Right, only if Self does not intend to play them high level minutes in March. There, it would make sense. If Self projects Bragg at 10 minutes and Diallo as an 8 minute guy later, then sure, get the minutes for the guys you are ultimately going to rely upon. But if Self envisions Bragg and Diallo as big minutes guys, players that we need to get us to a national title, then it makes zero sense.
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The Risk Of The Alleged Hot-Hand: It's just an increased gamble. Alright, tell me who will play better against UC-Irvine, Svi Mykhailuk or Frank Mason? Do you really know? Couldn't Svi come out and drill four three pointers in the first 5 minutes? Of course he could. So if Self has that "feeling", as I'm sure he might from time to time, why doesn't he gamble from time to time and start Svi over Mason? Because lineup decisions made on those gambles will surely blow up. There are decent odds against on Svi outperforming Mason. Coaches make lineup decisions based on the most likely results -- they play the best players. What player, over the long term, is my best bet? If a coach tries to project future results on other factors, the chances of it blowing up in his face increases. A way decisions blow up in one's face is also the failure to perform. The player in question playing poorly and providing a subpar performance. When a coach has evidence from past performances, it makes no sense to risk that underperformance unless there is a higher purpose. For Kansas, all Self has to do is look at the history of poor and mediocre performances from Lucas and Traylor to get a good read on the risks of playing either of them. With Bragg and Diallo, we have the promise of higher ceilings. As I'll address below, it's all relative.
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The SDSU Example: Self goes with Traylor because of experience. But let's assume for a moment that Traylor performs, well, like Traylor normally does. Let's say there's no steals, two turnovers, and two less rebounds. My point is not the exact detail of how this would occur, but only to suggest that Traylor harming Kansas while on the floor is a much greater probability than Traylor helping Kansas. We know that from his history here. The stats just don't lie. Traylor had more steals than turnovers vs. SDSU. Last season, Traylor 20 games where he had more turnovers than steals, and only 4 games where he had more steal than turnovers. See what I mean?
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But Can't Self Just Pull Him?: Of course he can. Self could just pull him when his performance turns downward. But do you see the peril of that approach? First, you remove the player when he fails to perform -- the negative has already occurred. Second, you lose the potential positive from the better player -- meaning the odds are that the better player is going to give you a better "net" performance over time. So your gamble has more than just one element. The gamble is opportunity cost. You also lose the potential performance of the player on the bench. And this goes to the heart of some advanced statistics. Playing the best player maximizes your team's opportunities more times than not playing the best players does.
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The Bigger Purpose (Macro) AND Micro Help: Here's the thing .. the current stats show that playing Diallo and Bragg will, over time, be better for Kansas. Just using what they've done now, and not even projecting improvement. Pair this with the unanimous agreement that Diallo and Bragg have higher ceilings, the case is undeniably compelling. The catch-all Player Efficiency Rating shows as follows - Diallo 21.6, Bragg 21.1, Lucas 21.0, and Traylor 15.5. So even using this rating, in Diallo and Bragg's first minutes as Jayhawks, they are either equal or better bets for positive performances on the court than Lucas or Traylor -- and that doesn't even consider that higher talent Self referred to. Further, when you factor in that both Diallo and Bragg's need to continue their development, and that development leads to better performances, only someone making decisions for non-performance reasons could come to a different conclusion. The fact is, as well, that developing the top talent doesn't necessarily mean you sacrifice victories.
For Kansas to reach it's potential, Bill Self needs to overcome his fear that inexperience may cost him a game. It might happen. He has to realize that relying on experience, equally, may also cost him a game as well. It's the same discussion as blaming losses on bunnies and missed three pointers. You can lose both ways. And developing talent doesn't necessarily mean sacrificing wins.
THE GOAL IS TO WIN THE NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP. EVERY MOVE SHOULD BE MADE WITH THAT IN MIND. Diallo and Bragg being at maximum efficiency is much more important thaN a loss here or there, if that were to occur. Getting Diallo and Bragg experience now, and regularly, and under fire, is crucial to that pursuit. It is critical.** A great example is Diallo and fouling. Many comments that he needs to learn without fouling -- exactly. He needs on the job experience to learn. Just one example.
Some folks have downplayed Kansas' chances this season saying that we are essentially the same team from last season. They are right, only if Diallo and Bragg aren't big minutes players, night in, and night out. And they are right if Diallo and Bragg aren't ready to be the #2 and #3 post players come March.
We have seen what results our alternatives provide over multiple seasons, and this is all relative. For this team to reach its peak, as well as to win games now, the better gamble is give Diallo and Bragg consistent and unyielding doses of 18-20 minutes per game.