The rise of the three has everything to do with the dominance of the big man from yesteryear, but the rise of the three did not come from the NBA down.
It worked its way up.
A few months ago I was watching some old videos of high school state title games. I ran across a game from the mid 90's. I think it was the state title game, not sure which class, but probably 5A because I think one of the teams was McPherson. Anyway, McPherson (I think) started the game in a zone defense with literally all five defenders inside the three point arc. They had some good players on that team, so getting a good, clean shot inside the arc was basically impossible. If you remember back to the 90's, that was how a lot of teams played.
If you had a good big man, you could overcome that because you could warp the zone, but if not, you were probably stuck hoping for a mistake from the defense, or forcing up challenged shots in the paint. Those were your basic options offensively because not many teams used the three point shot.
But not every HS team has a good big man. Most don't. A lot of HS teams don't even have a true big man, as their biggest guy is maybe 6-3 or 6-4. But every team has a couple of decent guards. Some have more than that. And so a lot of teams in HS started spreading the floor playing four and five out. I remember Ty Lue's HS team playing basically 5 out in the mid 90's, with nothing but guards. Everybody could shoot and handle. I'm not sure they had anybody on that team over 6-2 or so. But they were a handful to guard because they could space the floor. If they tried to pound it inside with a traditional lineup, that team probably would have been okay (they had some really good guards, obviously), but not a state contender in Missouri. But spacing the floor like that, they went deep into the state playoffs in Missouri.
A few years later Wyandotte had a similar team that went deep into the state playoffs, and I don't think they had anyone over 6-3 on that squad.
Then you had the rise of the dribble drive motion, which is based on the old motion concept from Indiana, molded around the three point line with shooters that can handle or shoot on every kick out. That was actually developed by a HS coach in California who didn't have any size on his roster.
Well, what happens when guards are getting better and better at the lower levels of basketball, and learning to shoot the three as a weapon? They don't stop playing like that as they move up. They just continue to improve. And then Steph Curry happens at Davidson. All of a sudden David(son) can match up with Goliath (or at least get to the Elite Eight) because of a transcendent three point shooter.
NBA teams had started to scheme ways to get corner threes by now, having identified those as an extremely valuable shot. The corner three was so valuable that corner three specialists started popping up as a way to prevent teams from doubling the post from the corners. It also led to more spacing, creating driving lanes for talented slashers. Concepts like "gravity" (the ability to keep your man close to you even when you didn't have the ball) started to emerge. Good shooters had gravity even without the ball simply because you could not leave them to help on a drive, and the value of the three point shot made it preferable to give up a layup rather than an open corner three.
Then Morey-ball hit the NBA and it was time for the next evolution. There are basically three high value shots in basketball if you break down the percentages. Dunks/layups, threes and free throws. Everything else is low value because its still worth two points, but converted at a much lower rate.
The next transition is coming, but this time it will come from the top down. The NBA was the last to embrace the rise of the three because every NBA team had skilled interior players. Every NBA team had guys that could hit two point jumpers at a decent rate. There wasn't a necessity like there was at the HS level, where most players cannot consistently make shots when they are closely guarded.
NBA coaches are now developing defensive rotations and schemes to run guys off good three point shots. Once that type of defensive rotation trickles down to the college and eventually HS levels, we will see the mid range game open back up. It's all about counters and adjustments.
Threes were undervalued for a long time, and now they are on the verge of being overvalued. Once that happens, guys that can pump fake, take one dribble and pull up consistently will become incredibly valuable. That is the next evolution. We have already seen with the Rockets losing the last two years to Golden State that Houston's strategy works well during the regular season, but stalls in the playoffs when teams can strategize ways to take away their quality catch and shoot looks. The next adjustment is to evolve from a straight catch and shoot to a pump and pull up game.
We aren't headed for a game full of Durant's because we don't have enough Durant's in the world. The average height of an NBA player has stayed relatively flat for almost 30 years. The only difference has been that the margins have trimmed - fewer players over seven feet or under six feet, and almost everyone in the league between 6-2 and 6-10 (about 97% of the league).
If anything, we are heading for a day when everyone is interchangeable, with most players between 6-4 and 6-9 as the game further condenses. More and more players that are similar in size and skill. Fewer smaller guards, fewer big big men, tons of in between sized players with similar skillsets.
