Lots of thread going at the moment. Thought I'd toss in a some interesting information I reviewed today with some other thoughts.
Of the 25 top rivals recruits, two are out due to injury (#17 Ray Smith/Arizona and #18 Tyler Dorsey/Oregon). So we are dealing with 23 players remaining.
We saw earlier in the year that from a minutes perspective, Diallo and Bragg were lagging far behind. As of today, the end of non-con, the gap is even bigger.
Beyond minutes, I looked at each of the top 25 (really 23 players) Player Efficiency Rating (PER). Not an absolutely perfect stat, but very reliable -- and it's the one "all in one" stat that we can look to for comparison.
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Diallo/Bragg vs. Top 25 Recruits (Playing Time): Carlton Bragg is #20 (11.8 mpg) and Cheick Diallo is #21 (10.7 mpg) in playing time per game when compared to the Top 25 recruits. Only Chase Jeter/Duke (9.5) and Justin Simon/Arizona (7.1) are lower as well as the two injured players.
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The Staggering Gap Between Bragg and #19 In Playing Time: More interesting is the ranking in playing time is that while Bragg is #20 at 11.8, the #19 playing in playing time is Skal Labissiere at 20.6 minutes per game. This is pretty staggering. So the next playing above Bragg is playing nearly double his minutes. Further, numbers 1 - 14 all play 25 minutes or more.
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PER Rating: When looking at the overall PER ratings for these 23 players, Diallo is 7th best and Bragg is 10th best. So while their playing time lags severely, both players' production is well into the top half, and Diallo in the top third.
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Minutes per game vs. PER Difference: To highlight the discrepancy, I compared minutes vs. PER. Only four players had a positive PER difference vs. minutes. Cheick Diallo has the best ratio at 11.2 (10.7 minutes/21.7 PER). Justin Simon of Arizona is next at 10.4 (7.1 minutes/17.5 PER). Diamond Stone is next (21.2/28.9). Then Carton Bragg at 7.7 (11.8/19.3). A positive ratio would indicate (roughly) that their minutes aren't in line with their production. Nineteen (19) players had a negative PER to minutes ratio, meaning they were playing more minutes than their PER -- nearly every player. Just a way to compare and contrast with what's happening in other programs.
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Low PERs and Playing Time: It really stood out to me that many players had very low PERs, but got big minutes - Malik Newman (Miss. St) 28.0/14.0; Derryck Thornton (Duke) 17.3/13.6; Antonio Blakeney (LSU) 30.0/11.2; Caleb Swanigan (Purdue) 27.7/15.1; Jalen Adams (UConn) 20.9/11.5; Isaiah Briscoe (Kentucky) 30.4/15.0.
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Landen Lucas/Jamari Traylor/Hunter Mickelson: Landen Lucas has reversed his PER from last season. In 2014-15, his PER was 13.7. Pretty bad. This season, though, Lucas is at an impressive 21.9. Hunter Mickelson had a PER of 22.5 in 2014-15 in limited playing time. However, he has backed that up during rotation level minutes, logging in at 24.2 this season. Jamari Traylor, though, has not improved by any significance. In 2014-15, his PER was 12.7. This season Traylor is at 14.7.
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Svi Mykhailuk: When we discuss cutting the rotation, no doubt that Svi is on the chopping block. Svi's PER is 14.0, now just a tick below Traylor. Further, his PER trajectory has continued downward.
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Cutting the Rotation: Self has spoken many times about trimming playing time. Self has always preferred and 8+ rotation. That is, 8 core players with a 5th perimeter guy and a 5th post player as extras (though the 5th post guy gets less minutes than the 5th perimeter player due to the minutes available -- 120 on the perimeter per game, and 80 in the post). It does not appear Self will get to that 8+ anytime soon. January becomes the sifter. LeGerald Vick is out. So we're down to 11. The next easy cut, again off production, is Jamari Traylor. He lags all of the bigs. Lucas, by his production, deserves to stay. I have my personal feelings on playing Lucas and Traylor. I wouldn't play either of them. But Lucas has been productive. No denying that. Traylor has not been productive. There is no denying that, either. Next, based on non-con, Self should really prioritize Brannen Greene over Svi. Greene checks in at a team high 27.6 PER. So even if we think Greene's might be a touch too high vs the eye test, he's still way ahead of Svi.
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The Rotation Starting Saturday: Perimeter - Mason, Graham, Selden, Greene, with Svi as the 5th, lower minutes guy. In the post, if he does cut that rotation, Traylor should be out. Ellis and Mick start, and I would suspect Lucas and Bragg would be the primary back ups. Diallo, given his place in the pecking order and the upside we discuss, should get minutes as the 5th. If Diallo take silly shots like he did when he got in the game the other night -- the "selfish" 18 footer, as @BeddieKU23 correctly mentioned in another thread, that might stay his spot. Self should have yanked him right then and there, but then re-inserted him after the shock-collar treatment wore off. That's not a quick hook -- like when a player makes a common error. It would have been appropriate training.
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Self And A National Championship: In Self's press conference today, he said very clearly that he would "Rather play great in the 3rd season than the 2nd season" -- Self refers to the NCAA tournament as the 3rd season and conference play as the 2nd season. That rather tepid statement is at least nice to hear.
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2015-16 Kansas Offense: Is this the perfect offense? There is not one complaint I can muster regarding our offense, our scheming -- anything. Self has clearly focused this team on its strengths and has implemented his high/low to perfection with the talent he has this season. And as usual, the unsung part of Self's game planning has been top notch -- scoring on in-bounds plays. He's also added pressure at appropriate times, though most of us would like more. The best move, of course, was starting Graham and moving Selden to the three. That's what Self really learned in the WUGs, I would suspect. This is a national championship level offense. And when we're averaging 19+ three pointers per game, we're in the "Goldilocks Zone" for success. This is the offense we hoped for last season. Conference play will test Self's resolve and commitment to playing to this team's strength.
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UConn Model?: I looked back at past national champions. In recent history, really only UConn has relied on lower tier bigs. Of course UConn had great guards, and smaller guards. This seems like a good comparison. Of course, most national champs have higher rated bigs in the rotation. I could not find a 6 man big rotation that won it all, but it won't be 6 come March. But our perimeter is our strength and this is the best group in the country.
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Diamond Stone: We had a discussion on @DoubleDD's thread about Diamond Stone. A kid that struggled a bit early, looked a bit lost, and put up 39 points last night. I saw him play against Georgetown and he didn't look good at all. But Turgeon has played him. @DCHawker said in response to @BeddieKU23 - "Actually, Stone was getting less than 20 minutes a game through the first half of the season (although double digit minutes in every game) and, having watched a few of the games, he clearly looked a bit lost - just like a freshman. Only scored in double figures a couple of those games and was often out of position for rebounds (low totals). But, this is the key and I think make yours and @HighEliteMajor points - he was getting real minutes, Turgeon let him play through his mistakes, and he now looks a lot more comfortable - even dominant. Double figures in each of his last 6 games, capped by the 39pt, 12rb performance yesterday. Guys aren’t going to learn and gain experience riding the bench." Stone, during his minutes, seemed a lot like Diallo. He was productive, good PER, but made mistakes that caused a little head scratching. His production last night pumped his PER up quite a bit. But the key is he got time to work out the kinks. Other guys are getting that leeway. And getting it at Duke and Kentucky, not just at LSU or Mississippi State.
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Tom Keegan: Wanted to reiterate my response on Keegan. Tom made the following statement - "Playing time doesn’t determine when the light comes on. The light coming on determines playing time. Here’s guessing it will come on for Bragg before this season is over. Diallo? That might take a little longer." First, Mr. Keegan has obviously never coached at any level. To discount the value of playing time is to simply speak from a position of ignorance. The man just doesn't know. And he obviously didn't speak to coach Self on the subject, and hasn't paid attention to Kansas players of the past. Playing time equals experience, and the more experienced you are, the brighter your light can become. Tom Keegan talking out of a body part in far reaches of his backside. And to suggest that the light has not come on for Bragg is just absurd. Diallo? Sure, we can all see that argument. But Bragg? What games has Keegan been watching? But again, how does the light come on? During limited practice time? Uh, no. Play them. And play them some more.
Have a great New Year's holiday! Baylor and OU, two games in three days -- now it begins.