Predicting the Nevada caucus. As @FarmerJayhawk has said, Culinary has been promoting "anyone but Bernie" because they don't want to give up their union insurance. Here's my pros and cons trying to make sense of who will win:
Bernie:
- Double digit lead in polls
- Says he will not give them something worse if he replaces their union insurance
- Has the most traction with latinos (Culinary is 50%+ latino and mostly women)
- Might turn out enough people outside Culinary (but Culinary has 60k members in a state that typically has 80k vote in caucus)
- Oppo is making a smear campaign out of "Bernie Bros" tweets, propagating that message among the latino community.
Biden:
- Has traction with minorities as well
- Doesn't threaten their healthcare
- Presumably not as impressive talking to people
Amy:
- Also a moderate, in some cases Culinary workers being interviewed are barely remembering the names, but voted for Joe and Amy because they are moderates.
- Caucus format allows people to vote for multiple candidates
Warren:
- Warren's strong performance will be spoiled by Amy. If this splits the educated female vote, it will sink them both. But she's still being touted as a progressive (that being a bad thing) and I think this will ultimately keep her momentum in check in Nevada.
Buttigieg:
- His campaign's support may be less volatile than the others in Nevada. A stable block in the low 10s.
I believe Bernie, Biden and Pete will be the top 3, with Warren and Amy cutting into each other's support, and it will be much closer than the double digit Bernie lead the polls are indicating. There are people who love Bernie who will vote with the union against him.