I don't think the Big 12 is nearly as good as the computers say the Big 12 is. The Big 12 has probably 2 marquee nonconference wins all season and that would be Kansas over Kentucky in the Champions Classic and Oklahoma over Wichita St. Name an impressive win the Big 12 has outside of those two games?
The reason why the Big 12 is as strong in the computers as it is this year is because there's not a lot of bad losses for the Big 12 this year. KSU has a real bad loss to Tulsa, Iowa St. has a real bad loss to UW-Milwaukee and those are the only 2 sub RPI 100 losses the Big 12 has in conference so far. I believe KU's loss to Washington is the 3rd worst loss any team in the Big 12 has based on RPI.
Say what you will about the RPI, but that's still one of the biggest tools the NCAA Tournament selection committee uses to compare teams and to base who gets in the tournament.
I still think the Big 12 is legitimately down from years past, but with the lack of marquee games the league played this year, it really masked a lot of the deficiencies of the Big 12 this year. TCU is undefeated because they haven't played anybody, Texas Tech is where they're at because they haven't played anybody this year. Nevada is the best team each of those teams beat this season. TCU is a good team, but they haven't been challenged yet this year. SMU is the closest to a major conference team they've played this year and they only play that game because it's a rivalry game.
The Big 12 could get anywhere from 4-7 teams in the tournament this year, I'll say 6 teams get in and we could possibly see all of them get knocked out before the weekend. I think KU, WVU, and OU are all good enough to make runs, but I don't think all 3 will and it's possible none of them do.