KU v. KSU 45%
KU v. OSU 36.4%
KU v. TCU 33.3%
KU v. Baylor 19.4% <------- TROUGH
KU v. ISU 34.6%
KU v. WVU 31.8%
KU v. OU 55.2% <------- PEAK
KU v. TTECH 44%
KU v. TEXAS 43.8%
KU v. OSU 35% <-------TROUGH
KU v. OSU 40%
KU v. KSU 39.3%
KU v. WVU 55.6% <--------PEAK
KU v. Penn 41.2%
KU v. Seton Hall 42%
KU v. Clemson/Auburn ?%
No trough yet?
The first half sure looked like a trough!
@jaybate-1-0 what if 41% was the trough that KU climbs out of the rest of the games, peaking in about 4 games?
can afford a trough against clemson or auburn and win by driving and paint points.
dylans said:
@jaybate-1-0 what if 41% was the trough that KU climbs out of the rest of the games, peaking in about 4 games?
It is possible statistically speaking.
The right and left tails of distributions exist to account for such anomalies.
Teams have gotten hot for six games. KU could have gotten hot for the previous 6-7 games (trough to trough so to speak) and then get hot for another 4 games. Its is possible.
Having allowed for the statistically possible, then it is worth considering what would be implied, if 41% were the trough in a tendency, rather than in an anomaly in a right tail of the distribution.
The first trough was 19% followed by a peak of 55%.
The second trough was 35% followed by a peak of 55%.
The third trough, according to your what if, would be 41%, and let's assume it too will be followed by a 55% peak.
This implies the team is becoming a rapidly improving three point shooting team down the stretch of the season. Why?
Well, we know it is not the format. Most of the conference season, KU played 2 in 3 or 2 in 4 formats separated by about a week, same as in the March Carney.
Are a lot of our perimeter players' outside shooting mechanics being changed, or dialed in, by the coaches? Well, I see no sign of any perimeter player's shooting mechanics changing, do you?
Are our perimeter players legs getting healthier, or are our perimeter players getting more rest? No and no appear reasonable answers.
Are our perimeter players getting better shots? Hmmmmmm. Now there is an interesting possibility. Out of the last three games in the conference tourney, two were played agains lesser teams. Out of the two teams played in the first round, one sucked (Penn) and one (Seton) was no better than a bottom half of the Big 12 type team. This leads one to suspect that our impressive shooting has been produced by two factors converging.
First, there is the shooting cycle contribution. Our shooting cycles do rise and fall and rise again. The last few games, we were beginning a decline phase, but it has not gotten as deep as the usual decline phase for a reason.
Second, that reason is the relatively weak competition in the first round of the tournament.
So: I will throw the what ifs back to you now.
What if 41% against Seton would have been much lower against a team of at least the quality of the upper level of the Big12? And what if KU meets a team at least as good as one of the top 3-4 teams in the Big 12 either game in Round 2? What if the combination of KU being in a down cycle, probably even hitting a trough in the first of the two game sets, coincides with KU encountering a team as good as, or perhaps even slightly better than, one of the top 4 teams in the B12? Is it possible KU could trough between 19 and 35% from beyond the trey stripe?
@jaybate-1.0 SHU would be the third or fourth best team in the big 12. Firmly ahead of KSU.
BShark said:
@jaybate-1.0 SHU would be the third or fourth best team in the big 12. Firmly ahead of KSU.
Yeah seton hall is a talented team. Gave Xavier and Nova all they could handle.
We could have won a first round game with a trough, but we would have to play a fabulous floor game and drive for short treys, and pick up all the garbage baskets possible to compensate at the Round 2 level IMHO.
What concerns me most right now, though, is Devonte's health. He really looked out of it the second half. He is a good dead pan pretender, and so can pull back on the reigns and mask how limited he is, but everyone likely recalls how Malik's head shot took it out of him for a couple games, while he played through. Devonte will play through. But wow is this a lot to ask of even the "find-a-way guys" to win a Sweet 16 and an Elite 8 with DG at half to 3/4 effectiveness.
But this is what the "find-a-way guys" have been about all season: finding a way!!!
Svi, Malik, and LaGerald each showed they could take it up a notch the second half against a Seton-Hall. The question of course is: can they take it up a notch against a Clemson, or an Auburn. I haven't seen either team play and won't get to watch them play today. I hope someone writes up a scout on the winner that KU will have to play, so I can read it.
It's hard to predict what will happen game to game, especially in the tourney. Why? The human element of unpredictability. What if they are reaching a level of consistently shooting their average over an extended period? All that really matters though is getting hot in the elite eight. That's the only way we are going to advance this year.
I really didn't see the skill level, or the footwork, level to really compete in the top tier of the Big 12. KSU would take Seton Hall easily.
You've got to remember, KU repeatedly jumped out to 10-12 point leads on the Fighting Setons and the only reason KU didn't blow them out was that KU played the second half 4 on 5 with Devonte pretending to be playing. Sheesh, if Devonte had been healthy, KU would have shit canned them by 15 easily, probably by 20.
I mean did you see how effortlessly Svi was driving on those guys. Svi hasn't been able to shake loose that easily that often against ANY top tier team in the B12.
And Malik frankly looked like he could have scored 40 points, if Self had just said give him the ball and drive it, pal.
Here is how weak Seton Hall was : Vick was even getting aggressive on the drive at times.
Really, KU would have mopped the floor with these guys if Devonte had been able to add 2 and 2 the second half.
And even playing 4 on 5, the only way the fighting Setons were able to stay in the game was by massive cheap shotting most every play. And they were such babies that when KU dished it back, they started crying. Really, I would love to schedule them and this pencil neck coach of theirs into Allen Field House shortly and beat them 100 to 70 with our subs playing a lot the last 5 minutes.
@jaybate-1.0 The cyclic period of 6 games you've suggested would mean we're due for another trough next game. Sure hope not. But we'd hit our next peak in the Championship game!
@jaybate-1.0 The teams KU has played in the tournament are not as athletic as the teams that give KU fits. The scouting reports aren’t as good as the in conference scouting reports. The competition picks up each round, so we shall see if the shooting is in an up cycle, a down cycle, or the product of the opponent. But I for damn sure am not looking for KU to have an off shooting night due to the lunar cycle.
BPI. RPI. AP. Coaches
Penn 100 124 - -
Seton Hall 28 31 35 38
Auburn 20 11 19 21
Clemson 18 10 20 18
MSU 6 15 5 5
Duke. 2 6 9 6
‘Nova 1 2 2 2
KU 8 5 4 3
Go KU!
tundrahok said:
@jaybate-1.0 The cyclic period of 6 games you've suggested would mean we're due for another trough next game. Sure hope not. But we'd hit our next peak in the Championship game!
You nailed it. I'm pretty sure this is why Self has schemed the team as he increasingly has the second half of the season.
The first half, he was building a team that would have Doke and Preston to muscle through inside on cyclic phases KU would not be shooting the trey above 40%.
But when Preston did the disappear-o for goulash land, well, it was type for Plan B.
This was when Malik really began to be tooled up for driving it. Same with Svi to lesser degree.
Self appears to have decided to live and live with three point shooting and combat dying with driving (and post dunks) on the cold nights.
Its working so far.
We CAN find a way through the coming trough, IF the other team doesn't shoot lights out from trey.
But even Self can't figure out how to beat a team shooting 50% from trey, when his team is shooting 20%.
At least I don't think he can. :-)
I'm guessing its a down cycle being softened by slow footed competition that has been giving KU too many easy looks.
I'm guessing we trough next game, probably 20-25%.
I'm guessing we try to dunk and drive and strip and block our way through it.
If we get our trough out of the way in Round 2 and some how win both games, then I reckon we win the ring.
But the trough game is going to be a female dog, no matter when it comes.
Frankly, the longer the trough delays coming, the tougher it will be to overcome, when it gets here, because, as you rightly point out, competition stiffens with each round.
Both Auburn and Clemson pose real problems for KU.
Auburn is coached by Bruce Pearl, who is a hugely emotional coach. His teams performances vary widely. There highs can be Deep Space high. Their lows can be Mariannas Trench low. This poses a serious problem for a coach like Self. Other things equal, Self would look at Round 2 and say no amp for Auburn and amp for the second Round 2 opponent. But because Auburn is coached by Pearl, he can't be certain Pearl won't geek the War Eagles into the Stratosphere for Self and KU. Self also has to take a stand on when he thinks the coming trough will occur: first, or second game round 2. These two factors will be so tough to anticipate that I think Self should amp for the first game of the second round, if its Auburn, and try to labor through the second game of the second round, hoping the trough will have passed and the team can find a way. Pearl's teams aren't particularly good. They are emotionally dangerous.
I haven't studied Clemson yet, so I can't say what Self will do in the event we play Clemson instead.
The decision will also depend on who is likely to be the second game opponent of round 2.
If the possible opponents of the second round are super good and super bad matchups, then Self HAS to send them out flat in the first game and amp for the second game, even though its going to be very tough to win a game flat in a trough.
But all of this is why Bill gets the big bucks.
He will make a sound decision for sure.
Whether it yields a win depends on whether the opposing team shoots lights out.
I hope the next trough hits against Ft Hays in our next pre-season...
Gorilla72 said:
I hope the next trough hits against Ft Hays in our next pre-season...
PHOF
Two of the "trough" games were away games. One "peak" was against the 86th best Defense. The other peak (WVU) was an anomaly imo. Especially considering it was a 3rd game in 3 days. Not really a good basis for any analysis. This is not a good statistical analysis just as a whole.
Just from a glance at KU's losses, 6 of the 7 losses came when our opponents shot the ball at a .483 percentage or higher. The one loss not giving that up, TTU. In which we gave up 15 offensive boards, turned the ball over 15 times (9 of them steals) and lost the free throw battle.
When KU plays good D, they win. We cannot give up better than .483 shooting or we lose. This team has actually shot remarkably consistent all season long.
Here is my basis. Comparing opponents 2pt % and KU's 3pt %, you can see whether or not we gained an advantage by shooting 3s that night. Out of 36 games, KU did not gain an advantage in 10 of those games. 7 of those games were our losses. 3 of them though, were wins. ISU, WVU, and UK. All tight games. So, according to my analysis (which is obviously subject to what variables I chose and the time I felt like spending on this) KU actually gains more of an advantage when they play solid 2pt defense than when shooting the ball well.
We actually won 6 of our 10 worst shooting nights. 3 of which, we still gained an advantage shooting the 3. However, all 7 losses came when giving up .512 or better from 2pt%. It is also harder to get in a rhythm in that scenario where you only play half-court offense.
KU must, play good D in order to win games. It has little to do with shooting. And, the math shows that this team is playing better D now, than at any point in the season. We have had 5 consecutive 3pt% advantage games. 9 of the last 10 we have gained an advantage. And, basically ever sense the Baylor game, this team has shot the ball 35% from 3 OR still gained an advantage with 3pt shooting.
We have yet to have a cold night AND play good D besides the UK game. By that I mean, under 30% from 3 and holding a team to under 50% from 2pt. This team seems to let one side feed the other. Good D creates Good O. Then, Good O creates confidence and adrenalin and in turn create more Good D. This team is playing better and more consistent than they have all year. I do not expect a "Trough" to come without allowing 50+% from 2pt. So, it won't be a cold night to blame if we lose in the E8 this year. It will be a piss-poor defensive showing.
Very interesting stats there.
Im going to say one thing about that. D'tae really did not have a good game against Seton. It is conceivable that our trough for trey % was against Penn thus far.
I agree. He was not at peak before the impact. After, he appeared unable to clear the cobwebs fully.
We are in some trouble if he has a concussion, which is how it appeared.
Again, it took Malik 2-3 games to really recover from his apparent concussion.
We may not see the real Devonte again until the Finals, if we make it that far.
This team has faced so much adversity!!! It is just amazing.
If it wins the Carney, it has to go down as tied with the '88 champs as the most remarkable team in KU history.
I'm even tempted to say its more remarkable, because the '88 team had Danny Manning as the hub and Manning was one of the 50 greatest collegiate basketball players of the second half century of the game.
This team is somehow doing it without a Manning.
These players are really, really admirable and special in the character department.
And it is a reminder to us all that you cannot judge a book by its cover.
I can remember when many of us, me included, were doubting this teams' toughness.
Even if they lose the next game, this team will rank in my memory as one of KU's toughest ever.
I don't recall another KU team overcoming this much adversity without a single superstar on the team.
They are just the most amazing bunch of individuals I have had the pleasure to watch play the game in a long time.
I so hope they can become champions, so that their incredible accomplishments so far, will be etched in memory for all time.