@drgnslayr
Its both! :smiley:
Self is always both.
Self does have a problem with all his bigs being largely unproven behind Lucas, and Lucas has never really been focused on as the guy to stop before either.
So: Self has to anticipate the significant possibility that Bragg takes a full season to develop and won't really be a cornerstone weapon till next season. And know also that he might make one of those few nonlinear leaps big men make their third seasons earlier...say in Bragg's second season this year. He has to be ready for either contingency.
And the further down you go in the depth chart in the bigs, the more risky it becomes that one of them will become a rotation guy capable of playing rotation minutes in big games.
Coleby is coming off a nasty injury and has never played ball at the level of intensity that KU players have to be ready to play at. When you play at Miss State, everyone on your schedule is not gunning for you the way they do KU, and the pre conference schedule is not one of the toughest in the country the way it tends to be at KU. Thus, Coleby is a huge question mark even as a back up.
And with a huge guy like Udoka, the odds are 1 in a 100 that he will be able to do all the things a big has to do to play rotation minutes against a top opponent. I doubt Vegas would even give odds that Udoka will be able to hedge defend on pick and rolls 20 feet from the basket this season. Udoka will contribute some each game, I reckon, but it likely will be a tiny, narrowly scoped role.
This means that though Self has a lot of big men to rotate a lot of them may not be street legal this season when we face the top opponents.
So: Self will have to do some of this and some of that.
I would not be at all surprised that at crunch time, the line up is Lucas, Bragg, Jackson, Graham and Mason. Call that 10 minutes of each half.
But because our useable depth at big men will likely only be useable against the lesser opponents, figure that Self will have to look at the other 2ompg as varying considerably from opponent to opponent.
Against weak opponents, I suspect Self will play 3-2 75% and 4-1 25% of those "other" 20 minutes.
But against the really good opponents, unless our bigs develop unusually fast, I reckon we will see 4-1 being played 75% against good opponents and 3-2 played 25% of the "other" 20 minutes against good opponents.
Player development and opponent will dictate the mix of styles to be played in the "other" 20 minutes.
In the crunch time 20 minutes (the decisive 10 each half), I believe the Lucas, Bragg, Jackson, Graham, Mason quintet is the best we can field and allows the strongest rotations to rest them.
An interesting wild card in this is Self's comment that he anticipates playing Josh Jackson at 1, 2, 3, and 4, since he played all those positions in high school.
This could again be smoke. Self has often talked about using guys many places and then has done so very sparingly, or not at all.
Thus, this is for sure an statement made to give opposing coaches more to prepare for early regardless if he intends to do it, or not. Strategic logic is that you never signal an opponent what you are actually going to do, so this is another reason we will not likely see josh at four positions in a game anytime soon. At most we will see him in a couple positions early on. Most likely we will see him at one position and Self trying figure out if he can protect, guard, help, feed the post, and make a trey, so he knows just how much of the FGAs he can afford to give him over the long season.
On the other hand, if player development of the Bigs inside, or of Svi and Vick outside, lags behind normal expectations, well, then it would be crazy not to play Josh anywhere and everywhere to keep the opposition from scheming to stop him at one spot, while also adding to flexibility of resting the other starters.
The game down the stretch of the season is to find a scheme that results in the best five starters at playing together, with the least drop off, when substituting, based on the players stages of development at that point of the season.
Barring major injuries to the top rotation players, I keep coming back to the probability of Lucas, Bragg, Jackson, Graham, Mason with Coleby backing up the two in the paint, and Vic and Svi backing up the perimeter. This means a lot of 3-2 and only occasional 4-1. when we need to trey shoot our way back into a game, or into a quick lead, that we can then defend 3-2.
Really, we will be doing much the same that we did last year, but with legitimate big men to resort to. Whether those big men can score as much as Perry, I doubt. But they will get a lot more rebounds, and reduce the opponent's inside scoring efficiency significantly,, and trigger a lot more outlets for breaks by a potentially awesome transition threesome in Mason, Graham and Jackson.
I don't look for a running team per se.
KU will walk it up the floor on made baskets, whenever its in the lead.
But I look for a sharp in crease in transition baskets from more rebounds and more regular release of three perimeter guys from rebounding duties. And with Lucas and Bragg being able to run the floor pretty well after the rebound and release, I look for Self use the secondary break 4 times a half.
All the issue of steals and run outs that you have raised I think remains to be seen in how much gambling on defense Self decides is optimal for this bunch.
Devonte and Frank are great strengths, but they still have never impressed me as usually gifted thieves the way Chalmers and RR were. On the other hand, roster talents their previous seasons have dictated that it was best for them to play defense very conservatively since they lacked much rim protection behind them. They could surprise me with more ability to steal than we have seen, and so fulfill your expectations. But a lot depends on whether Lucas and Bragg have that ownership mentality in the paint and the springs, want to, and timing to get up and become human drones loitering around the rim as shots approach. Both could become rim protectors, neither necessarily is that type naturally. So: i have to beg off and say "wait and see" on the steals and runouts.
