John Gasaway, over at ESPN, wrote an op ed called "Top 25 Players in College Hoops", where he ranked current players based on his own value system for how they impacted the college game instead of how NBA scouts rank players for draft status, based on their potential at the next level.
http://insider.espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/10330237/doug-mcdermott-leads-nation-top-25-players-college-basketball ↗ ↗
http://www2.kusports.com/weblogs/tale-tait/2014/jan/22/embiid-wiggins-crack-bloggers-list-of-to/ ↗ ↗
Gasaway concluded that the top player in college basketball is Doug McDermott. Joel Embiid finished 9th and Andrew Wiggins finished 21st.
I was unable to finish reading his story because I don't find enough value in the ESPN media to warrant paying to read their opinions. But... I'll go ahead and post my own ideas around this story and the rankings that came from it.
Doug McDermott is an outstanding college player. And I agree with most, that he may have a problem maintaining his current status at the next level. I'll only rate that as "maybe." McDermott might lack some of the athletic acrobatics we've all come to gush over, especially in highlight reels. But what is clear in McDermott's game is the amount of coaching he has been blessed with his entire life. His current head coach is his father, Greg McDermott. When it comes to fundamentals, Doug McDermott is head and shoulders above the rest of the field of top college players.
I do not need to go into detail about the qualities of Andrew Wiggins and Joel Embiid, because this is a site for Kansas basketball, and I'd like to avoid most of the redundancy in text we've all been posting for months. But I will mention a few things that are important for the sake of argument, when comparing these 3 players.
The biggest difference between McDermott and both Kansas players; college game experience. McDermott has seen more D1 court time than both Kansas players combined and times 3. We all value experience because it tends to help players achieve over all the challenges present in the game. Experienced players tend to play with more consistency and have had more time to develop an identity on the court. McDermott has a strong basketball identity; he is a scoring machine! He's averaging 24.8 points a game while shooting a remarkable 50.2% from the field, 44% from 3-point range. Doug is responsible for more than 30% of Creighton's offense and takes over 29% of Creighton's shots. Creighton runs their offense through Doug McDermott.
Joel Embiid's identity is in the developmental stage. As the season has progressed, Embiid has transformed from a bench player to a starter. As his game experience progresses, he is gaining identity as both a shot blocker and solid defender while also becoming an efficient offensive threat. His FG% is a staggering 67.9%. Embiid is averaging 11.1 points per game. He leads the team in blocks at 50, and is steadily increasing the amount of blocks he is making per game.
Andrew Wiggin's identity is also in the developmental stage. When he came to Kansas, his offensive prowess in high school projected his status to the top of college basketball as a freshman. Andrew is not only adjusting to D1 basketball, he is adjusting to Bill Self basketball. Self's game is defense, and Andrew has focused much of his efforts on the defensive side of the ball. Andrew has become a solid lock down defender. When Kansas needs to stop a single opponent from scoring, typically the assignment shifts to Andrew, and he is proving to be capable of stopping all kinds of scorers. Andrew is still trying to figure out how to reach a high level of effectiveness on offense. Still, as a freshman, he has a 43.9FG% and is averaging 15.2 points per game.
When comparing these three players on offense, as of this date, Doug McDermott is the clear winner and there is a long distance between these three players. But statistics don't explain everything. Creighton's offense is built around creating scoring opportunities for Doug. Their offense is tuned to perfection with on and off ball screens freeing Doug to do his thing. Kansas has one of the youngest teams in college basketball, so it is incapable of running at the same level of perfection as Creighton's. Kansas' offense is not built around one player, so fine-tuning to free up Andrew or Joel is not in the cards. The Kansas offense is being built to support more of a team offense, and you can go to the stat page to compare it with Creighton to realize that. It takes adding both Joel and Andrew's points per game to reach one-third of Kansas' total offense. So in many ways, it is not a fair comparison to pit Doug's offense against Joel's and Andrew's without noting the strategy of both team's offense. Doug's offense is more important to his team's success because they've structured it that way. That is further evidenced when comparing assist statistics. Doug averages about one-third more assists than Andrew and Joel, but he also possesses the ball far more on offensive possessions. Creighton plays their offense through Doug. However... when you factor in equal PT for Joel (to match Doug's PT), Joel matches Doug's assist while possessing the ball for probably half the time Doug has it.
I was unable to read Gasaway's story in it's entirety, but I'll assume his focus was on offense, because when you start looking at defensive stats, the advantage of McDermott's game suddenly dissolves. When comparing steals, Doug is in last place at only 6 steals in 19 games. Kansas has played one less game, but Andrew has 17 steals and Joel has 16. Doug is a post player so we have to compare blocked shots. Doug has only 3 blocks this season, compare that with Joel's 50 and Andrew's 16 (and Andrew is a guard). Remember, Kansas has played one less game... another important fact; Joel has averaged 9 less minutes a game than both Andrew and Doug.
In the rebounding department, Joel leads with 7.4 followed by Doug at 7.1 and Andrew at 6.1. What has to be noted is Joel's fewer minutes. If you factor in added minutes to equal both Andrew's and Doug's minutes, Joel suddenly averages 10.3 RPG. While we are adjusting for minutes we need to look at all the stats; Joel suddenly averages 15.5 PPG, with 70 blocks and 22 steals!
One last thing to consider, we are only at mid-season. Doug is a senior, and we should expect that his growth potential has leveled off. His upside is limited because he has already largely maximized his college game by tweaking it for 4 years. Andrew and Joel are freshmen who are just going through their first tweaks at the D1 level. We should expect more improvement from their games moving forward this year. And if we only go off of the improvements made recently, we should expect sizable gains moving forward.
So when taking a broader look at these 3 players, I'd rate them like this:
Doug McDermott means the most to his team and will remain with this edge over Andrew Wiggins and Joel Embiid throughout the year. Kansas has more talent and has not focused their offense around just one player. Consider the structure of these two teams and Doug will always win this category because it is built into the philosophy of Creighton.
The ranking of top player today (mid-season) I'd give a slight edge to Joel Embiid, with Doug McDermott close behind, followed by Andrew Wiggins closely behind Doug. Doug is an excellent offensive player and Creighton has maximized his value by building their structure around him, but take him out of that advantage and his value as a player is diminished below Joel, especially because he doesn't have much of an impact on the defensive side of the ball. And on offense, imagine if Kansas can take advantage of Joel's remarkable 67.9 FG% by making Joel a bigger part of Kansas' offense? If Kansas starts weighing Joel's offense only at half of the importance Creighton gives to Doug, Joel's offensive stats will skyrocket to showcase his value on offense far over every current D1 player!
Moving forward, I would project both Joel and Andrew to surpass Doug because both Kansas players contribute well on both sides of the ball, and they do it without a team structure built around promoting their talents individually. Bill Self is likely to tweak his offense to better take advantage of both players' strengths which will enhance their statistics. Both Kansas players are bound to improve their fundamentals as they gain more experience, taking away the one big advantage Doug has possessed up until now.
One last thing, lets not forget the comparison of SOS's between Creighton and Kansas up until now. Kansas is #1 while Creighton is #25 (ESPN). Weigh that in to these comparisons and it further illustrates where these players rank against each other. Creighton's schedule is tough, but a far distance from the hardest schedule in America!
Imagine it is late March, and all D1 coaches are polled across America to pick their starting 5 from every player currently in college basketball. I believe this may be the best way to decide where the top players rank within the college game and at the right time of year to assess the performance of each player for the year.
