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jaybate intelligence estimate

To: Board Rats

From: jaybate

RE: WVU THREAT LEVEL--HIGH

Bob Huggins team last season was one of his rare bad ones. He rebuilt his team this season and it looks like he designed it specifically to beat KU. Three combos and two bigs. The combos play a lot of minutes. The bigs are two deep. This WVU is modeled after SDSU and Florida and to lesser degree Texas. It is big, brawny, deep, and has long and strong guards. Couple this with Huggins thug ball and this means the threat level for an upset of KU is HIGH, I REPEAT HIGH.

WVU plays a 9 man rotation, which takes away KU's favorite device: using depth to wear down and foul up opponents.

WVU plays four freshman bigs standing 6-9 to 6-10 and weighing 230 to 255. This takes away much of KU's edge inside. Specifically, WVU will have a small matchup problem with Embiid, if Embiid were healthy (which remains to be seems), but it also means that Perry Ellis could easily be neutralized playing two guys bigger and heavier than himself. Tarick Black could be critical to this game, because of his size and weight. Jamari Traylor could have problems impacting much. KU bigs are more skilled and athletic than WVU's but if KU's bigs thought Texas was rough, they ain't seen nuttin' yet.

At PG, Huggins starts 6-1 190 Juwan Staten and plays him 37 mpg and backs up with 6-1 player. Staten will be a very tough matchup for Tharpe and we are likely to see a lot of Mason, because Staten will not tire easily.

At 2 guard, Huggins starts 6-3 195 Eron Harris and plays him 30 mpg. Selden, or Wiggins have the height on this guy, but will have trouble with his speed.

The 3 with 6-4 200 Terry Henderson is where KU has a big edge if Wigs plays the 3. But 6-7 Remi Dibo lets Huggs get long at the 3 when needed. Still, the 3 seems the place to attack.

Defensively, WVU pressures, which KU still struggles with. WVU also likes for all nine rotation guys to get one strip a game and the bigs try for blocks. WVU likes to win the Disruption Stat and any team that likes to do that is trouble for KU, if KU fails to protect, because KU doesn't disrupt much. Likely Self will try to amp up KU's defense some to compensate, but bottom line, WVU will muddy this game up and apply the muscle.

Offensively, somethings never change. Bob will still be running his father's weird old variation on the shuffle offense that Huggs and Frank Martin ran at KSU before each departed.

Bottom line, this is the kind of team that can give KU fits. It denies KU's edge inside and puts pressure on KU's perimeter player, all the while muscling.

I'm still not sure KU can handle this sort of team.

WVU started slowly, because their freshman bigs have been slow developing, but they are starting to get the hang of it.

If Embiid and Black only 75% of normal health, WVU may win.

If Embiid and Black are full title boogie, then KU should win.

Home court will be important for KU, but SDSU proved that if you put enough muscle on KU in AFH, the home court advantage vaporizes.

Devin Williams is Huggs go to guy inside.

Eron, Dibo and Henderson are the trifectates on the perimeter. PG Staten takes very few treys.

6-9 Nathan Adrian likes to step out and take the trey, also.

WVU's slow start, while Huggs fit in the freshman, makes them underestimated.

KU better watch out.

@jaybate great analysis as always for the bored rats! Off topic question- while watching the opening ceremony with my wife n kids, how do I explain to my seven year old Russia's influence on warfare? Inquiring minds want to know!

No question, this is a dangerous team!

We need to attack Williams in the post. Get him in foul trouble and we own the post all day.

Tharpe needs to step up on defense and shut down the drive on Staten. Staten is very capable of giving Tharpe fits and maybe foul trouble!

Selden should be up for the task of shutting down Harris.

WVU doesn't turn the ball over much, so we need to be good on the boards today. If we don't come ready to play, and we turnover the ball and don't crash the boards, we are in for another loss at AFH! A big part of this game will be decided by the number of possessions.

I'm feeling like this will become a battle to win the foul war. We need Joel to stay on the court. We have way too many scoring weapons that are capable in the post... so we need to use them and attack Williams. While we are at it, attack Dibo, too. Once WVU gets into post foul trouble, we'll own the post to score in and we'll own a rebounding advantage... two factors that will be hard to overcome for the Mountaineers.

This could be a big game for Wiggins... he's probably ready to put up some good offense again. I think he reads the sports tabloids and sees he is falling behind several players concerning NBA draft positions. WVU really doesn't have a way to stop him.

Embiid might be ready to get back on track, too.

Regardless how our young guns play, Ellis should go big today. This is his kind of team to play and he can dominate. I wouldn't be surprised if he pops in 20!

This is a game we could lose if we don't play well. Staten and Harris are very good.
We should have the advantage inside, though. They are not very big and certainly not as deep as we are up front. Hopefully, Embiid can dominate like he has in the past. If not though, or if he gets in foul trouble, we can bring in Black and Traylor.While their offensive games are not real dangerous, they can both get the job done. Agree that this is a team against which Perry could dominate.
Tharpe, or Mason, or both, have to do a decent job on Staten or he could dominate all by himself....he's really good.

Glad I'm not alone in my apprehension of WV. While I think we have the advantage for this meeting -- playing at home -- I am particularly worried about the game in Morgantown, which is the last game of the season.

Kansas State cleaning Texas Clocks so far. With 3 minutes left in the first half they are ahead 33-14 and shooting free throws.

If Kansas State and KU win, KU is definitely in control of the conference race.

@JayHawkFanToo I was watching the game and noticed that K State is flat out dominating Texas. KU got blown out at Texas yet dominated K State. Why is that? Simple: effort and energy. K State doesn't look intimidate at all going against Texas in the paint, as Texas is an LSA team. They look like they do not want to lose and will scrap and fight to win. That is the type of effort that KU has to play with in order to beat LSA teams. They cannot play scared. They need to move the ball and make cuts through the paint and fight to get every rebound. K State all of a sudden has not become some tremendous team. They are just doing what it takes, as we have discussed, to beat a team such as Texas, Villanova, or San Diego State. You have to out tough them. You have to outrebound them. You have to be aggressive.

Its not rocket science.

I also want to add that playing the way K State is today is a choice. Other posters have discussed on here about whether or not you can play this way if you naturally do not. It isnt that complicated: either want to, or you don't. I know this from personal experience. BIll Self is going to have to explain this to his players and show them the K State game, because K State simply wants to win more. Against San Diego St., the ball stuck, they didnt handle the double team, and they didnt rebound. They let San Diego St. control the game. They need to have the mindset that K State has right now in order to beat LSAs. If they can turn on that switch, there are very few obstacles standing in the way of Dallas.

@DinarHawk

It was one of those games when Kansas State could do no wrong and Texas could do no right. One played well above its average and the other well below. It happens.

Hopefully KSU cools off over the weekend, otherwise it could a looooong game.