Regrettably, I have to weigh in occasionally on KU football now again, because someone here recently produced a brain researcher that let's his kid play football, because some research he had done called into question the common sense and the legacy research conclusions that football was inevitably brain damaging those that play it. So, here goes.
In total rebuilding scenarios, it is almost always a two step process.
Step 1: spend several years getting up to 80-90 D1 grade players on scholarship and establishing the recruiting pipeline capable of sustaining that flow rate and building up the quality of that flow rate incrementally. During this phase, wins and losses hardly matter and are often more a matter of luck of meeting opponents when they are injured, and when your guys are not, or when you have a few unexpected diamonds in the rough show up, as occurred for Mangino, after which his fortunes started to sag back closer to a more normal development process.
Step 2: Take your 80-90 player roster and begin focusing recruiting on a few blue chippers and on acquiring cutting edge strategy on offense, or defense, that combine to take you to finishing in the top three of your conference consistently.
I don't see any sustainable shortcuts. And when you have a guy that has some sudden early success, like Mangino, you have to not be seduced into thinking it is sustainable after the lucky early diamonds in the rough graduate. Wins WILL decline after an early peak and you WILL return to the normal development cycle.
Regarding Beatty, the decision tree is pretty clear.
If Beatty continues to successfully sign more D1 grade players, so that by next season (his fourth, if I recall correctly) KU can expect to have 80-90 legitimate D1 players on hand, regardless of stage of development, then Beatty should be retained. Period. Even if he hasn't won a single game.
But if Beatty is not on track to have 80-90 legitimate D1 players on the roster by next season, then Beatty has to go NOW, because he isn't capable of accomplishing the first phase of our rebuild; i.e., getting our roster numbers up to Step 1 baseline target.
This should be a fairly easy decision to make.
Beatty should NOT be judged by his W&L statement either way.
Beatty should be judged by his recruiting; i.e., by whether he is climbing up the steep slope of recruiting to establish 80-90 D1 grade players that could be built upon, by him, or by some better coach, in Phase II of the rebuild.
Becoming good at football or basketball, without cheating to do it, is a long term process. Period.
Sorry, I cannot contribute any names to the hopper for Beatty's possible replacement, but I'm just not well-informed on college football coaching candidates these days. I'll try to knock some rust off in coming months.
I can suggest one to avoid: Charlie Weis.
Rock Chalk!